It is nice to see that monthly BTC price performance chart from that above-linked article.
 


Earlier I had a post from my memory in which I was thinking (and speculating out loud) that last year had both August and September in the positive, but then when I look at the actual chart of the actual numbers, I see that August was negative and September was positive, yet August was a baby negative and September was not a big positive, yet I recall that bitcoin's performance last August and September ended up being much better relative to how negative the sentiment was at the time about how August and September would perform, August ended up being way less negative than what people were speculating that it was going to be and September was not greatly positive, so we largely had flat through August and September last year which was surely seemingly better than expectations.. and at that time the BTC price was bouncing in a kind of local bottom and we hit the local bottom of $49,577 at the beginning of August but then we ended September in the mid-$60ks.

We still cannot know for sure how the future is going to work out by looking at the past, but we can still see some quite interesting price performances in which some months had very high percentages in their performance and then other months of low percentage performance, but still maybe several months in a row of positive performance that ends up adding up when we look at the prices that are underlying those percentage numbers.



Yep.  There is nothing wrong with doing some of the math yourself or even verifying that the calculator is coming up with the right numbers, since sometimes the calculators are not calculating properly.  Also sometimes you might use the calculator to give you some rough ideas for a certain period of time and even changing various assumptions for different periods of time and then adding up the numbers.

So maybe we have a guy who might have started out investing 6 years ago, and he might have started out with $25 per week and then each year he doubled his weekly amount, we can use the tool to hone in on the numbers, and we can see that he would have had done better than the guy who kept his amount flat.. but we also likely would see that historically any guy who increases his investment amount, even doubling ever year, still would have had been way better off to try to front-load ihis investment towards the beginning, since even his increases of doubling every year would not have had done as well as investing more in the beginning.

At the same time, guys can ONLY do what they are able to do, since it is better to invest within your means rather than overdoing it and end up recking yourself and ending up with  way lower quantities of bitcoin based on overdoing it... Sometimes it can be difficult to measure if we might have had over done it until it is too late, so frequently as we are growing our bitcoin investment, we likely need to figure out ways to build and maintain back up funds so that we can have money available in case we make mistakes and so that our bitcoin does not end up servicing as a back up fund, especially if we might be investing 4-10 years or longer, and many of the guys here who have done the best have had investment timelines of greater than a couple of cycles and they might have spent quite a bit of time building their bitcoin in one or two cycles without trading and/or selling, just ongoingly buying and/or HODLing during periods that they might have had run out of money.



DCA largely describes a way of buying bitcoin over a period of time, so you can use DCA to establish a long term position or you can use it to trade.. so that maybe you buy your bitcoin over a period of time and then you try to trade the bitcoin to buy back cheaper.

I don't recommend trying to trade bitcoin, especially while you are still building your portfolio, which can take a cycle or two or more to really build it up to a sizable amount.

But yeah in the end you can use DCA however, you like, and surely some folks will assert that they are investing even though they are trading, so in that respect, I consider anyone who either has a short timeline of less than 4 years as a trader, and I also consider anyone who builds up his bitcoin holding and then plans to sell all of it later down the road as a trader as well.. Of course, the guy who sells with an expectation of buying back cheaper would be a trader, too... I don't recommend trading, even though a lot of guys do it (or try to do it), and then end up performing way worse than the guy who had focused on ongoing accumulating bitcoin through buying only... And, the results are more clear over longer and longer periods of time, such as over a couple of cycles, it becomes quite difficult that a trader could have had outperformed the investor over a couple of cycles, and even if he did, what is the purpose?  The investor has such great results over a couple of cycles that it seems merely greedy to hope for or to expect greater results than what the investor had been able to achieve over a couple of cycles.

The first whole cycle of building up a bitcoin holding can be amongst the toughest, since as you are building up your bitcoin holdings, you can have extended periods that either your bitcoin is not in very good profits or it might even be in the negative, and there is no guarantee that it is going to recover, yet still we can pick our position size and continue to invest in bitcoin and hopefully learn about bitcoin and likely see that many of us will tend to build our conviction with time and through studying bitcoin the strength of our investment thesis likely will get stronger.... yet we can still invest in accordance with the level of our conviction, and figure out an amount that is comfortable to us, whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that is comfortable for us in light of our conviction, and another advantage of DCA is that it is very adjustable, so that we can figure out a weekly amount that fits both our level of conviction and our financial circumstances (such as how much discretionary income we have).



DCA is quite a adaptable for anyone who has discretionary income coming in on a regular basis, whether they are rich or poor, DCA can be customized to your situation.  

Yet anyone can also run across situations where they might receive some extra money, so sometimes it can be helpful to consider lump sum and/or buying on dips as possible ways to supplement your DCA strategy.

Surely one of the advantages of DCA can also be that a person can figure out ways to invest, and also to feel that he is not disrupting his life too much, yet sure the more aggressive your DCA strategy, then the more you might have to have even better cashflow management skills and practices so that you don't end up overdoing it or making mistakes where you spend beyond your discretionary income and you don't have any back up funds.

Historically, there have been some guys who have gone overboard with their investing, even when they have been using some variation of DCA to buy into bitcoin, and they end up being overaggressive and/or not having sufficient back up funds.



Every cycle there end up being ways that people blow up when the market turns.

So, yeah, you are correct that bitcoin can be greatly profitable, and many times we also have to protect ourselves from not getting too greedy and perhaps mostly holding our own keys rather than putting our bitcoin with someone else and they are promising even greater returns.  We have to figure out some balance that works for us.  I think that there are going to be some blow ups with some of those place in which guys are not holding their own keys, even though some might also outperform bitcoin for certain periods of time.

But, yeah those products also create demand on bitcoin and causes the bitcoin price to go up, which can also be a disadvantage to anyone trying to accumulate bitcoin to have to pay higher prices because companies, governments and even status quo rich people are prematurely driving the BTC price up... .. yet at the same time, there is not a whole hell of a lot that normies can do except to try to accumulate bitcoin through his own resources and to hope to not get recked in the process in which there are likely going to continue to be ups and downs in bitcoin.


That is true.  Bitcoin is quite likely to outperform cash and other investments.. and realistically we likely should know that cash loses value, even if there might be an interest rate, the cash may well be losing value at a greater rate than the interest rate.  So we have to be careful not to be lulled into nomiinal rates.

I don't know if you recall bitcoin's dip in price in 2022, and at that time, the US Government was increasing its rates on some of its T-blills and offering higher rates like 5% or more... but guys who got lured into those products in 2022 rather than bitcoin, got screwed.. even though surely there can be ways to use some of those products to your advantage, but there can be big mistakes that are made when guys hold too much value in cash and they fail/refuse to establish a sufficient/adequate stake in bitcoin.  We likely realize that the more value we build up, we likely are going to have value in bitcoin and cash and perhaps in other assets too... and even in our earliest of stages of building our bitcoin holdings we need to keep some money in cash since our bills are likely paid through some kind of local fiat. yet a balance need to be reached, and sure maybe sometimes we can build up our cash reserves to be 3-6 months, but it hardly makes any sense if we build up our cash reserves prior to having any bitcoin,

so if we have absolutely no bitcoin or ONLY small amounts of bitcoin then we may well build up our cash reserves and our bitcoin simultaneously, and then maybe once our cash reservers are around 3 months of our expenses, then we might focus more on just building bitcoin, and sure maybe we can still add to some of our cash reserves as our bitcoin investment gets bigger too... yet at the same time bitcoin's value can go up and down so the amount that we put into it can vary quite a bit from how its value might change in terms of going up and down. and sure we can keep track of these matters in terms of where we are keeping our value and how it might be changing in value over time... we can gamify our own monitoring of changes in our wealth and how we may well be ongoingly building our bitcoin investment until we get to a point that we have enough or more than enough.


Sometimes mistakes are made, and I am not sure if they are more likely to be made when the money flows in too easily.

There are some folks who get rich quickly and they figure out some ways to make sure that they don't overdo it and that they are not making egregious mistakes.

I am sure that there are many of us in bitcoin who we might have had made some mistakes along the way that we regret, and they might have had even been pretty big.. so maybe instead of having 15 bitcoin, we only have 9 bitcoin or maybe we only have 0.63 bitcoin... so we think about how we might have been able to either accumulate more bitcoin or at least to better preserve the quantity of bitcoin that we had accumulated up to that point that we might have had realized our mistake.

So maybe the guy with 9 bitcoin had 15 bitcoin at one time, but he thought that he could do x, y or z, and then he ends up with only 9 BTC and realizing that he can never get back to 15 BTC based on his own financial circumstances.  Of course, the mindrust situation comes to mind for some of us, too.  In early 2020, 10 BTC went from $100k in value to $40k in value .. and if we have around $40k invested into it, we might have had been quite nervous from such a decrease in value.  

Of course, right now 10 BTC has a market value of around $1.13 million and a 200-WMA valuation of $520k, so surely based on the 200-WMA, the 10 BTC could support an income of $52k per year, yet it seems to me that by mid 2026 10 BTC should be able to support a sustainable withdrawal income of $80k per year.. .. so sometimes when mistakes are made it can take a long time to get back there, and it actually might become impossible to get back to the pre-mistake location.

A lot of ups and downs have gone on in bitcoin in the past 5-ish years.. and surely, each of us might have had ONLY so much of an income that we were able to put into bitcoin, so it could be more painful to think about our not having had done than we could have done, rather than we did as much as we could have, even though we might have also made a few mistakes, and we might not have had been able to learn from our mistakes unless they were of a significantly large enough size to shock us into learning.  Sometimes we might make mistakes, but not realize the ramifications and/or impact of the mistake for several years... by the time it is too late to fix the mistake and we can ONLY hopefully learn the right lesson for going forward, and some folks do not even learn the right lesson for going forward.

Depende de como será feito o projeto.. eu duvido que será algo tão ruim quanto o PayPal que expõe tudo.

Penso que mesmo com KYC, cada usuário pode trabalhar com um conjunto de endereços (então será pseudo-anônimo).. mas como o público geral não gosta desses endereços cheios de números e letras, o Google deve empurrar uns NFTs como ENS e permitir que você crie um "bitmover.gcul" para receber pagamentos de estranhos, "bob.gcul" para familiares/amigos e "PadariaDoCafé.gcul" para seu negócio.. você mesmo falou que eles sabem como entregar bons produtos e essas ferramentas já existem.

Quanto à privacidade, será um novo Windows vs Linux.. já sabemos quem vai vencer.


Google possui todos os jogos do Google Play, também vejo eles como vencedores.. DeFi deve continuar nas mãos de redes abertas mesmo já que é um público muito seleto, mas deve pegar todo público das finanças tradicionais (já fecharam parceria com o CME, fonte: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cme-group-will-introduce-tokenization-technology-to-enhance-capital-market-efficiency-using-google-clouds-new-universal-ledger-302410343.html)

Estou ansioso para ver o que vai ser essa blockchain do Google.. tenho expectativas altas.

If you want to explore that option on where you want to transfer your email try this https://proton.me/support/account/migrate

Although I never tried that and used proton mail for short time period only and I always think that Gmail is much handy also easy to use at my end. Receive lots of spam and I manage to block them immediately. The emails I entertaining are those bonuses given by casinos like Betfury I play or the other platforms which I usually using.

CCE.Cash is a Fast Automatic Exchange accepting .Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, XMR, TRX, USDT., etc. Users can quickly and anonymously complete currency exchange without registering. Its core features are: automation, simplicity, and security. A simple 2-step guide will help you quickly get familiar with the functionality.

• Rules/Prizes:

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ The winner will receive a prize of $30 in BTC 🎁
➥ You can choose 2 SLOTS if you posted comments in the ANN topic before the raffle announcement.
➥ After selecting a block, we will use the Bitmover tool to determine the winner.

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• Application:

I still don’t explore this email because gmail is my first email when I started exploring crypto casino online. But I do encounter some friend that suggest this email instead of gmail.

My only worries is all my casino account is already connected to a gmail account. Is it possible to transfer email to protonmail?

I do agree that I received a lot of spams on my gmail even if my email was created only for single casino account.

It is the high volatility that makes Bitcoin so attractive for investment. Investors, analyzing previous cycles, already understand what to expect in the future, and many are waiting for a price decline to buy in, not fearing it, since it will be followed by a period where the price rises above all previous peaks.

Hey, I looked into your original thread and you said the way you found out in 2015 that you had bitcoin on your account is because someone from Cloudbet emailed you saying you have bitcoin?

I looked into our records and no such email exists, are you sure it was from us and not an external scammer? What is your username on that account?

We would love to help but I'm not seeing a record for this. As this is not a customer service thread, can you email support@cloudbet.com. I've informed them you will be messaging them.

Your welcome apogio

Our main focus is delivering XMR; however, the way we provide it is not the same as a typical instant swap service. Major swap services (like Changelly, ChangeNow, FixedFloat, Morphtoken and other resellers which you think they have their own liquidity but actually its a lie ) they have tags such as FBI/LA, which likely point to the local FBI offices able to request their swap records.

Centralized exchanges (CEXs) and certain crypto payment processors are known to share user IPs and transaction details directly with Chainalysis.
They usually transmits even xmr swap data straight to Chainalysis, and their systems are tightly integrated, enabling near-instant correlation of amounts across different coins.

On top of this, they operated their own nodes to gather data. For instance, the site moneroworld.com reportedly logged RPC requests, which allowed them to link transactions to user IP addresses. They also refined their analysis by filtering out “decoy” outputs in Monero, determining which ones were already spent at the time of mixing.

Yes some clients do interest in other type of crypto but those are very small amount between $100 to 50k, big whales always go for XMR.

There’s a lot more I could discuss, but since this is a public thread, I can’t share everything for OPSEC reasons.

I wouldn't say it's boring, imo, more like stable

Volatility becomes less and less relevant anyways, because to move BTC in any direction is a task of in itself.

Yes that was the question and the answer is very much appreciated.
I was wondering if people mainly treat you as an XMR service, meaning that they appreciate their privacy and try to maintain it, or if the majority of people are still interested in other types of crypto (SOL, ETH etc.)
Your answe is clear though, you shouldn't provide actual results, just percentage estimations, and even for these I was asking out of curiosity, so...

Yea we already do this regularly in the Collectibles board. We dont use the
tool created by bitmover.

Create a thread for the raffle

The second post is usually reserved for the list of entries and each can be marked
paid etc. This also serves as a kind of time stamp where any alteration after the raffle
has taken place is visible.

Run the block chain, last two digits of a chosen block call the winner. It has to be two
digits at least as anyone just choosing numbers 1 to 9 have an unfair advantage.
I.E 11, 21, 31, 41 etc. So chosen numbers can be from 01 onwards.

---

Its a good idea by the OP, the difference in the Collectibles board is that
almost everyone has trust rating!

Olhando para os conceitos básicos do setor das criptomoedas, acho que isso tem tudo de menos seguro. É fazer tudo o que se diz logo no primeiro dia para não fazer.

Olhando para os conceitos de usabilidade, sem duvida é um modelo interessante e util para tudo ficar mais pratico.

Cabe a cada um avaliar e utilizar da forma mais adequada. Por exemplo, para fundos que estão sempre a ser movimentados, pode ser interessante, mas para hold já nem tanto.




Isso é um facto.

Acredito que já aconteceu com todos, fazer uma transação e até por a taxa um pouco mais alta para passar "rapido" porque precisa, e é exatamente nesse momento que todo o mundo se lembra de fazer uma transação. A mempool fica entupida e a sua taxa passa de boa a péssima em segundos, e vai ter de esperar.

Sabemos que são as regras do "jogo", mas acaba por ser chato as vezes. Tudo bem, vamos lidando.

Agora UX, o Bitcoin e afins não são. Acho que depois entra-se naquele dilema do pratico vs segurança. Normalmente a malta mais geek ligada a segurança, liga pouco para o UX, eles passam a vida na linha de comandos. Estão tão habituados a isso, que nem percebem o valor do UX.

De facto era preciso entrar nos devs do Bitcoin, algum designer de confiança, para melhorar esse campo sem comprometer a segurança.

Hello @bitmover,

If this is regarding what apogio was asking, let me respond: I cannot agree to publicly list our reserves, as I believe this is inappropriate and could potentially harm our service. This concern has even been confirmed by eXch, which have seen that providing proof of reserves has caused difficulties, including transactions being flagged by various analysis teams.

Many people have also added me on SimpleX, asking for our wallet address where funds are held. Sorry, but this is a mistake we will not repeat.

What I can share is our largest reserve is in XMR, followed by BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, DASH, USDT, and others. However, as I mentioned before, our main focus is always on XMR, prioritizing getting secure way.

Please note that, Monero is private by design, but your internet connection and service choices can give you away. Don’t trust third-party/public nodes run your own node whenever possible.

It's not correct to say Bitcoin is ALREADY LEGAL GLOBALLY because you can easily see a fact that there are countries consider Bitcoin is Illegal or Alegal or Restricted.
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/legality-map
https://coin.dance/poli/legality

It is true to say that Bitcoin adoption and its legal status have become bigger and better over years not it has yet reached to globally legal or legal tender.

Volatility is beauty and attraction of the market and if a market has no volatility, it's more like a dead market or boring market that is not able to attract investors and traders.

DCA is a very good investment strategy for your investment entries and exits (withdrawals).
For entries, use this https://costavg.com/
For exits, withdrawals, use this https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

I sent documents several times, there is no investigation, it's account where 1.7 BTC left in 2015 when it was around $300 and in 2017 they alow me withdraw 0.2 BTC (I withdrawal it to check if it would arrive) and after that they blocked the login and aks for all possible documents and when they realized that everything is correct they always send the same email that they will let me know when the investigation is end. They simply don't want to pay because they are scammers.

what URL were you using when you saw this? For me it looks totally fine.
[/quote]
That very link in the post.

---

Ever since you got the message from the support that they are carrying out an investigation. Have you tried to reach out to them more or so recently? What was/has been their response about the investigation?

1.5 BTC is now worth

I don't think it matters how old someone is to be honest.  People who save money will save it and people who spend it will spend it.  I was a penny pincher when I was a kid and I still am today.  I also know people in their 70s and 80s that you could give a million dollars to and they would just use it to dig themselves deeper in debt.  So part of me thinks the younger the better, although for people who aren't financially forward thinking it could be a disaster. 

Maybe as part of a will it could include taking a personal finance class before receiving the money.

Don't think about profit or loss, gamble responsibly, gamble only for entertainment, if you still think about profit, it means you put a lot of money at stake and the result is that you will not be willing to lose that money, have fun in gambling, let go of what is lost, enjoy what comes

On Splash.tf, after the exchange has been completed, the "delete order" button appears, which most likely removes all details of the transaction. We can only assume that they do not keep any log.

It was a different case with eXch, because all their payout transactions came from the same address, and all their addresses had a name tag. So it was not necessary to be a high technical expert to recognise where the coins came from.

Some people recommend to give 1/3 at age 30, 1/3 at 35 and 1/3 at 40 or 1/2 at 30 and 1/2 at 40.
Giving money to someone when they are 60 years old is not optimal, imho, but I agree about early-mid twenties.

The trouble with bequeathing money to people in their 20s is that far too often it gets wasted on things like cars, clothing, restaurant meals, etc.

It's much better to wait until they're 40 when they're entering the prime of their lives and are more likely to use the money wisely. Most people are grown up by the time they reach their 40s. By then they've probably learned the value of work and thriftiness.

If we are thinking about bitcoin as an investment and potentially as a life time investment, then it hardly makes any sense to refer to selling bitcoin in blanket kinds of ways, since that would turn a guys bitocin into either a trade or converting into some inferior asset and/or some inferior currency.

Why would a guy spend 10-ish years building up his bitcoin stash, and then sell all or most of it?  Sounds like a lack of perspective if guys are thinking about their bitcoin stash in those kinds of ways.


I agree with this part of what you are saying Nightwatchmare.

Even though guys are at various points in their bitcoin accumulation journey, there are still a lot of newbies who likely need to continue to focus on ongoing buying of bitcoin for 1-2 cycles before they might start to adjust their bitcoin accumulation approach based on their having had accumulated a decently good stash of bitcoin.  Even guys who are able to accumulate bitcoin at very high levels, such as 25% of their income, they still might need more than a whole bitcoin cycle to get to a sufficiently decent enough size stash that they might start to slow down in their bitcoin accumulation.


So far in bitcoin's history, part of the dynamics that may well end up taking place is that a guy's increase in income might not even come close to keeping pace with the appreciation in bitcoin, especially if he had been investing 8-10 years or longer.   So such a guy may well even be able to increase the amount that he contributes to buying bitcoin, such as if he had been buying $25 per week in the beginning, and then each year maybe he even raises his weekly amount of bitcoin buys by 50%, yet he may well find that even his seemingly great increases in his bitcoin purchase amounts (as measured in dollars) is not getting him even close to as much BTC as he was getting in his earlier days, even when the amount that he was buying in dollars was way lower.

So at a certain point he might not find it economical to continue to buy bitcoin, even if the guy might have had started accumulating bitcoin with a salary around $25k and then after 10 years maybe his salary is close to $100k, but it still might not make much sense anymore to continue to buy bitcoin.  Guys may welll differ in their judgment, yet they might have pretty strong facts staring them in the face.

So then they start to transition between being in an accumulation stage and then being in a maintenance stage and then later starting to be in  a sustainable income stage.

Right now, a guy who has gotten up to 15 BTC, he would be able to perpetually sustain an income at about $78k per year, yet even if that same guy completely stopped accumulating bitcoin and just planned to start some kind of sustainable withdraw in 4 years (based on the same quantity of having had gotten 15 bitcoin). It may well be the case that in mid-2029, he would be able to sustain an income of $273k per year.. based on a projected 200-WMA that may well be right around $182k by mid-2029.  Once we start to calculate our valuations based on the 200-WMA, we end up being in quite a strong position once our valuations start to be able to support the level of income that we would like to get..and we can even be skeptical of such projections and we can project more conservative levels, and still likely be in a good place if we might have had reached a certain quantity of BTC that is close to reaching our target levels, yet we would be a bit more comfortable if our quantity of BTC were to be able to exceed our target quantity levels... and we should measure that with a combination of how many BTC that we have and the 200-WMA (bottom prices) rather than getting distracted by BTC spot prices that tend to fluctuate all over the place.


I gave a steady amount through the past 10 years, yet for sure, we likely realize that if a guy invests a steady amount into bitcoin, the earlier years will have done most of the BTC accumulation, and sure there are guys who attempt to make up for their past mistakes (of being too whimpy in their earlier BTC accumulation years), yet it can be difficult to make up increasing their investment amounts by 3x, 5x, 10x or even 20x because if we measure the bitcoin price so far back, like 8 to 10 years previously, we will likely tend to find that our costs per BTC have gone up way faster than our income can even hope to catch up to the past prices as compared with today.. so 10 years ago BTC prices were around $250 per BTC (which is around 0.25% of today's prices, and/or today's prices are around 450x higher) and 8 years ago BTC prices were around $3,500 (which is around 3.1% of today's prices, and/or today's prices are around 32.2x higher).. so the difference in what is even possible is great and surely such differences are not guaranteed to continue to be so great in the future as compared to what they ended up being in the past, and so we can ONLY do what we are able to do in the present in terms of the choices that we make in regards to how aggressive we choose (or are able) to be in the beginning of our investment into bitcoin.

I wasn't talking about the book. I was commenting  on the concept of spending (or donating) all your wealth yourself instead of leaving something for your heirs to spend or donate.

Inter-generational wealth is a good thing. A good will is important.

Será que tudo isso um dia vai mudar no futuro? Pois 10 anos atrás eu pensava que ia melhorar muito a UX, mas parece que piorou mais ainda, antes era mais simples porque só tinha BTC, LTC, ETH, DOGE e não essas bombas de hoje. As stablecoins só ficaram conhecidas em 2017.

Hoje quando você abre uma carteira, está toda poluída com informações que o usuário (principalmente o brasileiro) não usa tanto, como aquele maldito botão de trocar ou comprar criptomoedas diretamente em serviços de terceiros, pra nós brasileiros não compensa por causa das taxas. Pra achar o botão de receber cripto, você tem que fazer mais de 2 cliques, selecionar a cripto, selecionar a conta (exemplo disso, ledger live).

E fazer o backup de 12 palavras então? Isso parece que não entra na cabeça das pessoas, ou elas perdem ou não fazem.

KYC e AML garantem a segurança dos usuários. Se a plataforma está em conformidade com o compliance, primeiro, você não receberá fundos "sujos" na sua conta, o que poderia resultar em bloqueios em outras plataformas. Em segundo lugar, a empresa é legítima, o que significa que ela não tem problemas legais e há menos probabilidade de a plataforma ser um golpe. Esses são os pontos mais importantes que garantem a estabilidade e a segurança na plataforma.

A artigo foi escrito especificamente para o fórum e a IA foi utilizada apenas para a tradução do conteúdo do inglês para o português. Portanto, sim, pode haver alguns erros, pedimos desculpas por isso.

Dá uma olhada no Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL) anunciado hoje: https://cloud.google.com/startup/beyond-stablecoins?hl=pt_br#chapter-8

Vai ser permissioned com KYC.. mas é o que você falou, eles sabem o que fazem.. não vai ter uma moeda por trás, como ETH ou SOL, e as taxas serão "estáveis, transparentes e faturadas mensalmente".. muito melhor do que precisar comprar uma shitcoin.

A Circle anunciou uma blockchain parecida com isso neste mês, a Arc, com taxas pagas em USDC.. vejo essa nova geração como uma grande ameaça pro Ethereum, Tron e outros projetos.

 I've lived similarly but really only when it comes to my own wants and needs but sometimes you gotta splurge to make life a little more interesting.

it is pretty much I am an asshole fuck all of you.

Gracias como siempre, TryNinja!

Aprovecho, esta vez sí, que todavía quedan huecos libres, para citar a los asiduos famososMuertos y darxiaomi y que les dé tiempo a participar.

Si conocen de alguien más que pueda estar interesado, sed libres de citarles también. Aparte por supuesto de quienes se pasen por aquí y vean el anuncio de arriba, que cumplan los requisitos y quieran participar.

Indeed, that's what that book is about. Not greedy "use it up to the last cent", which is difficult, impractical, and outright nasty IMO, but "do start to consider enjoying, and plan for it" and "manage your donations, charitable or not, while you're still around".

Les amis, j'ai décidé de partager avec vous un nouveau concours de Whale ! 😜

Hi sa lahat! Nag-post lang si Whale ng bagong paligsahan. Good luck! 😜

Ludzie, postanowiłem podzielić się z Wami nowym konkursem od Whale! 😊

Hey! În caz că l-ați ratat, secțiunea de jocuri și runde este plină de concursuri noi. 👻

Hello Everyone! Whale has just published a new contest. Good luck! 😊

Gente, no hay tantos lugares como parece, así que apresúrense y participen. 😊

Leute, es gibt nicht so viele Plätze, wie es scheint, also beeilt euch und macht mit. 😊

Olá pessoal! Caso tenham perdido, o board Games and Rounds está cheio de concursos dO wHALE.

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• Rules:

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Why do we need to go 1,000 years into the future?  How might that either be relevant or how could we have any idea of how that far into the future might play out except potentially hypothesizing in a directional way.

Isn't more relevant to think about 4-10 years in a more concrete way, and yeah maybe 30-50 years could have some level of relevance, yet the further we go out, we have to be careful in regards to figuring out how those further out times might affect our actions in current times.


Your math comes off as mostly correct, yet we still might presume even a person who invested $100 per week into bitcoin for 10 years, then he would have had invested around $104k, so it is unlikely that he would have accumulated even half of a bitcoin. Perhaps after 10 years, he might have had accumulated in the ballpark of 0.25 BTC, yet of course, each of us can ONLY do what we can do, and if we have money from a signature campaign, we also might have money from other sources.  We cannot necessarily count on the pay rate of the signature campaign continuing at a similar rate, even if we might ongoingly try to make sure that we are participating in the higher paying of the signature campaigns.

Another thing, you cannot just say proclaim that since the bitcoin price went up 5x in the past 3 years that the person's bitcoin holdings would have had gone up by 5x unless they were able to invest all of their money at a lump sum at a low price and then the bitcoin price goes up 5x after they had already established their stake in bitcoin.  You can look at the kinds of numbers you get on a DCA calculator.

So even a guy who had invested $100 per week over the past two cycles (let's say from April 11, 2017 until April 11, 2025) , he would have had invested right around $42k and he would have accumulated right around 4 BTC. Surely not a bad place to be, but he would not have had been even close to the guy who already had $42k and who had invested $42k at the beginning of the period, in April 2017.  The guy who lump summed into the investment would have been able to accumulate 34 bitcoin from the same $42k invested.

Each of us can ONLY do what we can, and frequently DCA is the best option that we have available to ourselves both financially and psychologically.. yet at the same time, there are some guys who can scrape together some extra money to both lump sum and to front load their investment earlier in the timeline.. yet if you frontload invest earlier in the timeline and the BTC price ends up going down, you may well regret that you did not hold some of that lump sum back and to perhaps invest with DCA and/or with buying on dips with part of the lump sum amount that you had available at the time that you got started investing into bitcoin.

Part of the real world dilemma is that guys don't tend to have $42k just sitting around that they are able to invest, and their best ability to build their investment is just to invest whatever they are able to invest as they money is coming in..which will tend to be some variation of DCA and maybe every once is a while they will have extra money coming to them that they might divide up into DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips..


I did a quickie look at Coinbase fees and it appears to be 0.6% on each side...  so if you have one trade that involves both selling and buying back (or buying and then selling) it would add up to 1.2% for both ends of the trade.. which is not outrageous since there are two trades involved.


https://help.coinbase.com/en/exchange/trading-and-funding/exchange-fees


You have described part of my problem with the idea of of dying on zero and the way that bitmover seems to be outlining it, and also previous discussions that I have had with him on the matter (through public posts).  

Of course, I don't want to pick on anyone in particular, and I am largely bothered with the idea of both being unable to time your death as you suggested, yet it seems to be used as a way to end up cashing out way too much too soon and not getting the actual benefits of the little more effort that comes from creating a sustainable withdrawal system, and bitcoin seems to have had made sustainable withdrawal so easy since we likely need way less wealth than we would in traditional investment systems that really ONLY allow 4% annual withdrawal, yet if we valuate our bitcoin holdings based on the 200-WMA (bottom prices) then we likely can create and maintain sustainable withdrawal systems without overly depleting our principle.

Of course, no investment is completely guaranteed, so we can potentially make adjustments to our bitcoin investment as we are withdrawing from it in the event that either we believe that we are withdrawing too much too soon or on the other hand if we purposefully decide to live it up in the event that we might have some end date in mind.. which even people who know about their health condition, they could still end up outliving expectations, which would be sad to outlive our money, which I think easily ends up happening to folks who get overly excited to be spending too much too soon rather than attempting to employ some kind of a sustainable withdrawal.

Dying with zero is pretty pathetic and greedy.

Perhaps you should think about others who could use your excess wealth.

I can accept the fact that leaving it to immature young family members could be a waste but maybe you can think of more responsible recipients who could put it to good use.

Enjoy the benefits of your success while you're alive but don't assume you'll be able to time your lifespan to use up your wealth. You might live longer than you think. Keeping enough for a good future is essential. That means leaving some behind.

Think about what you want to happen to what's left behind.

Yes, and there are still those players who are slots and sports bettors who move their bankroll to the bookmaker and regardless of the competition, they continue betting there and getting the odds or participating in exclusive slots.

Of course, the greater the extreme the lower the chances, and so initially you seemed to be saying that 300% to 400% were not possible even from now until 2030... so I was attempting to initially go with that.

The tool is not talking about when the price might get to any of the various levels, but instead helping to provide some guidelines in order to attempt to contextualize where we are at and how BIG of a deal it might be since both the spot price and the 200-WMA are continuously bouncing around, yet the 200-WMA is ongoingly seeming to go up, yet at some points in time going up faster than other times, yet if the gap between BTC's spot price and the 200-WMA gets too large, then surely having such tool helps to highlight the fact that the bigger the gap then the more significant the place that we are is.. .even if having such gap might only last for a day or two.  

If we don't have the tool, we might lose our bearing and not recognize the significance of what we are seeing, especially if we are ONLY looking at the spot price moving around without having it within the context of how it compares with the 200-WMA.  

People frequently seem to get lost by the spot price and fail to have grounding, which hopefully our tool helps to give us grounding while it is happening, yet our being able to use the tool to attempt to make historical comparisons.


I am going to assume that the dollar is going to remain the strongest of the various shitty fiat currencies, and sure there could be some extremes in which the dollar loses its dominance status amongst the various shitty fiat currencies, yet there is no reason for us to get distracted by those various scenarios and to overly complicate our attempts to use the tool.  Sure, we can take the matter of the debasement of the dollar into account, yet by now we should already know that bitcoin's changes in valuations is not merely a product of the dollars devaluation but also due to the power of various fundamental bitcoin attributes.  

Bitcoin is not a mature asset, and we should not be trying to act as if it is, and so part of bitcoin's ongoing appreciation and its expected future appreciation has to do with its ongoing growth and adoption.. which might sometimes be difficult to recognize and/or appreciate in shorter time periods.. and surely any time we could end up spiraliing into some outrageous scenario that might not even only be a product of Armageddon, whether we are talking about supra 1,400% or some variation that is higher than 400% but lower than 1,400%.  The tool hopefully can help us to figure out how to deal with any of the variations on those scenarios without necessarily contribute to our panicking and/or not knowing what to do about such scenarios if they were to occur short of Armageddon.


We already argued about this previously.  Are you moving away from the earlier topic?

Earlier you stated that 300% to 400% would never occur, yet you seemed to amend to the possibility of 300%, but not 400%..

Ok. fair enough.. So are you saying that 400% will never occur prior to 2031, so then we can bet on it?  I hate to take your money, but it would be good to now how serious you are about your statements in regards to your thoughts that 400% will never happen, and then in the context of wanting to die with zero, you end up selling the remaining of whatever bitcoin that you have at 375%, and then at that point the BTC price might continue to go up to reach higher numbers.

Even in 2021, we had something in the ballpark of 470%, and that was thought to be a fairly whimpy top of the cycle.  Note the BTC spot/200-WMA gap in early on April 14, 2021 when BTC prices reached $64.4k-ish was higher than the BTC spot/200-WMA gap in late 2021 when the BTC price reached $69k.


Of course, people can use the tool however they want, yet if the BTC price reaches between 200% and 300% higher than the 200-WMA, and a person cashes out 5 months in advance, then where does that put him?  He either cannot cash out for 5 months or he just stays cashed out for those 5 months in advance by taking an additional month each month until the BTC price reaches the next threshold, which is the 300% to 400% range.

If such person is already in overaccumulation status, then hopefully whatever he is doing in regards to his sales is not knocking him out of overaccumulation status.

Yeah, sure it is up to each person to figure out when they have reached overaccumulation status, but you don't seem to be using the tool in that kind of a way, and I cannot stop you from doing it, even though I think that you are likely selling too much too soon if you are selling bitcoin to buy back more and you have not yet reached overaccumulation status and so sure maybe we could disagree about whether a person is in overaccumulation status yet or not, and so your interpretation of the tool might come to differing outcomes than I had expected for a guy to not fall below overaccumulation status, yet if you are using the tool prior to reaching overaccumulation status, then we are just coming to a different interpretation regarding how the tool should be used..  There is already attempts to explain these kinds of ideas, yet there can be interpretations that end up merely trying to use the tool to try to trade better...


We argued about these ideas previously, and I am not against the idea of dying with zero, even though I think that it is better to set up systems of sustainable withdrawal.. so those are philosopical differences, since I would not necessarily agree with the idea of depleting one's principle until perhaps later in life.. which surely could end up in a lot of cases of not dying with zero.


I understand that a certain level of trying beyond just saying.. you should buy bitcoin becomes repetitive if you might have already said it in the past and they aren't asking questions.

Part of the problem is that many of these guys from previous bitcoin discussions will bring it up again. Instead of saying, "how is that bitcoin thing doing?" they will say,. " I should have had listened to you the first time when you first said something."

Frequently, I will say that my advice or suggestion is the same - just get started, even if it is ONLY $100 per week.. whatever, it is better to get started and to have some bitcoin rather than not having any and continuing to presume that it is too late.  

They will say something like.. "yeah, yeah, yeah... This is not a good time."  As if they have any fucking clue about when might be a good time, and that ultimately they do not want to take action to get started, since they also might have spend more time studying and looking into bitcoin, and they continue to be scared about it, and no one wants to buy something that continues to go down and does not come back up merely because they bought at the top without realizing that they were buying at the top.. so without really knowing anything, they continue to believe that the BTC price looks toppie, which is true.. Bitcoin is likely going to always look toppie, all the way to $1 million and then to $10 million and beyond, it is going to continue to look toppie... but the only way to actually prepare for UP is to buy some rather than staying on zero and refusing to get off zero.

I am in a similar place at the moment. Reaching for the FY lever, but still holding back because reasons. Don't we all have reasons? It's never as simple as it looks. Apart from life pressures, eating ramen for so many years left me with deeply ingrained behavioral patterns. It takes a while - time and will - to adapt into YOLOing a dinner for two that costs about 0.3 months of pay.

The book you recommend might be a useful read. Thanks for your suggestion.

isn't that already the reality? and it's actually only getting worse as time goes on.

looking back, one of the best things i did was delete my binance account when KYC became mandatory a few years ago.
thanks to that, i forced myself to completely disconnect from all that KYC/AML bullshit and learn where and how to exchange my coins more privately and securely.

that's true, but i think he was referring to the swaps @examplens did on splash.tf (assuming they keep zero logs).

Are you usually playing with smaller or bigger money bets?
Better have some money ready in your account, because dewez is working on big website update and new games.
He has a secret plan to get us addicted on l0tt0 with interesting new games. 

In few years that is probably going to be the reality of using most centralized exchange with bitcoin 
Even if you verify your account and complete KYC procedure they can always freeze your coins and account.

It's not exactly broken, connection stays on exchange you used that can always get leaked, and maybe even on-chain if you used some cross-chain exchanges.

Maybe you are not analyzing the twitter post with any depth, yet are you aligning with those kinds of thoughts that the bull market and/or blow off top is not quite here yet?

During these kinds of correction periods there can be questions regarding both how long will this correction last and also whether the bullrun is over, and surely many folks would like to frontrun identifying when the bullmarket is over, yet it seems that those kinds of guys are tending to sell too much too soon, and even if they have any bitcoin left when the top arrives, they might not necessarily have enough to sell by that point if they had already sold several times on the way up.

For example a guy who had been holding since $50k or so might feel better to sell most if not all of his BTC at around $150k, even if the BTC price ends up going up into the $190k territory because he may well might feel that he caught the top close enough.. even if he does not have any coins (or hardly any that he would be willing to sell) by the time the BTC price reaches $190k-ish.


That is what makes the 200-WMA such a great indicator.. since it is quite commonly used, but at the same time the BTC price has historically spent around 75% of the time or more at least 30% or greater above it. 

So when we are close to it or even below it (which we were for most of the period between June 2022 until October 2023), those were surely trying times, but also retrospectively (and perhaps prospectively) they ended being quite great times for really going to town in our buying of bitcoin, even though it can also be painful to be ongoingly, persistently and perhaps even aggressively buying bitcoin during such seemingly negative bitcoin price times.

A sad thing was that we could have had been screaming our heads off for guys to buy during that period, and they don't listen.

I had mentioned this before, but it is worth repeating.  I have a relative who I had been bringing up bitcoin to him from time to time since 2014-ish.. and even on a few occasions I had gotten quite vociferous about how great bitcoin is - even paid him in bitcoin a few times.. but he just could not hold through tougher times, and I am pretty sure that it was right around July-ish of 2022 that i mentioned to him that it could well be such a great time to buy bitcoin right now since the price has been around $20k and even below $20k, and he specifically said that it could be the top.  I responded that "yes, it could be," yet both of us knew that I was not backing away from my statement and both of us knew that I was not going to attempt to go hardball in any kind of sales pitch.  I made my statement, and he made his statement, and sure he was correct for right around 6-ish months since the BTC price did not really go into any kind of meaningful recovery until January 2023. and furthermore the BTC price even dropped further on the FTX fiasco in November/December 2022... so he was largely correct that $19k/$20k was not exactly a bottom.. but really, he was ONLY right for a half of a year or so, and that half of a year or even year and a half (around that time) would have had been great for relatively well people (no coiners or low coiners) to really have had gone to town with their bitcoin accumulation based on my having had been telling them for around 8-ish years prior to that conversation.

I sometimes like to think of a fairly well-off guy like that, and he is probably already a millionaire in regards to his various assets that he owns (which doesn't take much these days), yet his quasi-liquid networth and his quasi-liquid assets might ONLY add up to being around $800k or so. I am not exactly sure, but he has always had a pretty decent income and he has some family assets too.

So if a guy like that might have had decided some kind of an aggressive investment into bitcoin in early 2022 based on the early 2022 price corrections, maybe he might have had started to get into bitcoin around February 2022 when bitcoin prices were in the upper $30ks.. and he just decided that fuck it, he was going to take something like $200k from his various assets and dollar cost average into bitcoin over the next 2-ish years and then see where it takes him and perhaps at that point to stop investing into bitcoin, yet taking 2 years to establish his stake of putting $200k into bitcoin. 

So how would have $200k-ish invested over 2 years starting February 2022 worked out?

Investing $2k per week between February 1, 2022 until February 1, 2024 would have resulted in $210k invested, and about 8 BTC.  Surely not a bad place to be, if he had wanted to just stop investing in bitcoin at that time and then just let his bitcoin investment ride for a few years after creating his initial stake.. perhaps a cycle or two before maybe considering whether to tap into the coins or to do anything else, but at least he had put a decent stake into bitcoin and it was what he was willing to do, but also perhaps that he continued to keep his other investments going too.

Right now 8 BTC would have a current spot price value of $882k, and a 200-WMA value of $415k (which would only generate around a $41.5k per year income).  Even though he may well be able to be happy with an $80k per year income, he would like the combination of all of his assets to be able to support a $160k per year income. and maybe just having his bitcoin at that level might be a good target, too..

He can look at my most recent fuck you status chart and see that 8 BTC would likely start to be able to support a perpetual withdrawal rate of $160k per year starting in about 2029 ... which may well be a reasonable target for him to get to fuck you status.. 4-ish years from now.. especially if he combines his bitcoin with his other investments and/or income sources.

Another thing that this guy could have had done in early 2024 is to continue to invest into bitcoin at a lower rate until he gets closer to his goals, but if he largely considers himself to have enough in bitcoin, then he might want to either buttress other investments or just to let his bitcoin and other investments ride at that time and to use his money in other ways... which surely there are always various demands on how a  guy might use his money.  Maybe this guy already had an income that was well over $100k per year an that he had been largely been able to take $1k per week from his regular income and he had some other places that he was getting the other $1k per week, but after two years of putting $2k per week into bitcoin, he had enough, and he felt that he had largely frontloaded his bitcoin investment.


You are right.  It is probably a best practice to try to stay focused on bitcoin rather than experimenting (or gambling with various shitcoins), and sure if a guy might be getting paid within his signature campaign for some coin that is supposed to mostly be pegged to the dollar, then he can largely consider that money in terms of holding in the dollar and perhaps figuring out reasonable times that he might ongoingly convert into bitcoin whether weekly or some other basis.. to the extent that he is largely still accumulating bitcoin.

I only was participating in a signature campaign for a couple of years, and I found it to be too much of a burden, even though surely through the years I could have had stacked a decent amount of bitcoin (especially being a legendary member)... but still just seems like a hassle to me, which largely relates to my sense that I don't really need any more bitcoin.... but sure, of course, we might assume that a lot of guys are still accumulating bitcoin and signature campaigns are generally decent ways to accumulate bitcoin.. but then at the same time, if they are paying in some dollar-pegged coin, there still may be questions about the extent to which to keep any of that in dollars or to pretty much convert most of it, if not all of it, to bitcoin in a relatively expedited way.

I did a quickie search for Stake in the signature campaign thread, but I could not see what they pay, but if they were to pay something like $100 per week in USDC, then surely every week that could be converted into bitcoin, or otherwise, maybe a portion of it, such as $80 converted into bitcoin and then the other $20 per week allocated towaards buying on dips or some other method that would not necessarily involve buying right away.

Também. Nada como ser funcionário público ou de estatal. A repartição é um lugar bem tóxico. É sempre um querendo puxar o tapete do outro.

O que vale a pena são os benefícios.

Por isso sempre tem milhares de candidatos nos concursos públicos.

Não sei se fui só eu. Todos ajudamos. Até porque sem posts ou topicos não consigo fazer muito mais.

Mesmo assim acho que posso melhorar. Dar um pouco mais de cada vez. Mas, mais posts de qualidade vão ajudar. 

That is a pretty old chart/table - with the newest of the data therein being May 17, 2021


From my perspective, your relatively more bearish proposition is bettable.

1st never is a long time, so if we were to bet, we could put a deadline on it, let's say the end  of 2030 - which would potentially capture the top of this cycle and the top of the next cycle, to the extent that framing these matters in terms of cycles is making any sense.

Sure, you could be correct, yet the reason I consider it bettable is because I am fairly confident to consider that the odds to be less than 50% that you are correct, and you are seeming to put a pretty great assertion on your side (never).. like you should be giving me odds, but that wouldn't be fair for me to take advantage of your likely wrong perspective, like that.  hahahahahahahaha

If you are correct then it seems that some of the underlying presumptions of our tool (I know I created the substantive categories) would be so off in terms of their never, ever, ever happening... .. and with the tool I was attempting to outline actionable presumptions that were in categories that could end up happening. .not that they would happen, but if they did, then any of us, using the tool, could have a plan for dealing with such categories of BTC spot price ranges relative to the 200-WMA.

So yeah the category of actionable ranges are taken from fairly recent historical data with the maximum on the downside being BTC prices up to 35% below the 200-WMA (which was close to happening on November 22, 2022), and on the upside of the BTC spot price getting to 1,400% above the 200-WMA, which happened on December 17, 2017.

Directionally, you have to be correct that the extremes are likely to get taken out, especially some of the outrageousness in the upside, yet I am not sure if we can bank upon the disappearance of overexuberance, even when a variety of tools exist to bet against bitcoin  and even with the rules of large numbers.    

Of course, so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has ONLY gone up, yet that is not guaranteed to continue to take place, so there likely is going to end up being a period of time in which the 200-WMA starts to go down in such a way that it is noticeable over an extended period of time, like maybe a month or 2... Yet, I don't know when that kind of downward trend of the 200-WMA might play out, even though I doubt that such a downward trend would be the death of bitcoin, even though it would represent a fairly lengthy period of BTC price below the 200-WMA... and even BTC spot prices having had spent a decently large amount of time below the 200-WMA between June 2022 and October 2023, the annualize upward movement of the 200-WMA still continued to be greater than 19% during that time. I was watching the daily reports of the 200-WMA at the worst of those late 2022 into early 2022 times, and even on the worst days the 200-WMA still was going up around at least $8 to $9 per day (200-WMA at the time around $24k)... so positive on the daily and positive at least 12% on an annualized basis.. even if we take the very worst days of only going up $8 per day, then $8 X 365 gets us $2,920 annualized, which would be 12.17% if we were to divide that by $24k.  

In some sense, extended downward scenarios for the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA seem more likely and sustainable as compared to extended upside scenarios, such as if we were to try to get to 1,400% again.  Yet even 300% to 400% from today's 200-WMA would merely be prices of $155k to $207k, which surely seem within reach even if yeah the 200-WMA is currently going up right around $40 per day, so it is not like we would shoot up to get within that range in a day or two, it might take a few days or even a few weeks.

The lower number of 300% is surely bettable, yet I also don't see any reason to remove 1,400% from the tool, even though you might want to consider that the tool should be more granular and therefore more realistic in terms of numbers that you believe can get hit, such as less than 300%.. hahahahaha..  There is hardly any interesting action needing to be contemplated based on price if we might be considering ONLY such low levels of exuberance in bitcoin's price future.  Sure the tool can still be helpful in terms of just attempting to figure out ways to value our portfolios and then to potentially draw upon our holdings based on such valuations of our BTC holdings.

Yet, from your seeming perspective of upside scenarios no longer being in the cards, pour one out for bitcoin.


By the way, I get the sense that guys who are overly conservative in their abilities to see bitcoin upside scenarios are likely going to be lured into either not accumulating enough bitcoin (since they take for granted our current prices) and/or selling too many bitcoin too soon, since they perceive the top being in too early. So, yeah, a lot of normies have made such mistakes in bitcoin historically in terms of their failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately accumulate bitcoin and/or their inclinations to sell way too many bitcoin too soon.

Part of the reason for the tool is to help normies to be able to prepare for upside scenarios that may or may not happen so that they are perhaps more able to regulate their own level of selling bitcoin, to the extent that they are more inclined to sell rather than to hold  I sometimes hear or read from other bitcoiners who seem to be way smarter than me, and they are claiming to be bitcoin maxis, yet at the same time, they are trading the fuck out of their bitcoin, and surely I have difficulties understanding how they ever get ahead in their ongoing deploying of those kinds of systems, and it seems that an overwhelming majority of them would have had been way better off to have had been emphasizing on accumulating and holding rather than fucking around with trading... especially if we might look at their performance over a couple of cycles or longer.

I think that we are going to continue to have similar patterns into the future where guys are trying to trade bitcoin, selling too much bitcoin too soon and also failing/refusing to accumulate bitcoin when they should be.  

At the same time, it is my perspective that if guys get to an place of overaccumulation, then they have options and they can establish a perpetual budget, and even work within such budget to either continue to build or just to live off of the budget it they do not necessarily need to work off the budget.   I suppose that my presumption of a perpetual budget does have some built in assumptions about the 200-WMA continuing to go up at at least the rate of withdrawal (slightly greater in order to be perpetual and also at least enough to give reasonable cost of living increases each year, for example 7%.. yet each of us is still responsible for figuring out the extent to which we have reached over accumulation status and are able to withdraw at a sustainable rate and if the BTC price / 200WMA is not going up enough in order to sustain our withdrawal rate then we either have to lower our withdrawal rate or figure out ways to build up our bitcoin stash size in order to get it at a sustainable level within our intended budget..

This is really very gratifying.
I'm shocked to see such a record as a Nigerian. From the first post per local update of Rikafip, I saw that we Nigerians posted the most with 3430.
This is really a matter of great gratification and pride for us. Our Nigeria has created a perfect position in the forum. It will impress the forum members even more in the future.

We would all remember Runes and other participants of the chain like it in no time.. Gladly, that's not the case.

Das schlechte Gewissen brauchst du auch nicht haben

Nachdem es aber durchaus etwas verwirrend ist wenn man sich mit dem Bitcointalk Giveaway-Manager noch nicht auseinandergesetzt hat hier kurz die Erklärung:


Man nimmt also die letzten 6 Nummern des ermittelten Hashes und errechnet daraus die Gewinnzahl die dann bestimmt, wer den Preis bekommt.

Hier auch noch der ANN des Tools falls jemand mehr darüber lesen möchte: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5436655.new#new

Der Blockhash ist doch nur ein Teil des ganzen. In den Spielregeln steht doch, dass hier letztendlich der Bitcointalk Giveaway Manager von Bitmover zum Einsatz kommt.
Also macht mir bitte kein schlechtes Gewissen

@willi9974 habe Dir eben eine PN geschickt, alles weitere dort.

In the olden days almost all of the signature campaigns paid in bitcoin, and it seems that these days it might be mixed, yet I suppose whether we are earning in bitcoin or converting our signature campaign into bitcoin, it can surely start to add up, and i will agree that there could be some dynamics that are different if getting paid in bitcoin versus getting paid in dollars (or some other dollar equivalent), yet the calculation is still about how much discretionary income a person has so that he is able to afford to fold all of his signature campaign funds into bitcoin because all of that is extra money that goes beyond his monthly expenses.

Surely I have frequently proclaimed that anyone who is either in their bitcoin accumulation phase or perhaps fairly early to bitcoin then they are likely better off to be buying every week so then they likely would catch dips, and sometimes they can play around and try to catch more dip by manually making their BTC buys.. yet of course, trying to time the dip within the week runs the risk of the BTC price going up rather than down, and so frequently it can be difficult to guestimate what is more or less a good price - even though you might be able to see various ups and downs in the previous weeks and conclude what is generally a decent price relatively speaking (without necessarily shooting for perfection, but instead shooting for.. o.k... here it is.. this is good enough.. so for example, if the price had been steady in the $116k price range for several days, then you might just set your buy order for within about 20% of the lower end of the price range, and so this week, you might be upset if you made your buy for $116k and then the BTC price shoots down to $109k... but if the beginning of your buying week is Monday, then maybe you wait until Wednesday to buy,.. but if you had not executed your buy by the time Saturday or Sunday comes, then you are going to have to buy at whatever price since your new week is going to come up on Monday again.. and of course, you can set the beginning of the week at any day that you believe is logical for you (perhaps the day that you receive your pay?).


That is the thing.

We can never be sure if the bull run is over.

It would be really hard to believe if we were not to get to something in the ballpark of $180k or more in this cycle.. but we can never really know for sure.

The spot price has been spending a lot of time in that area of like 100% to 150% above the 200-WMA.  Surely nothing too exciting in terms of exuberance... or even overexuberance. 

It would be nice to get into the greater than 300% to 400% range..meaning that spot price is 300% to 400% or greater higher than the 200-WMA, even if many of us would not even consider that to be very frothy, either.


I wonder if bitmover might have had been selling too much of his BTC to get into the millionnaire clubs.... since presumptively we would need to be a millionaire to be able to enter.

Another thing is that i personally would not consider BTC spot price to be solid enough in regards to proclaiming millionaire status.  It is too much all over the place, and how could any true bitcoiner believe that he is going to cash out BTC in order to be at millionaire status.. It is better to keep our wealth in bitcoin rather than selling some or all of our BTC merely for getting to millionaire status in terms of BTC's spot prices.

9-ish bitcoin's right now for entry level spot price millionaire status, yet when we hit $124.5k, only 8 BTC were needed.

The income from millionaire status is likely more important, including that $2 million is the new million... which is an $80k per year income that comes from $2 millionaire status rather than a $40k per year income that would come from single millionaire status.

Cara, falando sobre o tempo... vocÊs sabem que essa percepção é sinal de que as coisas estão fora do controle que você deveria ter né!

Pra ele estar passando muito rápido, de duas uma pelo menos:
1. Você tá trabalhando demais, não tem tempo pra quase nada fora dele e deixa de aproveitar a vida, curtir a família ou com os amigos;
2. Você é alguém que vive com a grana curta, torcendo pra chegar o final do mês o dia do vale, o fim do ano pra receber o décimo terceiro, e quando vê o ciclo recomeçou e você não conquistou nada além de alguns anos a menos na sua vida nesse plano terrestre;
Cuidado ein!

Sobre a  activity menor que a exigência de merits, realmente é algo raro.... eu vi isso já acontecer, não me lembro agora com quem é que era... mas de fato demonstra que a pessoa é merecedora de um upgrade, só não tem "idade" ainda pra isso

No sir it's a small dip before a long jump because in September we are going to have new ATH.

Which could be give good increase into your funds for entering into a million air clubs just matter of time.

Congratulations mate, you always get lucky with some of your bets! I hope you may win even more in future!

Pensei nisso sobre o tópico, talvez para animar o pessoal novato, mas não sei se eu teria essa habilidade, pois escrever de si mesmo geralmente é bem estranho digamos assim  ... mas vou bolar alguma coisa para os próximos dias


Realmente voa, e a gente nem percebe praticamente.. estamos rumo ao final do ano, parece que o ano começou agora! que louco isso... quando vejo já é fim de semana, daqui a pouco natal, etc etc

Eu fiz umas continhas, após conseguir os merits que faltam, girando a roleta das atividaes caso eu tenha sorte consigo em 8 semanas, caso eu tenha azar, 44 semanas... a roleta das atividades é o que pega... sei que não vai mudar muita coisa a respeito de campanhas ou participação, mas imagino ser bem legal acordar num dia e ver seu rank atualizado...

Pode fazer... Pode fazer a mando do Estado, e pode fazer de forma indireta para proveito próprio.
A diferença pode estar nos objetivos.

Enfim, apenas acho que essa ideia de uma empresa ter muita info nossa é melhor que o Estado, um pouco exagerada. Ambos os casos são maus, porque em momentos críticos esses todos pontos se juntam e agem em conjunto para proveito próprio.

Não é por nada, que hoje em dia umas das coisas mais valiosas é os nossos dados, sejam eles apenas métricos ou não.

The following users are disqualified:

Thread locked, results in 48 hours!

I think he is trying to make it fair for everyone including the house. and people dont like any resets if they are on the top before it happened.

That was a very good return, and you are playing one of my favorite games on l0tt0 that made me most profit.
I can see you are in third place now inleaderboard, but you had biggest return from all who are listed.

Time has come for yet another brief monthly overview, and this time a little bit earlier than usual as I am travelling tomorrow and won't be too active till Sunday. All charts and tables are made using Ddmrddmr Merit Dashboard and @TryNinja Ninjastic.space while images are uploaded via TalkImg.com - Image hosting for BitcoinTalk made by @joker_josue.

Communities marked with * (Pakistan, Bengali) don't have their own local boards yet, but I included them anyway, hoping that theymos will finally give them their own local boards.

---

Post activity per local board during July 2025

During July, 13735 posts were written across local boards which is a solid increase compared to June (12762). Nigerian board not only kept the first spot they took from Russian board, but even increased the difference reaching their all time high of 3430 posts, while all the other boards afe far behind top two.

Regarding the boards that had decreased activity, French sticks out as their post number dropped by 50%, making it all time low (at leasts since I am making these overviews).

---

Active members per local board during July 2025

During the above mentioned period, 1348 members frote at least 1 post in one of the local borads, which is a big increase compared to June (1191). Majorify of this increase goes to Nigerian and Russian local boards, but other big boards contributed to that as well.

Also, its worth mentioning that Nigerian board is coming dangerously close to Russians and might overtake them in this metric as well.

---

Local board members per amount of posts during July 2025

When it comes to the members who wrote only 1 post, Greek board is the leader with 71%, while in the same bracket Pakistan had only 11 % of such members.

In the 2-9 posts bracket, Bengali is at the top with 52% of such members, while Croatian local board had only 14% of members who wrote that amount of posts.

Regarding the 10+ posts bracket, Pakistan leads with 53% while at the same time French local; board had only 8% of such members.

---

Merit shared per local board during July 2025

During July 8367 merit was sent across local boards that are part of this overview, which is surprisngly lower than during June (8710), despite two most merited boards having increased amount of merit shared. This decrease happened simply bnecause German board went from 1603 merit shared in june to only 604 in July, casuing this dump.

---

Merit/Post ratio per local board during July 2025

During July, average merit per post ratio across local boards was 0.61 which is a drop compared to June (0.68). No surprise there since number of post went up while merit went down.

While in june 4 local boards had over 1 merit/post ratio, this time only Spanish local boartd managed to reach that.

---

Merit senders and receivers per local board during July 2025

During July 534 members sent while 641 rereived merit on one of the local boards which is surprisingly an increased compared to June (529 senders/613 reicevers). I say surprisngly since merit shared went down noticeable, but maybe the fact that majorioty of that decrease happened on 1 board didn't affect the total numbers.

---

Percentage of merited posts across local boards during July 2025

Once again Romanian local bpoard is at the top, but this time with a little bit more realistic 55% of merited posts (compared to June's 73%).

---

Merit per transaction across local boards during July 2025

And last in this series of charts, the one that shows meriting habits in local boards, which you can see differentiate quite a bit.

---

The most active members per local board during July 2025

And in the end, list of the most acrive members per local board. joker_josue from Portuguese local board is once again at the top with 168 posts, while two members from Russian board ( Julien_Olynpic with 158 and klarki with 155 posts) are 2nd and 3rd. GG guys!

Russian	|	German	|	Turkish	|	Italian	|	Portuguese	|	Spanish	|
_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|
1. Julien_Olynpic [158]	|	1. Lakai01 [118]	|	1. mandown [103]	|	1. Ale88 [80]	|	1. joker_josue [168]	|	1. famososMuertos [80]	|
2. klarki [155]	|	2. MaxMueller [105]	|	2. execijutiere [75]	|	2. xenomorfo [64]	|	2. bitmover [117]	|	2. darxiaomi [77]	|
3. jokers10 [124]	|	3. Soonandwaite [69]	|	3. Mustang Shelby [61]	|	3. giorgione [63]	|	3. sabotag3x [94]	|	3. Don Pedro Dinero [50]	|
4. zasad@ [100]	|	4. Koal-84 [60]	|	4. Wake Up [56]	|	4. babo [57]	|	4. TryNinja [89]	|	4. Hispo [37]	|
5. Numeral [93]	|	5. MinoRaiola [60]	|	5. ajanwalker [50]	|	5. verdinio [51]	|	5. alegotardo [78]	|	5. Porfirii [30]	|
6. xandry [91]	|	6. mole0815 [56]	|	6. blomen [49]	|	6. cande86 [50]	|	6. mikel_012 [46]	|	6. danadc [22]	|
7. safar1980 [76]	|	7. willi9974 [53]	|	7. Balmain [48]	|	7. fillippone [50]	|	7. Forsyth Jones [42]	|	7. MJWALK [12]	|
8. Alex077 [63]	|	8. Real-Duke [48]	|	8. Silence Scream [47]	|	8. *Ace* [49]	|	8. alexrossi [25]	|	8. MaksymMur [12]	|
9. Polkeins [59]	|	9. cygan [45]	|	9. W Jr. [47]	|	9. Plutosky [40]	|	9. l3pox [25]	|	9. Filicius [10]	|
10. Etranger [51]	|	10. Unknown01 [44]	|	10. Black Mbaye [44]	|	10. Lillominato89 [39]	|	10. criptoevangelista [24]	|	10. Pinkman737 [8]	|

Indonesian	|	French	|	Pilipinas	|	Croatian	|	Nigerian	|	Arabic	|
_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|
1. Chikito [50]	|	1. Danydee [11]	|	1. Peanutswar [45]	|	1. katanic97 [43]	|	1. Charles-Tim [98]	|	1. Kavelj22 [36]	|
2. mu_enrico [33]	|	2. G.Seed [10]	|	2. blockman [42]	|	2. ovcijisir [43]	|	2. Yablee0 [58]	|	2. khaled0111 [29]	|
3. Luzin [28]	|	3. Becassine [9]	|	3. gunhell16 [41]	|	3. Pmalek [37]	|	3. Tonimez [45]	|	3. yhiaali3 [28]	|
4. joniboini [26]	|	4. patrickus [9]	|	4. cryptoaddictchie [32]	|	4. slackovic [37]	|	4. WhoYouCantKill [45]	|	4. GxSTxV [16]	|
5. maydna [23]	|	5. MJWALK [8]	|	5. GreatArkansas [30]	|	5. Rikafip [29]	|	5. Africolo [40]	|	5. loveurself420 [16]	|
6. armanda90 [21]	|	6. LeGaulois [7]	|	6. Eternad [26]	|	6. dkbit98 [27]	|	6. Floxynice [39]	|	6. MJWALK [13]	|
7. punk.zink [19]	|	7. Jer0mFR [5]	|	7. happybitcoinph [26]	|	7. examplens [22]	|	7. Tungbulu [38]	|	7. albon [12]	|
8. reagansimms [19]	|	8. Deelan1 [4]	|	8. arwin100 [25]	|	8. Trofo [16]	|	8. JayJuanGee [34]	|	8. Sebastian Michaelis [5]	|
9. silpersurfer [17]	|	9. Halab [4]	|	9. bhadz [25]	|	9. btcltcdigger [13]	|	9. Mate2237 [34]	|	9. OmegaStarScream [4]	|
10. masulum [16]	|	10. GrosWesh [3]	|	10. Fredomago [24]	|	10. BitGoba [10]	|	10. Fiatless [32]	|	10. hugeblack [4]	|

Polish	|	Indian	|	Greek	|	Romanian	|	Pakistan*	|	Bengali*	|
_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|
1. cygan [15]	|	1. JSRAW [26]	|	1. condoras [19]	|	1. GazetaBitcoin [21]	|	1. qurbanshah02 [64]	|	1. Crypto Library [18]	|
2. pawel7777 [8]	|	2. Bitcoin Smith [20]	|	2. Ultegra134 [18]	|	2. MJWALK [5]	|	2. JunaidAzizi [40]	|	2. DYING_S0UL [17]	|
3. MJWALK [2]	|	3. pawanjain [18]	|	3. CHSUP [1]	|	3. NeuroticFish [4]	|	3. Cheema02 [28]	|	3. Mahiyammahi [17]	|
4. TryNinja [2]	|	4. IIrik11 [16]	|	4. Dimitris [1]	|	4. TryNinja [2]	|	4. ZAINmalik75 [28]	|	4. Bd officer [13]	|
5. stwenhao [2]	|	5. TheUltraElite [12]	|	5. MJWALK [1]	|	5. @Whale [1]	|	5. MusaPk [25]	|	5. Z_MBFM [10]	|
6. CHSUP [1]	|	6. LucyFurr [8]	|	6. alani123 [1]	|	6. CHSUP [1]	|	6. BTC FutureKing [22]	|	6. Nothingtodo [9]	|
7. EXMON [1]	|	7. libert19 [8]	|	7. changlee [1]	|	7. Trêvoid [1]	|	7. Zaka1221 [21]	|	7. Review Master [7]	|
8. GazetaBitcoin [1]	|	8. avikz [6]	|		|	8. killat [1]	|	8. GbitG [20]	|	8. LDL [6]	|
9. TooBit.com [1]	|	9. GrennEC [5]	|		|		|	9. UmerIdrees [19]	|	9. Shishir99 [6]	|
10. Trêvoid [1]	|	10. mardo89 [4]	|		|		|	10. CryptoYar [18]	|	10. Wonder Work [5]	|

Wow, this is very good, thank you for sharing the links. I found a few more links and I am sharing them, if you can add them, please add them.


Someone named Rich222 had arranged and posted them, from there I got them and tried to present them here. These links are very important, if any of them can be added here, it will be even better.

Something similar already exists and was made by your fellow countryman, @bitmover from Brazil. Primarily intended for Bitcointalk members and raffles on this forum. Check here: https://bitcoindata.science/giveaway-manager/
Many people use this tool, although for free raffles, it has proven to be fair so far. For example: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5556245.0

Pois é, mas quem somos nós, não?

Somente 213 milhões de pequenos tiranos soberanos?

Time to update FeeBuddy to display fractional fee rates? @bitmover

Não tem sentido algum termos um Supremo tão ativista politicamente, aquele que, em tese, deveria defender a CF, ataca a tudo e a todos que julga contrários.

Me temo que algunos de nosotros llegamos tarde a esta última oportunidad. Una lástima, estaba bonita la tarjeta con el holograma; estaremos más atentos la próxima vez.

Enhorabuena a Real-Duke por la victoria

Bitcoin Power Law Based Loan Simulator

https://bitcoinpowerlawbasedsimulator.cloudns.pro

A tool I created to pass the time with various LLMs
I used Gemini, ChatGPT, Cloude, and Grok a little.

As a premise regarding the future price of Bitcoin, let's assume the Power Law is valid.

Power law:
https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/the-bitcoin-power-law-theory-962dfaf99ee9
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/power-law

For example, as I write this on AAVE, using BTC as collateral, liquidation occurs at an LTV of 78%.

So, assuming you want to spend $10,000 per year (value used in the example), set the LTV to 78% and click on “Calculate Safe BTC.”
It will tell you how many Bitcoins you need to survive from today until 2085.

It also calculates the inflation you set, i.e., calculating the increase in the loan to maintain the corresponding purchasing power in subsequent years.

It also calculates the interest to be paid on the loan, which can therefore affect early liquidation.

This scheme would also allow you to pay zero taxes, because you would never be selling any Bitcoin.
However, you need a good accountant to guide you in this line.

Of course, none of this is certain, Bitcoin could fail tomorrow, on its own, due to a meteor strike, or AI taking control of humanity, etc.
Or the lending service could fail, take your money, be stolen...

Let me know if this is clear enough, or if you find any bugs

I took inspiration from these:
https://bitcoinretirement.net/
https://bitcoinborrowdie.com/
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

For sure with bitcoin investing, I am suggesting 4-10 years or longer, so measuring over short periods you might have some of those short periods where your trading had played out better than investing, yet it still is not likely to outperform bitcoin investing that just involves ongoing buying, weekly or whenever you get your income to mostly be erroring on the side of accumulating and building up your stash.  

There could be times where you hold back some of your weekly buys for buying dips, since you might consider the BTC prices to be too frothy, and sure it could b possible that soe of those kinds of tailored buys end up getting you more BTC for the same quantity of dollars.. and yeah, you might even have large proportion of your trades that are profitable, yet if you are trading, inevitably you likely end up selling too much too soon and the BTC price keeps going up, even after you seld several times expecting to buy back and maybe you even do not buy back in ways that make substantial profits, so you also might end up not buying as much as you would if you were more focused on ongoing buying.

I have no clue about your actual budget to be able to try to show you with numbers, so you just have to work out those calculations yourself, including what I had mentioned about holding back from some of your budget in order to get the money that you need or want to spend rather than buying too much bitcoin with money that you want to use for your expenses and then selling them when the pump is sufficient enough for you to feel that you got enough profits from such trades.

Sometimes it can be difficult to measure the difference since you might have been in and out and in several times, and then you might not be keeping very close track of how much you put in and how much you took out for spending versus rolling that money back into your trades.


I am not sure if I buy your way of framing these matters.

Even highly convicted people either run out of money and the have to buy by either scrambling  to go through other resources, or they just wait for more income to come in or they just HODL through the low price periods.  I think that many of them largely ran out of money by the time the sub $28k prices start to come..   Many were expecting $100k and then we are stuck at $28k that came initially from the Tera Luna blow up, yet contagion kept blowing up.

Yeah, sure there are still some guys with money left, but they are also afraid and not wanting to buy when they are not sure that the falling knife is done falling, and the BTC price was not even supposed to hit the 200-WMA - which was then at $22k, but it hit $22k and kept going down.  It took a couple of months for the momentum to reverse, even once it got below $22k.. it just stayed below $22k - for several months.. largely starting in June 2022.. and then getting even worse in November 2022 when FTX revealed that it did not have hardly any BTC.  

Almost every crash is like that, and yeah, sure there are some folks holding both BTC and dollars, but if they are convicted in BTC, they had largely already bought back when the prices were in the upper $30ks, prior to the Tera Luna news drop.. and .. yeah, there had been a similar drop in mid-2021.. the first rise to $64k-ish and then a drop to around $28k-ish, and that one held and so then  the second testing of $69k was supposed to bring us to $100k.. and sure maybe not $100k but also not ONLY to $69k.. so there were quite a few expectations that they run was not over yet.. and perhaps folks were not really convinced that it was over until the Tera Luna news.. .. but yeah sure there were a few, such as LFC (shout out), who sold in the $50ks on the way down the second time, but even he ONLY sold 25% based on a certai lacking of confidence in regards to his own making a mistake with selling too much of us stash if the BTC price had resumed up rather than actually correcting yet even he probably did a vast majority of his buying back before the price even touched on $22k, even though he may well held some back for further buys based on how crazy the drop ended up being and based on cascading exchange (3rd party custodian) failings, who had been gambling with BTC that were supposed to be custodied for clients.. but clients were also wanting yield.. and yeah whatever a bunch of messed up situations in which there were not enough BTC to go around.



I suppose that you have to have that kind of thinking about downside scenarios if you are going to trade.

I would be willing to bet that BTC prices are never going below $75k again, even though right now the 200-WMA is at $51,760 and during a bull market the BTC price does not tend to get within 25% of the 200-WMA, and during a bear market the 200-WMA can be breached and even gone below for quite a while, so surely it is possible that the 200-WMA might not move up fast enough to cause sub $75k to be out of the question... yet I still would be willing to bet, for funzies.

Regarding other trading scenarios, sure it is likely that you could be correct 80% of the time or greater, and still end up in a worse position due to your trading...

And, you might even be very good at various calls... . which remains a big so what for me  in terms of my ongoing thought that you (and others similarly situated) are likely way better off to not be playing roulette with the best asset known to mankind.. even though sure, you can do what you like.

By the way, I do fuck around calling various prices that I think will or will not happen, yet my system does not change very much (except slightly on the margins) based on what I think that BTC price may or may not do.. If it is going up I am making relatively small sells.. less than 3% for every doubling of the price, and if it drops I am using the money that I had generated in the sales to buy back.  Yeah, I might mess around with whether the sells are larger than the buys or the buys are larger than the sells or I might mess around with the spreads and/or the increments, but overall they are non-emotional and non-predictive.. .either the buy/sell orders get filled or they don't... and yeah if we are sitting in the same price range for 6-12  months and I get antsie about wanting to make some kind of a purchase, but I don't have enugh cash, I will just shave off whatever I need, whether the price was $55k in late 2024 or whether it is $115k right now or if it happens to be $185k in 9 months from now.


The odds for sub $100k are way greater than the odds for sub $75k.. so the level of unrealism in regards to prices that guys are expecting to buy can be really unrealistic and even if they are realistic, they still might not end up happening, then the guy had either sold too much too soon or he failed to buy enough... so he is spending a lot of time waiting rather than buying bitcoin and getting his holdings to a place that he can get ahead of the ratt race and stop fucking around trying to guess the direction of the price.
 


I already know that.  You already told me that you were only selling with the trading portion.  So you largely did not answer my question and you perhaps even evaded it.

My question was in regards to your trading stash.  How much bitcoin you till going to have in your trading stash if the BTC price goes to $300k?

If you have less than 50% of the 50%, then that means you sold more than 25% of your stash. I am imagining that you are not going to have any left to sell if the BTC price goes to $300k... because you would have sold most of them and perhaps even all of them on the way up to $200k, so largely between $200k and $300k you don't got jack shit in your trading stash, and you are largely telling yourself, at least I have my investment stash... And, sure, it is better than nothing to still have 50% of your stash rather than having had sold it, and like I said with me.. I have my own faults, I will probably have something close to 97% of my stash when we get to $500k.. even thoug surely I know that I have already preauthorized myself to be able to sell 10% for every doubling, but I have not employed that option ever, even though I was probably quite a bit closer in 2015/2016 when I started, but even then, I had issues in regards to my ongoing reluctance to sell too much cornz too soon.
 

 You are referring to your investment stash.

That is a lot to sell, since you already have been being whimpy in buying (meaning the portion that you have been putting into your investment versus trading it).

But, yeah, if you have already worked out your math, then you are likely in a much better position than folks who still are not even buying bitcoin...or those who are trading more than you or even buying more whimpy than you.  I know that you don't consider yourself to be whimpy, and that is fine.  Whimpy is a relative term.


I hate to argue about the past, but you can change your ways at any time and start focusing on investing into bitcoin rather than fucking around trading.. (or at least cutting down your trading amount to less than 10% the size of your bitcoin holdings so that you can still gamble and have fun, since that seems to be what you want to do).  In other words, there is no need to be fucking around with inferior practices, such as trading.

Even for yourself, a fairly conservative investment into bitcoin of [urlhttps://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2016-08-05&finish_date=2025-04-11&regular_investment=100&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=2]$100 per week for the past 8-ish years since your forum registration date until present would have resulted in right around less than $47.4k invested and about 8.82 BTC.[/url]

Currently that 8.82 BTC would be a bit more than $1 million spot price value and more importantly a $456,519 200-WMA valuation.. which would mean a withdrawal rate of about $45.6k per year or $3,800 per month into perpetuity... and yeah you could keep adding to that stash or you could just let time pass, and [urlhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg65653923#msg65653923]by about late 2026, that 8.82-ish BTC would be enough to support an income of $80k per year in perpetuity[/url].  

Of course, you can do whatever you like, yet with bitcoin, I don't see why there are needs for any of us to be cashing out large chunks of our BTC at a time, sine we can largely just figure out a way to withdraw from it in perpetuity at a sustainable rate and at an amount that is comfortable to us.. once we get our BTC to that size...

And, yeah if you have not been stacking enough BTC, it is largely due to your fucking around with trading and interferring with your own abilities to empower yourself because you are using inferior techniques.


Waiting for lower dips is just waiting for something that might not happen, as compared to just regularly buying...

and, second, I am not sure about your second point about going 100% into investing?  You could go from 50% t0 90% and still play around with 10%.. but yeah, I hardly recommend trading as a way to get to overaccumulation status.  Once you get to over accumulation status, then you likely increase your options.

Update:
DT 1
     1. 35: theymos (Trust: +29 / =1 / -1) (DT1! (51) 13468 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. 203: HostFat (Trust: +1 / =0 / -1) (DT1! (0) 257 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. 11425: gmaxwell (Trust: +13 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (13) 8533 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. 30747: Vod (Trust: +28 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (10) 2294 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. 33156: vapourminer (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 3946 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. 55384: Foxpup (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (14) 2623 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. 64507: philipma1957 (Trust: +25 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (18) 9337 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. 65636: babo (Trust: +10 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (5) 4067 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. 78147: Cyrus (Trust: +25 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (18) 2384 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. 84521: Welsh (Trust: +3 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (17) 3165 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. 84866: ibminer (Trust: +12 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (8) 2433 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. 85033: d5000 (Trust:  neutral) (DT1! (4) 8216 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. 97582: joker_josue (Trust: +6 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (4) 5620 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    14. 112493: Pmalek (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (2) 7866 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    15. 120837: vizique (Trust: +40 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 645 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    16. 123824: albon (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 1546 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    17. 131333: wwzsocki (Trust: +15 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (3) 1516 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    18. 140584: EFS (Trust: +8 / =1 / -1) (DT1! (8) 1743 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    19. 158444: hybridsole (Trust: +19 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 303 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    20. 164749: stompix (Trust:  neutral) (DT1! (8) 6276 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    21. 164822: hilariousandco (Trust: +28 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (30) 1806 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    22. 204821: Buchi-88 (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 2078 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    23. 216582: willi9974 (Trust: +52 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 2508 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    24. 290195: achow101 (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (8) 6229 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    25. 300014: DaveF (Trust: +33 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (17) 6379 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    26. 314792: examplens (Trust: +9 / =5 / -0) (DT1! (24) 3023 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    27. 317618: nutildah (Trust: +19 / =3 / -0) (DT1! (28) 8878 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    28. 346731: minerjones (Trust: +142 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (17) 3079 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    29. 352429: BitcoinPenny (Trust: #  +52 / =3 / -5) (DT1! (2) 1288 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    30. 355846: yahoo62278 (Trust: +39 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (24) 3853 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    31. 364070: bitbollo (Trust: +15 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 3309 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    32. 379147: pooya87 (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 10850 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    33. 379487: LFC_Bitcoin (Trust: +29 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (15) 10769 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    34. 395806: o_solo_miner (Trust: +8 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 519 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    35. 400366: sandy-is-fine (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 234 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    36. 405464: mocacinno (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 4427 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    37. 405482: Real-Duke (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 2100 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    38. 407174: klarki (Trust: +5 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (2) 3823 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    39. 459836: LoyceV (Trust: +32 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (59) 18552 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    40. 487418: The Sceptical Chymist (Trust: +33 / =3 / -0) (DT1! (28) 6133 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    41. 507856: LeGaulois (Trust: +4 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (3) 3618 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    42. 521899: SFR10 (Trust: +17 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 2770 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    43. 740502: condoras (Trust: +14 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 665 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    44. 754818: holydarkness (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (16) 1295 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    45. 805820: Lafu (Trust: +17 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (15) 3699 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    46. 811213: polymerbit (Trust: +17 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 958 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    47. 830967: tweetious (Trust: +36 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 437 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    48. 889300: giammangiato (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 1432 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    49. 901859: buwaytress (Trust: +29 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 3440 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    50. 914465: crwth (Trust: +3 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1075 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    51. 932931: Ale88 (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 3128 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    52. 995810: hosemary (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 6111 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    53. 1000199: krogothmanhattan (Trust: +100 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (17) 3839 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    54. 1016855: JollyGood (Trust: +21 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (16) 1702 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    55. 1045971: igebotz (Trust: +17 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (10) 2029 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    56. 1051955: roycilik (Trust: +12 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1906 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    57. 1059082: hugeblack (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 4144 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    58. 1067333: El duderino_ (Trust: +25 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (8) 14458 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    59. 1097370: KTChampions (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 2010 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    60. 1099980: Trofo (Trust: +27 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (11) 2915 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    61. 1137579: icopress (Trust: +75 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (34) 10936 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    62. 1179651: sheenshane (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (2) 1164 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    63. 1190631: JeromeTash (Trust: +4 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1233 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    64. 1247226: logfiles (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (9) 2078 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    65. 1269497: Bitcoin_Arena (Trust: +1 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (6) 1893 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    66. 1285797: GazetaBitcoin (Trust: +13 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (20) 8713 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    67. 1289002: Maus0728 (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (0) 1572 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    68. 1311641: tvplus006 (Trust: +13 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (16) 2285 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    69. 1339716: coinlocket$ (Trust: +9 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (12) 1511 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    70. 1424178: mole0815 (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (9) 2934 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    71. 1554927: bitmover (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 6822 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    72. 1668017: anonymousminer (Trust: +40 / =0 / -1) (DT1! (7) 1309 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    73. 1724800: Lakai01 (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 3486 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    74. 1827294: Husna QA (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 3125 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    75. 1852120: fillippone (Trust: +14 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (21) 18825 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    76. 1894120: madnessteat (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 2630 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    77. 1980983: The Cryptovator (Trust: +19 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (21) 2361 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    78. 1982152: lovesmayfamilis (Trust: +26 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (28) 4877 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    79. 2003859: DireWolfM14 (Trust: +20 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (18) 5050 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    80. 2015418: notblox1 (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (0) 1423 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    81. 2143453: 1miau (Trust: +8 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (19) 7440 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    82. 2344286: Little Mouse (Trust: +36 / =1 / -1) (DT1! (7) 2949 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    83. 2363935: YOSHIE (Trust: +10 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (18) 1825 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    84. 2477002: inspace (Trust: +5 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (4) 885 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    85. 2497429: jokers10 (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (9) 3765 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    86. 2519096: Awaklara (Trust: +1 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (4) 792 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    87. 2652924: geophphreigh (Trust: +31 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 1099 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    88. 2654005: zasad@ (Trust: +2 / =3 / -0) (DT1! (9) 5106 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    89. 2658890: Rikafip (Trust: +12 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (23) 7168 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    90. 2709122: Etranger (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 1638 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    91. 2739454: Stalker22 (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (8) 1477 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    92. 2776678: Charles-Tim (Trust: +7 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (4) 5765 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    93. 2796662: Lillominato89 (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 1059 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    94. 2836461: Free Market Capitalist (Trust: +1 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (5) 2746 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    95. 3373825: paid2 (Trust: +11 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (8) 3705 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    96. 3442614: YodasRedRocket (Trust: +32 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 638 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    97. 3506304: God Of Thunder (Trust: +4 / =4 / -0) (DT1! (2) 1246 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)

DT 2
     1. 3: satoshi (Trust: +45 / =0 / -0) (7804 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. 4: sirius (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (804 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. 1268: nanotube (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (1 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. 2252: laanwj (Trust:  neutral) (30 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. 2676: casascius (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (141 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. 2759: midnightmagic (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (27 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. 2786: Pieter Wuille (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (198 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. 3318: Luke-Jr (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (190 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. 3380: Vladimir (Trust:  neutral) (1 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. 3420: dooglus (Trust: +11 / =0 / -0) (333 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. 4171: Raize (Trust:  neutral) (24 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. 4528: Matt Corallo (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (15 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. 6347: Maged (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (17 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    14. 6447: forrestv (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (143 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)

Bitcoin Power Law Based Loan Simulator

https://hostfat.github.io/Bitcoin_Power_Law_Based_Loan_Simulator

Tool che ho creato a perditempo con le varie LLM
Ho usato un po' gemini, chatgpt, cloude e grok.

Come premessa riguardo al futuro prezzo del Bitcoin, di dare per buona la Power Law.

Power law:
https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/the-bitcoin-power-law-theory-962dfaf99ee9
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/power-law

Ad esempio ora che scrivo su AAVE, mettendo come collaterale BTC, si ha la liquidazione con LTV a 78%.

Quindi, immaginando che vogliate spendere ogni anno 10000 dollari (valore messo in esempio), mettete l'LTV a 78%, e cliccate su "Calculate Safe BTC".
Vi indicherà quanti Bitcoin vi servono per sopravvivere da oggi al 2085.

Viene anche calcolata l'inflazione da voi impostata, cioè, calcolando l'aumento del prestito per rispettare il potere d'acquisto corrispondente anche negli anni successivi.

Calcola anche gli interessi da pagare per il prestito, che possono influire quindi su una liquidazione anticipata.

Questo schema vi permetterebbe anche di pagare zero tasse, perché non stareste vendendo mai alcun Bitcoin.
Serve comunque un bravo commercialista per guidarvi in questa linea.

Ovviamente niente di tutto questo è certo, il Bitcoin può anche fallire domani, per conto suo, per una caduta di una meteora, o per il controllo dell'umanità da parte della AI etc ...
Oppure il servizio di prestiti potrebbe fallire, portarsi via i soldi, subire un furto ...

Ditemi se è abbastanza comprensibile, o se trovate qualche bug

Ho preso ispirazione da questi:
https://bitcoinretirement.net/
https://bitcoinborrowdie.com/
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Segnalato anche sul mio canale: https://t.me/hostfatmind/629

Weekly update (2025-08-15_Fri_05.18h)


theymos' raw data (format: time    amount    msg    user_from    user_to)
Sample
Full list^* (51 MB) (not limited to 120 days, 2405 Merit transactions added since my previous update).

theymos' data (human readable format, including usernames and post titles)
Sample
On Fri 15 Aug 2025 04:48:04 AM CEST, joker_josue (history) sent 1 Merit to rdluffy (history) for Re: O dia depois de amanhă e os planos para o depois. .
On Fri 15 Aug 2025 04:24:36 AM CEST, Little Mouse (history) sent 2 Merit to BABY SHOES (history) for Re: [CFNP] BC.game Signature Campaign V-2 | Hero/Legendary | Up to $100/week.
On Fri 15 Aug 2025 04:20:56 AM CEST, virginorange (history) sent 2 Merit to MaxMueller (history) for Re: Bitcoin-Vererbung.
On Fri 15 Aug 2025 04:17:46 AM CEST, virginorange (history) sent 2 Merit to MaxMueller (history) for Re: [Neue Auswertungen] Wir deutschsprachigen und die Merits ... .
On Fri 15 Aug 2025 03:59:17 AM CEST, Julien_Olynpic (history) sent 2 Merit to Alex077 (history) for Re: Биткойн-оптимизм..
.......
.......
.......
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:28:54 PM CET, AdolfinWolf (history) sent 1 Merit to Lutpin (history) for Re: What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:54 PM CET, Dahman El_Harrachi (history) sent 1 Merit to theymos (history) for Re: Forum ranks/positions/badges (What do those shiny coins under my name mean?).
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:22 PM CET, Tyrantt (history) sent 5 Merit to AdolfinWolf (history) for What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:13 PM CET, Last of the V8s (history) sent 2 Merit to Rosewater Foundation (history) for Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:12:21 PM CET, theymos (history) sent 1 Merit to AdolfinWolf (history) for What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
Full list (542 MB)

Usernames to go with theymos' data
Sample
0: deMerit (Bitcoin Forum) (history) earned: 0 Merit.
3: satoshi (history) earned: 7804 Merit.
4: sirius (history) earned: 804 Merit.
10: Xunie (history) earned: 1 Merit.
11: madhatter (history) earned: 5 Merit.
.......
.......
.......
3720204: nameisnotknown (history) earned: 5 Merit.
3721426: freebitcovictim (history) earned: 1 Merit.
3721552: crowolf (history) earned: 2 Merit.
3721588: krems_hive (history) earned: 2 Merit.
3722054: Ton Poker (history) earned: 5 Merit.
Full list^* (10 MB)

Usernames machine readable
Sample
Full list (2 MB)

UserIDs, sent Merit and earned Merit machine readable
Sample
Full list (1 MB)

Total number of users who received 1 or more Merit: 50127
Sample
Full list (5 MB)

Total number of users who gave away 1 or more sMerit: 26277
Sample
Full list (3 MB)

Merit per day of the week
Monday 301233 (14.27%)
Tuesday 302659 (14.33%)
Wednesday 301992 (14.30%)
Thursday 322433 (15.27%)
Friday 321943 (15.25%)
Saturday 279859 (13.25%)
Sunday 280522 (13.29%)
Total: 2110641

---

^* This file will be overwritten by newer versions

I am playing when I have free time but I dont pay attention to rankings.
Dewez is always changing something and I am not surprised he did a ranking system reset.

This sounds promising, and I have to test this new games when they get released.
Did you consider reducing $10 withdrawals for altcoins?

Thanks for mentioning us @bitmover.

Previously, we did swap coins from eXch (ETH and BTC) without any issues.

It's strange that they didn't provide you with any other request, additional KYC, or proof of source of funds.

Due to one "minor" transaction, all eXch addresses and coins that left there were marked tainted. After the hack, Bybit offered a reward for every frozen coin, apparently, MEXC strictly adheres to this and appropriates everything that once passed through eXch.

---

Add Splash.tf to the list, maybe even to the top of the list, considering that they offer the best conditions and are closest to the standard we are used to from eXch. It is only necessary that they increase the reserves.

Whale.io po raz kolejny uruchomiło nowy konkurs:


[...]

• Rules/Prizes

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ 2 Winners, will share a prize of $50 in Free Bets! 🎁
➥ You can choose 2 SLOTS if you have shared a screenshot of your bets in the ANN Thread in the last 2 weeks. 🐳
➥ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool for a fair and transparent draw / We reserve the right to ignore any participant.
[/quote]

to całkiem proste ... wytypuj jedną lub dwie liczby i miej nadzieję, że wygrasz 25$ (50$ zostanie podzielone między dwóch zwycięzców).
jak prawie zawsze, możesz również opublikować swoje typy za pośrednictwem Whale.io w oficjalnym ann, a następnie możesz wybrać 2 liczby w konkursach Whale. jest to zdecydowanie opłacalne, ponieważ Whale organizuje konkursy bardzo regularnie

Neues Gewinnspiel von whale.io

Whale.io hat mal wieder ein neues Gewinnspiel gestartet:


[...]

• Rules/Prizes

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ 2 Winners, will share a prize of $50 in Free Bets! 🎁
➥ You can choose 2 SLOTS if you have shared a screenshot of your bets in the ANN Thread in the last 2 weeks. 🐳
➥ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool for a fair and transparent draw / We reserve the right to ignore any participant.
[/quote]

Ist also recht einfach ... eine oder zwei Nummern tippen und hoffentlich über den Gewinn von 25$ (die 50$ werden auf zwei Gewinner aufgeteilt) freuen.
Ihr könnt auch wie fast immer eure Tipps über Whale.io im offiziellen ANN posten, dann dürft ihr bei den Whale-Gewinnspielen 2 Nummern tippen. Zahlt sich durchaus aus, da Whale doch sehr regelmäßig Gewinnspiele veranstaltet ... und die deutsche Bundesliga jetzt auch losgeht und man sowieso wieder voll im Tippfieber ist

Yes that is correct @bitmover 

I always do my best to warn everyone, since third-party exchange may freeze customer deposit and ask KYC + source of funds.

We have seen many examples;

[SCAM WARNING] Godex locked my coins (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5540023.msg65330395#msg65330395)

[SCAM] go-go.exchange STOLE 11000 USDT (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5552339.0)

and more...

Front loading is a concept that can be done with DCA, lump sum and/or buying on the dip.  Front loading is not just done for buying on the dip, and generally it is problematic to be emphasizing buying the dip, even though surely some people might hold some lump sum amount and decide to buy the dip with large sums of such lump sum amount.


I would think that the first things that we try to work out is figuring out how much discretionary funds that we have on a regular basis, and if we have income that comes in regularly, and then maybe we have some other funds that we might be able to use as lump sum, then we can figure out how we plan to use them, and likely we would consider all three options, even though sometimes the ONLY thing that makes sense for newbies is DCA since maybe they either do not have a lot of discretionary income or they have not figured out their budget exactly and how BTC investing and/or strengthening their cashflow management systems/practices fits into their individual factors.


I would not consider a 10% dip to be massive, and surely there is not way of knowing if the dip might be more from here or not.  It is not unusual for various dips to take place with bitcoin, even though perhaps every time dips happen folks try to proclaim that this time is different blah blah blah.. and maybe it is different, and maybe not.  It is not a good practice to get overly presumptive about the short-term price, even if everyone (or nearly everyone) is expecting BTC price to reach $180k or larger.  I certainly expect that there are good odds for BTC reaching $180k or larger in the coming 1-10 months, yet still I understand that there is also a possibility that the top for this cycle is already in at $124.5k... and yeah, it is possible to have both scenarios in our head at the same time and to be financially and psychologically prepared for either scenario or some other variation.


You are a newbie trying to learn as fast as you can?   Have you started buying bitcoin yet?

It looks like you have been registered on the forum for 4-ish months.  Did you start looking into bitcoin prior to your forum registration?

You seem to have the right idea that if we consider our income and then our basic expenses (which sometimes can vary or be a bit unclear if they are basic or not), then once we subtract our basic expenses from our income, we have our discretionary income (or our discretionary funds).  We can use those discretionary funds to consume more items (goods/services) and/or to invest into something like bitcoin and/or to stock away into our back up funds (emergency funds and/or reserves).  So yeah investing is a kind of expense we choose to make with part of our discretionary income, whether we invest aggressively or whimpily or some place in between.

When we invest we tend to have three possible ways to buy/accumulate bitcoin 1) buy right away or lump sum, 2) DCA and/or 3) buy on dips.  Of course, if we assess our regular income and expenses, we will likely see that our discretionary income might vary from month to month or week to week, and with DCA we could adjust them every week in accordance with how much discretionary income we have or we could set an amount every week like $100 per week, and if we set an strict amount, then surely the weekly fluctuation in our discretionary income would need to not go so low as to cause our $100 per week to go beyond our discretionary income.  There are a variety of ways to deal with making adjustments to the amount of BTC that we buy each week, yet surely a lot of people might consider it to be easier to just have a set amount, even though having a set amount might be too aggressive on some weeks and too whimpy on other weeks.

I think that Popkon6 likely misspoke when he was suggesting that employing DCA allows for the reduction of expenses, even though the use of DCA likely allows us to adjust our weekly buy amounts and using DCA might incentivize us to purposefully reduce our expenses in order that we would have more money left over to employ with our weekly DCA (or whatever period that we might be DCA buying our BTC).  Even though DCA is not our only tool, it does tend to provide quite a bit of flexibility in how we might flexibly allocate our weekly amounts that we are investing into bitcoin, and surely if we are fairly new to bitcoin we might be simultaneously trying to balance our investment into bitcoin and the strengthening of our cashflow management systems/practices, which surely involves both building up our back up funds but also paying more attention to whether we consider each and every of our expenses to be as important as our building up our bitcoin stack and also building up our back up funds.

At the same time, if we are paying more attention to both our income and our expenses, then we likely are going to be able to identify areas in which we might be able to increase our income and/or cut our expenses, yet at the same time, we might want to make sure that we might still have some flexibility in our budget and even to sometimes be able to spend in areas that might either help us to build relationship or even to show that we are paying our fair share, even if we might notice places that we might be able to cut our expenses (such as going out for drinks with buddies), yet it still might be better to spend that money on the place that we could cut rathe than to cut and then to end up with worse social relations... These are not easy and/or straight-forward judgement calls, even though each of us need to make those kinds of decisions and/or priorities for ourselves on a weekly and/or monthly basis.


I largely agree with you point of trying to appreciate the bright side of dips, especially for guys who are still accumulating bitcoin. 

So far, every 4 year cycle the BTC price ended up hitting the 200-WMA, yet that still does not guarantee that it will happen. .and so far, the BTC price ends up hitting the 200-WMA about 6 months to a year after the peak of the cycle.. so it can take a bit of time to get down to that point....

Another thing is that so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has tended to continue to go up at a pace that has never been less than 19% per year, and that is not guaranteed either.

Another thing is that during bull season (or non bear season), the BTC price tends to stay at least 25% or higher above the 200-WMA, and that is not guaranteed to continue either, even though it has been bitcoin's history so far.  Right now the BTC price is about 117% higher than the 200-WMA.  You can look at bitcoin's price as compared to the 200-WMA for any date in bitcoin's history on this website.


You make several good points MithiRM, yet you still come off as being a bit of a gratuitous hater, even though technically you are correct on several of your points. 

At the same time, when people invest, they may well start to learn that they are wasting a lot of money on various trinkets and other stuff that only give them short term thrills, yet there are a lot of other ways to accomplish similar kinds of short-term thrills without necessarily buying worthless gadgets or the various other ways that people might be spending their money. 

There can be a lot of self-satisfaction in disciplining ourselves, setting up frameworks for delayed gratification, and surely with something like bitcoin we might see that if we might have ONLY been able to afford 1 worthless gadget per month from our regular income, yet when we put it into bitcoin, there surely might be some temporary draw downs in the BTC price, yet after 4-6 years, we might see that we are able to buy 10s of times more of the same gadgets which adds up to 100s of the gadgets that we would not have ever could have been able to imagine being  able to afford to buy... merely based on our exercising persistent discipline, looking into the various ways that we are spending money versus investing and organizing our thoughts and our finances with more purposefulness.

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