It's also a compliance on the casino for allowing that to happen. If we customers are being pressured by the casinos to comply for their KYC approach. They're also as well as a business need to obey the regulations that they're being enforced with. It's a legal business and so, they can skipped that.

For small gamblers, they don't mind asking them KYC but eventually they'll also get to them.

Real world assets in token form are good for cryptocurrency users I guess. The one you mentioned has good market cap as well, and if the news about BlackRock issuing it is true then it's going to be a useful token for most people who love Silver investing.

Totalmente de acordo. Por isso é ainda mais incrível as novas HW, com mil e uma funcionalidade, que na realidade ninguém vai usar, mas tem a ideia que é mais seguro do que uma versão anterior.

Enfim, é a lei do mercado, o marketing é a necessidade constante de apresentar coisas novas e diferentes, mesmo quando não é preciso.

This is the first time I hear about Silver token, but then again, I am the wrong person to talk altcoins. It's good that there are digital tokens for silver, similarly to the ones for gold.

Now that you mentioned it, did you see that silver is down 14% on the daily chart? Gold is also down about 2% on the daily. Don't even get me started on bitcoin. The S&P 500 was down 1% but is slowly moving upwards now. Bad day all around.

Have you ever received a call or message from some unknown company, or from someone trying to advertise or sell you a service? That has happened to me, for example, and i don’t even know how they got my phone number or some information about me.I’m saying this because, no matter how much we try to stay anonymous, it’s difficult, since we have surely left personal data somewhere at some point , for a purchase or something else. Of course, privacy is important, as you said, but it’s hard to stay anonymous anywhere.Everyone here should try to remain anonymous as much as possible, and that’s the only really important thing

When you submit your names (real names) and your home address, you are losing your sensive identity information. I don't say Duelbits or any company in the forum intend to abuse something with your personal information but we are all aware of importance of privacy and KYC is like something bad for privacy. It's not literally KYC but somewhat the company and the shipping (delivery) company has such sensitive information from you.

It's true.

Idem, não é atoa que o mercado tem requerido cada vez mais os nossos dados e os governos (principalmente socialistas) querem cada vez ter maior controle sobre as movimentações financeiras dos clientes que operam exchanges CEX.

E o brasileiro então? Tá se cagando mais ainda pra privacidade, até mesmo no meio bitcoiner. É incrível a quantidade de dados que as empresas brasileiras costumam pedir ou guardar dos clientes, já percebeu isso? Nome, cpf, endereço residencial, dados da mãe, dados dos filhos... Uma hora que esses dados vazar, quem se lasca é a empresa, mais os clientes que agora os bandidos sabem o endereço de cada um...

É uma pena isso, realmente uma pena, se as pessoas preocupassem mais com privacidade, hoje não estaríamos nesse cenário caótico e orwelliano, onde os estados, principalmente esquerdistas, avançam sobre as liberdades individuais, dificultam ao máximo ao passo que ampliam o seu controle.

There is logic in your words, I have seen many casinos that do not ask to do kyc but later make it mandatory. But bitz is a new casino so kyc is not mandatory, even vpn use friendly. Anyway have you encountered kyc in bitz casino?

I have been using it for a long time but no problem. And There is no problem with fund withdrawal. That's why I think Know Your Customer (KYC) will not be made mandatory without any major changes.

You are referring to the 200-WMA.. which is currently at $58k.

Terima Kasih mas Husna atas Updatednya.

Saat ini saya cuma jadi DT2 forever, belum pernah sekalipun jadi DT1. Tiap minggu saya selalu dapat notif di telegram dari Loyce kalau nama saya ada di DT2.
Forum ini khususnya SFI membutuhkan member-member DT1, dan DT2 untuk menjaga lokal kita ini lebih dipercaya, serta memitigasi jika nanti ke depan ada yang mencoba scam, atau melakukan hal yang merusak citra SFI.

Saya lihat semakin ke sini semakin tidak antusias lagi, tidak kayak dulu karena mungkin orang pada sibuk nyari satoshi, dan ngepost mingguan saja, sedangkan level trust kurang begitu diantusias, gak kayak merit, dsb.

As long as users have this need, we will record it and then schedule it. Perhaps in the near future, these tokens will be listed on our website.

Admission is not going to happen from me, since I never said that the 4-year cycle was not a thing, since historically I have been a pretty strong advocate of cycle theory and stock to flow, yet as Biodom mentioned, cycle theory is not the ONLY game in town, these days.

In any event, I won't admit that you were right about anything to the extent that we might be able to figure out what you said in any meaningful and committed kind of a way.   And, whether I give recognition to your ongoing baloney or not, that has nothing to do with BTC price movements and/or when the bottom might be in.

Ongoingly you seem to be inclined to want to argue with yourself over stupid shit and still try to act like you can see into the future (when it comes to bitcoin price dynamics), and sure maybe you did happen to make trades like you said that you did.  I doubt that many guys in these here parts really care about your supposed trades (to the extent that they even believe you about them happening), even if you were to have had made such trades as you claim to have had.

Just because you may have guessed correctly while talking out of both sides of your mouth, I am also not going to agree to say that you are not retarded, emotionally excessive and/or irritating on an ongoing basis, either.

If you were to want to enter into some kind of a mutually agreeable bet with me, then if we were to agree to such bet terms (which might be a bit of a big deal to even be able to achieve, since I can hardly even manage figuring out ways to propose bets with you since you seem to ongoingly speak out of both sides of your mouth, even when you are ongoingly proclaiming to be "the winner" and the rest of us (royal?) are losers because you retroactively frame the positions that we take to be opposite to what is happening so that you are the ONLY one that is correct about whatever might be happening in bitcoin).  That is why you are one of the smartest persons (if not the smartest person?) that any of us actually know.

What I am trying to say is that if we were to figure out some bettable item and if you were to end up winning such bet, then you could possibly say that you won such bet. Historically, I cannot recall us entering into any such bet with you, even though you are now wanting to proclaim that you are a winner and also to give some emphasis to traders being superior to investors, based on the potential of some short-term gains that you might have had been able to make, in the event that you had actually traded on such BTC price moves, as you claim to have had...   Sure there are some other traders in this thread who are way less annoying than you.

If we to get into discussions of long term plays regarding bitcoin, through your historical behaviors, you have proven yourself as mostly retarded (even though you try to proclaim that you have been "killing it" since your earliest of times in bitcoin, and supposedly you got to where you are in bitcoin through trading, so in that sense you want to ongoingly proclaim that trading is the way to go based on your supposed short term success in recent times (perhaps it could have had been?).  

Many guys here, including yours truly, don't trade dee cornz and largely error on the side of investing into bitcoin rather than trying to trade it.  Yeah, sure investing in bitcoin can sometimes be frustrating in the short term during BTC price drops, yet many of the investors do not consider trading as a solution to the issue of either bitcoin accumulation or bitcoin portfolio management.  Surely I mentioned many times to you that some guys (including yours truly) are no longer in our bitcoin accumulation phase.... even though surely even if some of us are in our maintenance phase we still might buy bitcoin on dips or have other ways of managing our bitcoin holdings that seem like trading but it does not necessarily put us in our bitcoin accumulation phase.

On the other hand, you consider yourself to be in your BTC accumulation phase (even nearly 15 years after you had already been in bitcoin - at least going by your forum registration date) and you ongoingly consider trading to be one of your tools to increase your bitcoin accumulation.. which you have seemed to have had been continuing to make the same mistakes to trade bitcoin rather than invest in it, over and over but hoping for a different result..

To me it seems that bitcoin accumulation is a long game, yet if you have goals that never can be reached then, you will continue to accumulate bitcoin.  At the same time, I doubt that your ongoing fucking around with trading can beat various longer term scenarios in regards to historical accumulation, and in one of my earlier posts, I even presented you with a 138 BTC scenario, that between June 2011 and January 2013, you surely should have had been able to accumulate at least that many bitcoin, if you were even close to the baller that you are claiming yourself to be.  

In the end, I doubt that you could even beat a scenario of a guy who invested from mid 2011 to early 2013 and accumulated 138 BTC during that time... and sure maybe such guy that could have had been you just investing around $100 per month into bitcoin bitcoin, and averaging around $10 per bitcoin for such costs, so between June 2011 (your forum registration date) and January 2013, there were 20 months, so you could have had easily accumulated more than 200 bitcoin for right around $2k spent over 20 months, so that kind of a budget is not even a BiG BALLER amount of money invested in bitcoin over that 20 month period of time, and I am giving you some room for error and mistakes and to say that you ONLY were able to hang onto 138 BTC of those BTC.  

Right now if you were to have a BTC stash of 138 because you had mostly accumulated the bitcoin and held onto them and not fucked around with trading, then if you were to have 138 BTC or more, then you would not have to fuck around trading, since you would be able to have enough bitcoin to have an income of $800k per year (plus a 7% raise every year forever and ever and ever).  Wouldn't that be enough of a "passive" income for you?

You want more and more and more?

You want to continue to argue about your ongoingly proven to be wrong (especially in longer terms) dumb trading approach to bitcoin even though historically, you have left all kinds of money on the table from that repeated trading approach bitcoin, most likely due to your trading (selling too much bitcoin too soon approach) rather than employing an investing approach, even though you continually want to tout trading as if it were a better approach to bitcoin portfolio management.

In the end, I would not even want to spend time considering how to enter a bet with you since I consider you to be an increasingly annoying spin-doctor kind of a person, even though you were annoying earlier also.  

I do agree that there could have had been possibilities in the past that you could have had won a bet regarding today's BTC price since I would have bet against today's sub $74k prices having had happened .. so for example, I would have had bet against both a dip below $74k and also that so far, we have spent a few days either touching upon or even going below $74k.. so I would have had bet against that if you would have had had enough balls to have had spent time figuring out the bet and entering into  such bet on the opposite side.. as you are proclaiming that you would have had been right about something, yet you waffle around quite a bit when it comes to commitment.  

Yet, I will concede that if you would have had agreed to enter such a bet with me in October-ish or whenever it was that you were proclaiming yourself to have been some form of Nostradamus, then I might have considered enter into such a bet with you, since I would have had a hard time imagining the BTC price getting down to $74k by this time... .. yet surely a lot of that is hypothetical since you tend to not want to commit yourself to such specifics, and it is not even like I am inclined to want to negotiate specifics with such a seemingly ongoing weasely guy like you...


Pardons can only be issued for prior conduct not future conduct, even though surely the US Govt. and likely Blackrock too.. got its little tentacles into Binance back in 2023 and they likely have been increasingly wanting to get and keep CZ and Binance "in line" in various ways.. so yeah, both CZ and Tether are likely getting themselves in balls deeper than they wished that they would have had been or should have had been.


You are talking about 2018, 2019, 2020.  The crashes into the $3ks were horrible, but surely there were guys who were deadset on bitcoin touching $1k or even going below $2k.

Yet, similar things happened in 2022 and 2023 with guys thinking that the BTC price needed to go down to $10k or $12k.

The bets may end up being quite big.

I remember quite a few stories from early 2017 when guys thought that it was inevitably going below $500, and the lowest it got was around $820.

I don't have AdGuard, but it is very likely someone reported the website as scam or fraudulent, and they included it in the blacklist of websites that are to be blocked by AdGuard and any service that uses their database.

There was/is another similar case - MetaMask blocklist abuse — legitimate exchange blocked after competitor threats

The most important thing is that at least uie pooie are having a lots  of funzies with your machine_Human?_mind-melding posts.

And the other thing is that you railed/refused to disclose how it feels to be be a mind-melded gadget?



     


I speak about getting to fuck you status, and I suppose implicitly I am suggesting that bitcoin is both a good way to get to fuck you status and then to be able to have a sustainable withdrawal options that should allow a staying at fuck you status once arrival had been achieved.

Of course, being at fuck you status merely means having the option not to work so long as the amount of BTC accumulated would support the targeted income rate.

I suggest abilities to engage in full withdrawal amounts as long as the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA., and then the withdrawal rates start to reduce once the spot price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA.

If you have plenty of excess cushion then your ongoing withdraw should not matter so much, and I ONLY suggest to completely eliminate any withdrawals once (or if) the BTC price goes more than 35% bellow the 200-WMA.

Here's my description from the sustainable withdrawal website:

>>>>>>" When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget."<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Currently BTC prices are barely at 25% above the 200-WMA, and of course there still might be a reluctance to withdraw any bitcoin from your BTC holdings when the price is seeming to be suppressed.. so I am merely giving some framework that guys might or might not choose to use.

Let's say that one of us had an income that had advanced from $30k to $50k between early 2016 and late 2024... So on average we had been investing into bitcoin around $150k per week, and by the end of 2024, we had invested around $70k into bitcoin and we had accumulated right about 22.81 BTC, and so largely through the years of investing into bitcoin, we had kept in our minds that with a bit of confidence once bitcoin was going to be able to support an $80k per year income and with 7% increases per year, then we would quit our job and begin to live off of bitcoin.

And so perhaps at the end of 2024, as the Trump pump was going on, we decide to look up how many bitcoin we need, and we see that it is 19.23 to support an $80k per year income, and since we have 22.81 BTC, we have right around 3.58 BTC extra cushion... So then perhaps on December 1, 2024 we pulled the fuck you lever, and we also started to withdraw $6,666 per month from our bitcoin.

So then when we look at the past 14 months, we see that we had withdrawn right around 1.09 BTC, so our bitcoin stash has gone down from 22.81 BTC to 21.72 BTC, and we see that right now, it takes 14.835 BTC to support an $85.6k income, and so we still have 6.886 BTC extra, so even though we were withdrawing at our target rate our bitcoin reserves (extra cushion stash had nearly doubled in its size in the past 14 months)... Accordingly, we adjust our monthly withdrawal rate go up 7% to $7,133 per month for the next 12-ish months.

Even though we have flexibility and discretion regarding our withdrawal rate, there can be a bit of stability to use the 200-WMA as the valuation guide and even to have some extra BTC to serve as a cushion in order to make sure that we are not withdrawing too much too soon, and so our withdrawal system starts out as sustainable and remains sustainable even when there might be some dramatic BTC price changes after we had already entered fuck you status.


Never a dull moment in the WO thread.

There are all kinds of funzies happening "on the regular."

Funciona se tiver KYC na binance.Acho que a binance já reporta tudo para a receita federal. O tópico é sobre como conseguir o melhor valor no USDC sem o KYC

Eu prefiro vender assim que não confio que eles tenham informação de todas minhas vendas e de que eu fico vendendo bitcoin ou USDC

Tambem achei a cotação melhor com o cashback da p2p.me

Eu uso hyperliquid e foi até você que recomendou

Mas esse tópico eu estava falando de vender USDC por Reais. Não tem como fazer isso no hyperliquid por que eles não aceitam pix.

Mas isso não é preciso KYC?
Já ouvi falar disso, mas nunca explorei.

They simply abandoned the token and the code as well, does that mean it's been completely abandoned? Were you able to move your assets in time?

That's good to hear, are there plans to add support for Liquid network assets as well?

bitmover loves creating drama which goes nowhere. If I keep going, he will just move the goal post or ignore any arguments while the topic is polluted, I saw this happen many times on the portuguese board. He is a very dishonest guy, so it's just waste of time and so much easier to just ignore it completely.

That's sad, but I hope everyone sees the point here.

I've ran raffles the same way since 2022. A simple HTML page that takes a list of entries (rather than the bot doing it automatically) is not an original creation, definitely does not deserve any "credits".

If he is so keen in giving credits, maybe he should have credited my Bitcoin Price Image v2 when he copied it here. He even gave me 1 merit for it, so I'm sure he saw it before. But I see no credits, so I'm not too worried about his claims. He just wants drama.

/done

Are you buying only digital tokens or also physical gold?

Your post just made me think of a gold token I saw being advertised a lot on Bitcointalk a few years ago. It took me some time to remember its name and to find the associated ANN thread. I wanted to ask you if you tried it. The first time I saw their signatures, I remember that they had an exchange on their website where you could buy and sell their Gold tokens. Anyways, turns out they seized all operations in 2025, and the project is dead now. The token was called GOLD if anyone is wondering. The ANN is here.

Раффл от CCE.Cash: ♻️ CCE.Cash 🎁 FREE RAFFLE 🎁 $30 in BTC!



Правила/Призы


*Вы можете выбрать 2 слота, если оставляли комментарии в ANN CCE.Cash до анонса раффла (за последние 2 недели)
Для определения победителя будет использоваться инструмент http://bitcoindata.science/giveaway-manager/

Свободные места:

Like I said on my previous post, I've ran free raffles exactly the same way (provably fair with the bitcoin block hash) on bitcointalk since 2022, at least one year before you released your tool (2023). So, if anything, I think maybe you were the one missing credits.

You might have fogotten that you even participated on many of them (i.e https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5405086.msg60504842#msg60504842 - in July 2022)

Anyways, other people feel free to give any constructive feedback. Besides that, I honestly see no point in prolonging this conversation. It's a basic raffle tool made on an afternoon, no need to overthink it.

For transparency, bitmover has been on my ignore list since forever as I have no interest in talking to him. I think my answer settles it, so no need to temporarily remove him again.

Yes, we have added Paxos Gold (PAXG) to the list of currencies to be added.

Yes.. I already went through same url you gave me earlier while discussing but I haven’t attempt modifications yet.  It doesn’t affect the pairing,  but I can still make use of it and set max as the legth of participant ..
Not sure how forum users will turn up for it , maybe around 30~50  but I might just limit it  to 100 if more users show interest within the deadline period..  There’s possibility of few 10 to 20 too but any how  my target is 100 .
Each will deposit minimum of $5 and max of $10 (applies to anyone that one to add extra $5 to the pool) in BTC.

I can’t control the number of participants except it reaches the limit so there’s possibility I get odd numbers of participants aswell.

That's more than you need, even if you are planning to have everything on the same server.  I've ran Bitcoin Core, ElectrmX, BTCPay, LND, and a mempool docker container on my own hardware with 4 cores and 8GB of ram.  Never had an issue, but my system wasn't available to the public.

Eventually I upgraded to 16GB of ram because I wanted to run a Monero node on it as well.  It probably wasn't necessary, but synchronizing the blockchain may have taken a bit longer.  The ram usage spiked during synch, but became very low after that.

---

That hasn't been necessary since version 4.6.2

I doubt that the percentages of retrace matter as much as how many bitcoin that any of us might have and whether that quantity is enough to support some withdrawal or maybe if we are in a situation in which we are borderline in our determination of whether we have enough coins (or more than enough coins), we just have to wait before withdrawing any (to the extent that we might be living off our bitcoin or supplementing our income from our bitcoin stash).

I understand that there is ongoing reluctance to sell on dips, just like there are ongoing reluctances for newbies to get into bitcoin because they tend to generally conclude that the whole of bitcoin's history and price movements are merely just one BIG unsustainable pump.

If I were someone on the border of not being sure if I have enough bitcoin to continue to withdraw, then sure maybe the withdrawals would shrink as the BTC price continues to go down, then at some point the withdrawals (sales) would stop happening and then at some further point a status of nonselling would likely convert into buying.. even if the buy amounts might be relatively modest.


It is likely we continue to tell ourselves that future bitcoin price dips will not be as bad as the current one or like previous ones, yet we repeatedly find ourselves in such situations in which the current dip seems like the end of the world, even though it may well be bordering on earlier ATH prices.

Even though frequently I am feeling that with the passage of time, that each time that fairly deep dips come, I am better prepared financially and psychologically as compared with earlier deep dip times, yet at the same time, the discomfort never really goes away from the downity and not knowing how low it will go.. and/or when the BTC price might start to reverse and resume its uppity.

Another thing is that each time that we go through these deep dippening times, feelings can develop that "bitcoin is really dead, this time.".. .. and anyone can get lost in regards to where they are at, and maybe the newer bitcoiners feel like they have less to lose, since they are just ongoingly buying, as compared with guys who are losing value in ways that are greater than any amount of coins that they might consider buying.

So, yeah, newbies stack away, even though newbies also might become reluctant in their stacking, since who would not want to buy bitcoin cheaper?  yet we can never really know when the knife is going to stop falling.


You must be talking about the 200-WMA, since the 200-WMA is currently at $58k and so far in bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA has always gone up.

The 200-DMA is $103.5k and the 200-DMA is for sure falling.

The 200-WMA is usually only reached in the depth of a bear market, so yeah, the fact that we are getting so close to the 200-WMA might be a sign that we might actually be in a bear market.. sucks to potentially be in such a place and you are correct, if we do not get a strong bounce, then there is more likelihood that we are in a bear market.

Since my buys had started around $120k and my outstanding buy orders go down to right around the mid-$30ks , I would give a rough estimate that right around 50% of my buying funds have been used up, yet much of those funds had been intended to be able to graduate out of the BTC funds and to be able to spend such "extra" funds without worry... but yeah, the BTC price keeps dropping.  

My buy orders in the lower $74ks got filled did not get filled yet (getting close now, as I type), then they are staggered in $2,500 increments down, and then thereafter, the buy orders are in $2k increments down if we were to get down to $69k and below.

I would rather not use the buy funds, even though such buy funds are present.


If you frame the matter like that, then Tether is waiting until they earn interest (not that they are making money in real terms when it comes to the debasement of the dollar), and MSTR is anticipating that in the future bitcoin will continue to earn in the ballpark of 30% per year on average, so then in the long run, paying of 11% ends up paying off as long as bitcoin (on average) goes up at least on average of more than 11% per year... I suppose that if MSTR is thinking that they can get through both the downs and the ups, and if the upward price appreciation of bitcoin continues to average out around 30% (or perhaps at least above 11%) then MSTR will still end up profitting.

There are quite a few presumptions in MSTR's approach to bitcoin, yet a lot of the money that they had borrowed in earlier years had ended up paying off to the extent that they had been able to keep their debt levels low enough so that they ended up accumulating a lot of unencumbered bitcoin that they would have had not been able to accumulate without the various fancy financialization (debt) products.

Right from the start, I had considered MSTR playing too loosey goosey, yet a lot of what they had been doing had been working, so then during these kinds of BIG corrections, we might end up being able to see the extent to which what they are doing had been built in a way that they don't end up with having to engage in selling practices that might spiral downwards.  MSTR continues to proclaim that they are not going to have to sell any BTC absent really outrageously low BTC prices, perhaps even if the prices were to get into the $20ks or lower.. so yeah, we don't always know if anyone is telling the truth (especially in the market) unless they end up getting tested in ways that are meaningfully rigorous... and MSTR has already shown various weaknesses in its armor in recent times.
 

Why not OgNasty himself?

OgNasty must be amongst one of the smartest people (traders) (if not the smartest?) that any of us have ever come into contact with.


From the sustainable withdrawal calculating tool and other assumptions that I make in relation to the BTC price as compared with the 200-WMA, I can figure out the withdrawal rate based on achieving any particular level of BTC accumulation now, or if we were to choose a past date in which a certain quantity of BTC had been achieved an then a sustainable withdrawal rate might have had begun.

I believe that right now $800k with a 7% dollar increase forever into the future would be sustainable from a bitcoin holding that is at least 138.047 as long as the BTC spot price mostly stays at least 25% above the 200-WMA.

I really don't want to go into tax ramifications because they tend to vary so much, and I don't even think that tax ramifications is a great topic for open public threads like this, since there tends to be qute a bit of individual variance, and sometimes we might bat around various theories about how to treat taxes and we may or may not end up carrying out our accounting in the ways that we might theorize as being feasible.. and then when push comes to shove, we might end up talking about some application in one way, yet when we apply it to our taxes we might end up treating it in another way.  

Other guys could jump in if they want to discuss tax ramifications of withdrawing in the ballpark of $800k per year with a 7% increase of the dollar amount into perpetuity, or at least until death do us part.  

Of course if someone were to be withdrawing $800k per year from bitcoin, there are surely likely to be quite a few tax ramifications since I think in my examples from the above-cited post, I was mostly presuming like someone like pompous OgNasty into bitcoin early who supposedly had a decent amount of capital could have had fairly easily accumulated 138 BTC prior to 2013 and even without deploying a ,.ot of capital whether he had a lot or not.. . so then maybe the cost basis from someone who had been able to do much of their BTC accumulation prior to 2013 might have had been around $10 per coin - even though, sure at the same time, there could be circumstances in which the cost basis for various coins (or various tranches of coins) ends up being much higher, which is another reason that I think guys tend to need to figure out these matters based on their own circumstances.

Let's get back to what I consider the more interesting aspects (and the parts that I would prefer to talk about), which is that right now based on the presumptions of my tool, based on today's price and the 200-WMA, a guy with 138.047 BTC would be able to cash out right around $66,667 (0.84637773 BTC) per month as long as BTC spot prices remain higher than 25% above the 200-WMA.  He could have had also chosen to withdraw quarter by quarter or year by year or he could have had even attempted to strategize his withdrawal when the BTC price are high and withdraw a few years in advance and to minimize the extent to which he might end up having to withdraw from his stash when BTC prices are relatively lower (which might end up having some luck involved in regards to what the BTC price might end up being at the time when the withdrawals are made).

In the end, each of us remains responsible for trying to figure out the extent to which we might be able to try to strategize around our expectations of how high the BTC spot price might go relative to the 200-WMA or on the opposite side how low the BTC spot price might go relative to the 200-WMA.  Even in recent times, I have been even starting to question some of the presumptions of my tool in  regards to outside limits and/or what is extreme, yet it seems to me that if we are withdrawing within the parameters of BTC's spot price's distances from the 200-WMA, then we might at least be guiding ourselves with some cushion in terms of time and price, to the extent that we might feel that overall BTC average prices warrants making upward or downward adjustments to our withdrawal rate - which I attempt to put some ideas into the withdrawal tool (and the "how to use" instructions) about downwardly or upwardly adjusting based on BTC spot price distances from the 200-WMA.

By the way, there could be some guys who achieve way lower levels of BTC accumulation, since I was largely using 138 BTC based on OgNasty having had laughed at $80k per year as an entry level fuck you status, and so using 10x that rate (accordingly $800k per year), then I thought that several of the points could have had still been made in regards to a quantity of BTC that would have had been fairly easily attainable for guys who had opportunities to accumulate bitcoin prior to 2013.

Surely we have a lot of guys who are much more humble and even willing to admit that they live more modest lives and/or that they are willing to budget themselves, even if they also might not negate having some hookers, lambos and blow in their budgets... so surely we likely have all kinds of guys who might have anywhere between 13.8 BTC and 138 BTC who are active in these here parts, which they might consider to be enough bitcoin to go into some variation of fuck you status so that they might mostly start to get income from their bitcoin rather than income through obligatory work (I mean the work becomes no longer obligatory)..

There also could be guys here who could have had fairly easily gotten their stack of bitcoin size  in the range of 13.8 BTC to 138 BTC, yet they might have had screwed up somewhere in the process - and not just mindrust, even though he appears to be an exemplary case where he likely could have had either gotten himself into the range or just at least held through the bad times and still ended up with having 10-ish BTC today (slightly below the above western life-style range).


I think that BitHodlers was referring to likely concerns that Satoshi had around the time that Satoshi left bitcoin in late 2010 and when Satoshi gave keys to Gavin.. referring to Gavin's announcement that he (Gavin) was meeting with the CIA, which yeah, that seems contradictory to give the bitcoin source code repository keys to a guy who is considered to potentially have had already compromised himself.. and bitcoin was already open source by then, so surely the code had already been distributed on a pretty wide basis.

Gavin's meeting and errors with Craig Wright in early 2016 were "holy shit" type pieces of information (and conduct from Gavin) that were likely not as sophisticated as what you are making them out to be.  Surely Gavin showed poor judgement on a lot of levels in and around his having had met with Craig but also came out to publicly support Craig.... and Gavin's conduct to publicly announce his confidence in Craig after the various errors that were not completely know also seemed to have had forced Core into a corner in terms of the seeming to need to remove Gavin as one of the five maintainers (which happened May 2, 2016) - even though Gavin had already stepped down as lead maintainer a couple of years earlier in April 2014.

If they are identical tools, then it can be considered competition. Even the design is quite similar if the differences in colors are ignored.
Is it possible that developers are running out of ideas and are making identical tools?

We know that the future is not guaranteed, and we cannot even be sure about the ramifications of the consequences of our actions.

Even though past performance does not equal future performance or results, we likely can see scenarios where guys screw things up based on their own impatience and/or bad judgement.... so they end up in a worse situation based on their lack of patience

Let's say that 10 years ago, a guy in mid 50s came into bitcoin, and based on his health and lifestyle, he figure that at best he would be able to work another 10 years and then he would be stuck with whatever the results of what he had done since he would not be able to work anymore.  He had various screwed up matters regarding debts that he had to get under control, and largely his income was in the $30ks to $40ks, so he figured that if he could replace his income that would be good and best case scenario would be that he could double his income and draw $80k per year from his investment.  He decided to invest $100 per week into bitcoin (which would be in the range of 13% to 17% of his income into bitcoin)

We can look at DCA calculators to see that he could have had reached his best case goal to get to a point to have had been able to accumulate more than enough bitcoin with 14.13 BTC when right now it ONLY takes around 13.7992 BTC to be able to generate $80k per year income and a 7% raise in the dollar amount each year.

Even though this guy could have had stayed focused on bitcoin, he did not.  10 years is a long time, and he ended up getting distracted, and on a couple of occasions he cashed out some bitcoin and he thought that he would be able to replace them later, but he ended up not replacing the bitcoin... so let's say in 2018 he sold 4 BTC for around $10k each.. so he ended up getting $40k for those... and maybe 2021 he sold another 4 BTC for around $50k each, so he got another $200k... .. so at the end of the whole deal he has right around 6 BTC rather than 14 BTC, which still is not a total disaster, but not as good of a place as he could have had been, so he just has to deal with his BTC stash size of 6 BTC rather than a stash size of 14 BTC, and he did have the fortune of cashing out $240k, so his sales were not total losses, even though they ended up depleting his final stash and even taking him down from his earlier goals. 

Right now 6 BTC would still allow him to generate an income of $34,700 per year with 7% raises each year.. which is not a bad place to be. We can imagine situations where guys screw up their situation even worse, especially sometimes when they might think that they have more time to make up for their mistakes and then they end up selling way too much BTC too early and are not able to recover from their mistakes.


Likely the presumption should be that the more assets and/or experiences a guy has a the time he is new to bitcoin, then the more options that he has based on his having more to work with. 

If a person has little to no experience investing, then they need to work with what they got which includes building up an investment from their discretionary income.  Surely even some beginners will have experiences managing their income in order to have confidence that they do not run out of money between paychecks, yet if they have negative experiences in their cashflow management practices, they likely need to work on those once they get started investing into bitcoin since they have to be making sure that they are investing into bitcoin from their discretionary funds and they also have enough of a cash cushion between their bitcoin investment so that they are not forced into a position of having to sell some or all of their bitcoin at time that is not of their own choosing...

..so yeah, cashflow management and determining discretionary income are basic skills that need to be built upon and potentially learned, even though they might not need to be learned before getting started, unless the newbie investor (hopefully with common sense) identifies that he needs to shore up aspects of his cashflow management in order to assure that he has discretionary funds available prior to buying bitcoin..


You seem to be wanting to make matters more complicated than they need to be in order to get started investing into bitcoin. 

With bitcoin investment one of the most important things is to get started instead of stalling and/or waiting, and all you need to get started is discretionary funds and common sense.

If you are lacking in comfort and/or knowledge in regards to the extent to which you have discretionary funds available now or in the future, then you keep your investment amount low and to invest within your comfort level, which you should be able to figure out your comfort level if you have common sense. 

Of course, there are basics involving figuring out are you going to start out with $100 per week, or $10 per week or some other amount, and then where are you going to initially source your bitcoin, and so maybe a brand new person to bitcoin looks at a few charts and sees that BTC prices go up, down sideways and they are all over the place, and then he does a ballpark consideration regarding how much money he has available right now and then maybe he considers on a ballpark level how much he would have each week.  So he starts with an initial amount, and maybe he considers that he could easily invest $100 per week into bitcoin, yet since he hardly knows anything about it, he decides to start with $30, and then thereafter $30 per week while he looks further into the bitcoin matter and he also looks further into his own income and psychological matters including considering where he is at with his 9 individual factors.

He does not need to resolve or figure out any of his 9 individual factors when he starts out investing in bitcoin, even though it likely remains a good thing that he considers that getting clarity on his 9 individual factors are areas that would be helpful in increasing his comfort level and perhaps even his investment level.

So maybe he starts with $30 per week, and then after a few weeks he starts putting $30 per week into bitcoin and $20 per week into bolstering his back up funds (maybe his back up funds had been around $750, and his monthly expenses are around $1k - so he ONLY has around 75% of a month of his expenses and he realizes his goal would be to get to 3 month of his expenses in cash - or back up funds). 

So then after around 6 weeks he increases, his BTC contribution to $50 per week and his back up funds to $30 per week.
Then after around 10 weeks he increases, his BTC contribution to $60 per week and his back up funds to $35 per week.
Then after around 16 weeks he increases, his BTC contribution to $90 per week and his back up funds to $50 per week.
Then after around 26 weeks he increases, his BTC contribution to $120 per week and his back up funds to $75 per week.

Then maybe he realizes that he has some other investments, and he considers if he might reallocate some of the value of some of those other investments into bitcoin.

Maybe after around a year and a half, his back up funds have reached around 4 months of his expenses, so he discontinues adding to his back up funds and he starts to only put money into bitcoin, around $150 per week.

The process of investment and cashflow management can be learned and the balances in regards to each can be adjusted along the way, too. Experience is one of the best of teachers, and delays in getting started are frequently unnecessary and the lack of comfort can be adjusted by position size as long as the investment is coming within discretionary funds and the person is trying to apply common sense.. including that if he knows that he does not know math very well (his math skills are bad) then he likely has to spend time improving those skills, but he does not need to NOT invest into bitcoin as long as he has enough skills to figure out the extent to which he has discretionary funds or not... and to  only invest into bitcoin within the scope of his discretionary funds.


You seem to be suggesting that there may still be possibilities to put money into bitcoin even if a person does not have discretionary funds, and to me, that sounds like trading and/or gambling rather than investing, including that we should be striving to get to a point that we are putting money into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer.. and surely 10 years or longer unless we have age and/or health considerations that might cause our investing for less than 10 years and perhaps as low as 4 years.

Sure it is understandable that brand new people into bitcoin might feel that they are not able to commit for even 4 years, so brand new folks to bitcoin might come to bitcoin with ideas of getting in and out of bitcoin in less than 4 years, yet that is a trading mentality and the carrying out of trading activities, which we are not talking about in this thread.

Even though you are mentioning various ways that guys might get income, you seem to be referring to shitcoining and/or trading, which are also not topics of this thread... even though I suppose if we have various sources of income and they add up to giving up discretionary funds that we can invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer then it might not really matter so much from where we got the funds - even though surely it is understandable that there are many guys who may well be struggling quite a bit in terms of being able to ongoingly generate income, and many of us likely realize that it is one thing to get started investing in bitcoin, and it is another thing to be able to continue to invest in bitcoin and/or to hold onto our bitcoin investment after we got started - which means a need for ongoing income to pay for our expenses so that we don't end up having to tap into our bitcoin at a time that is not completely at our own choosing.

It's just a raffle tool, so I don't see any competition.

I just took some time to code it into the website, I was already running my own raffles since 2022 with my own forum bot: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5405086.msg60504842#msg60504842

The BitList raffle manager allows as many competitors and winners as you want.

If you were to compare the Bitcoin Block Raffle tool to bitmover Bitcointalk Giveaway Manager, is there a difference between the two? Is there something that people can do with yours that's not possible with bitmover's and vice versa? bitmover's tool also uses bitcoin block hashes and has a share button for the results. It supports up to 30 winners. How many does your raffle tool support?

CCE.Cash is a Fast Automatic Exchange accepting .Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, XMR, TRX, USDT., etc. Users can quickly and anonymously complete currency exchange without registering. Its core features are: automation, simplicity, and security. A simple 2-step guide will help you quickly get familiar with the functionality.

• Rules/Prizes:

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ The winner will receive a prize of $30 in BTC 🎁
➥ You can choose 2 SLOTS if you posted comments in the ANN topic before the raffle announcement draw in the last 2 weeks.
➥ After selecting a block, we will use the Bitmover tool to determine the winner.

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• Application:

🎉 Hello, everyone! An exciting new raffle is here, and we’re happy to invite you to join!

✅ AML Bot [FREE RAFFLE] 🎯 100 free AML checks 🔍

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ The winner will receive a package including 100 free AML checks ^{[https://t.me/btc_aml_bot]} 🎁
➥ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool for a fair and transparent draw!



Good luck to all participants!

@btc_aml_bot — is a simple and convenient AML checker for Bitcoin transactions. Don't risk sending coins to exchanges or other services if you're unsure of their origin, otherwise you could lose everything. Comprehensive reports, fast, secure, and reasonably priced. Your first scan is FREE!

• Rules:

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ The winner will receive a package including 100 free AML checks ^{[https://t.me/btc_aml_bot]} 🎁
➥ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool for a fair and transparent draw!

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• Application:

Bitlist.co now has a giveaway manager tool, but I have not tried to simulate in the giveaway manager on Bitlist.co because the mempool cannot be accessed, so I cannot use this tool, as well as your tool bitcoindata.

https://bitlist.co/raffle-manager

My IP is blocking me from accessing the mempool.
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This is what it looks like.

Of course, OgNasty is bitter because he was on the wrong side of that difference of opinion about bitcoin and he likely would not even admit how much he was set back by betting against bitcoin and siding with various BIG blocker camps.. so too bad and so sad, and it would not be so exciting to make fun of OgNasty if he weren't otherwise a know it all cunt who can never be wrong, yet easy enough to point out some history in which he had become greatly bitter about his having had been wrong, played his cards wrong and still bitter over it.

OgNasty did mention to me in a private communication that his goals are real high, which perhaps it part of the problem...

Guys who started out in bitcoin around the time that OgNasty started could have had fairly easily gotten in the several hundred coins territories, even with little capital originally invested, and merely ONLY having to error on the side of holding rather than fucking around with trading or trading his bitcoin for Bcash.

I am largely saying that he could have had accumulated 100s of coins because he says that he has high goals. He laughed at me when I pointed out to him that many normies would be quite content with a passive income of $80k per year, and sure, if you want to double, triple or quadruple that, that does not seem to be unreasonable, especially since I am of  the opinion that currently an $80k per year income with 7% raises each year could be supported by currently having 13.7992 BTC or more, and so yeah, if an early guy were to have had been able to accumulate 138 BTC, then he could currently be in a position to sustainably support an $800k per year income with 7% per year increases... and I have difficulties wondering how that would not be enough.. but hey, some guys want more and more and more. Some guys seems to never be able of getting enough.  At least that is what some guys say.

Going back to 2011.  In mid-2011 there was a rapid shooting of BTC's price up from $1 to $32, yet most of 2011 and 2012 and even going into 2013 BTC prices spent a lot of that time between $4 and $15.. so even picking somewhere in the middle of that price range, OgNasty could have gotten 100 BTC for every $1k that he put into it - which was about 25x better prices than the doldrums of 2015 that were mostly stuck in the $250 prices.. and so in 2015, you would have ONLY gotten around 40 bitcoin for every $10k invested into it... still not a bad deal, but surely with the passage of time, the average prices tended to go up quite a bit, even during the dipping periods as compared with the  earlier periods..  

Even though you have the right ideas, Loyang, your ways of expressing your ideas are confusing.

If we are new to bitcoin, we might hardly know anything about bitcoin, and sure it may well be a good idea to learn more about bitcoin, yet you do not need to know a lot about bitcoin in order to get started investing.

The main thing that you need to know to get started is whether you have discretionary funds, and if you have discretionary funds, then you can get started investing into bitcoin.

So whether you start out into bitcoin with $100 or $10 or some other amount, you can adjust your amount based on your knowledge and your comfort, and so I would imagine that if you are investing $100 per week, after several months and/or even after a year or two, you would be inspired to learn more about bitcoin based on the size of your investment getting larger and larger and  larger.

Sure, your opinions and knowledge about investing into bitcoin as compared with investing somewhere else is one of the 9 individual factors that you should be considering, yet it seems the more important things relate to determining if you have discretionary funds and then learning various other parts of your 9 factors as you go, and your views on bitcoin is one of the things that could take years and years and years to really become more and more comfortable with what it is and its investment thesis...

The better you feel about the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis, then the more you might be justified to invest at higher levels into bitcoin, and so sure maybe you would not want to put 10% of your annual income into it or even 100% or more of your annual income into it for people who have lump sum amounts available to them) without greater levels of due diligence and investigations.

Yet to get started, you don't have to do extensive studies, and most likely common sense would help to inform you that starting out conservatively would make sense until your comfort level became stronger.


Do you believe that a guys aim is to get their bitcoin investment portfolio up to a certain dollar value number, so then once you get it up to that certain value number, the what do you plan to do at that time?  Sell it or something else?

You are correct that putting in $1k and then expecting the $1k to turn into $50k, that does seem to be a bit unrealistic as a short term plan, yet I suppose a person who figures out that he can invest $1k every 10 weeks ($100 per week) or even $1k every year ($20 per week), then he would have a longer period of building up his BTC holdings.

So a guy can consider his bitcoin holdings in terms of both how much value he had put into it over time, and also how much the bitcoin is worth in terms of spot price or in terms of its 200-WMA valuation.

I become a bit skeptical of guys who are just proclaiming some dollar value that they are wanting their bitcoin to get to, since that sound more like a trader mentality rather than an investor mentality, and I am wanting to focus more on investing in this thread rather than trading, even though some of my own portfolio management practices that involve price based sustainable withdrawal do have some seemingly trading feelings to them, even though I like to consider them as downside insurance rather than attempts to make profits, since I am thinking of maintaining bitcoin quantity and even dollar value - at least until entering into time based sustainable withdrawal.

I am not opposed to having various targets that might relate to dollar value, bitcoin quantity, 200-WMA valuation or some other ways of figuring out value and perhaps helping to provide tools that would allow figuring out various points in which transition in the investment strategy and/or management of the bitcoin holdings might take place based on reaching certain milestones that likely would even change over time, too.. since they might need to be adjusted based on changes in income or changes in cost of living or even perceived changes in the strength (or weakness) of bitcoin's investment thesis.


Yep.  You are correct, frequently various price versus 200-WMA answers can be found for any date or even sometimes when we are trying to figure out what was going on within a past time period, then we can zoom in on the price on certain dates, and so you have made several of the features to be very helpful to make current analysis and to compare to historical periods.. at least with questions related to how the BTC price related to the 200-WMA and even how a sustainable withdrawal might have worked out if we had reached a certain quantity of BTC on a certain date... so a lot of that can be quite helpful in trying to determine how we might want to try to make our BTC last - but we still are likely advantaged by spending some time playing with the tool to hopefully put ourselves into a better position to figure out how much we can get out of our holdings and even if we might want to apply more conservative withdrawal rates or perhaps more aggressive withdrawal rates. .which can be done through the withdrawal rate percentage.


You are kind of contradicting yourself alankasman since you said that investing is for anyone with discretionary funds, but then in the end you say that it is only possible with strong capital.

Yes, we can agree that anyone can invest as long as they have discretionary funds, yet if they are going to sustain their investment over 4-10 years or longer, they have to continue to have discretionary funds that are sufficient to pay for their expenses so that they don't have to tap into their investment, and even better if they can continue to add to their investment.

So there are levels, and surely a person's discretionary funds situation can be improved by increasing income, cutting expenses and perhaps even managing funds well so that he might not need to (or be tempted to) tap into his bitcoin at a time that is not of his choosing or due to poor cash flow managing systems/practices.

Not that impossible and that's more generous compared to the other requirement from the other casinos that has got more than 30x in a wagering requirement. But this is going to take time if he's going to spend the giveaway money that they've won. And just take it as a quest so that it won't be filling their heads of what they're trying to fulfill as if it's a game that they have to finish.

Yes, I forgot to mention that both the key that generates the codes every 30s and the hexadecimal backup of the key were in the same database. 

Excellent idea bitmover. I have a two phones and a tablet that i'm using less and less, but I still use them.. they could very well be configured to serve as a second device to generate 2FA codes.

When you need to migrate your 2FA backup keys to another App (which is what I did: google auth, iCloud Passwords > Keepass and similar), you'll see how painful it is, unless you have a few accounts with 2FA configured that can be migrated in minutes, or you unlink 2FA from your accounts one by one and then configure it with a new 2FA key. Neither google auth nor icloud Passwords allow this instant migration (unless it's between devices of the same brand or app). But I don't like the idea of being stuck with these apps.

Many people don't know this, but the Keepass password manager can also set up 2FA keys and generate codes every 30s.

You likely realize that I had been largely ball-parking ideas about what might be tolerated thresholds, which also likely relates back to guys who are using the tool in an attempt for sustainable withdrawal, then they may well be wanting to attempt to make sure that they get their money to go as far as they can get it to go... especially if they happen to be down to ONLY having bitcoin and cash in terms of their total investment portfolio (or their income sources for guys who had almost completely stopped working and receiving income from work).

So yeah, right now, the spot price is in the 33% to 66% above the 200-WMA range.. which it seems to be better to withdraw 2 months (1 month current and an additional month) rather than taking reduced withdrawals if the BTC price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA or even if it gets to the 200-WMA or lower, then it seems more of a time for buying rather than selling, even though if a person is already in their sustainable withdrawal phase, they might not have any other income sources, and they  might not have had withdrawn some months in advance during the times that the BTC price was substantially higher than the 200-WMA.. .. I cannot recall whether in this cycle if we had some temporary times in the 200% to 400% higher than the 200-WMA which would have had allowed withdrawing 11 months in advance, even though we did have a lot of times that the BTC price was in the 100% to 200% above the 200-WMA, which would have had allowed withdrawing 5 months in advance. 

My overall conclusion is that most people do not have any meaningful investments, and sure they might end up buying their house, and in the west, they might have some retirement program through their employment.. yet most people do not have investments beyond those two.

Accordingly, Let's stick with the example of a certain number of guys who might come to bitcoin and they have already built up various investment assets, and so when they come to bitcoin they could be faced with either keeping those other investments (and even continuing to contribute to them) or they could slowly or even rapidly divest from those assets.

So, if the guys are coming to bitcoin with an intention of increasing their exposure to bitcoin they have a variety of options, yet in their initial stages of coming to bitcoin they might be reluctant to sell other investments and to put that value into bitcoin rather than potentially working towards getting their allocation of bitcoin up to a point that they might want to get it, whether they want to get to somewhere between 5% to 25% of their quasi-liquid allocation into bitcoin or if they might have some other target number.

Let's go back to the example of a guy in his mid-30s who comes to bitcoin and he has a $30k income, and who had been investing $100 per week for the past 10 years.  In this example the guy had already been investing right around 15% of his income.  So right now if his non-bitcoin investment portfolio is $45k, then maybe if he wants his bitcoin holdings to get to be 15% of his already existing $45k portfolio, then that would be a target of $6.75k based on current valuations.  Maybe he could just divert all of his investing into bitcoin and discontinue investing into his non-bitcoin holdings until maybe after he reaches his 15% goal. If the guy invests at $100 per week, it would take him 67.5 weeks to reach $6.75k invested into bitcoin.  He could have reasons for keeping his other investments.. Maybe they have tax deferral status or they have employer matching contributions, yet if he considers going beyond his earlier investment budget of $100 per week (or 15%) he might put unwanted stress on his cashflows.. and surely these are choices that guys may end up making if they see that they have options.  And, their choices might relate to other aspects of their lives.  This guy might have had already been considering that he might have to continue to work until he is in his 60s (another 25 years), yet he might also consider that with bitcoin investing possibilities that maybe he could cut down his timeline to keep working to merely another 15 years or so.


To me it seems that guys would be starting price based sustainable withdrawal once they reach a large enough stash of bitcoin, and if you are investing in bitcoin sporadically, I have troubles thinking how you might be able to reach that in less than 10 years.

And, it does not matter so much about whether you are able to invest $100, $10 or some other level per week, yet you can still measure to see how much of your income you are putting into bitcoin, so if you end up putting 10% into bitcoin it is going to take nearly 10 years to get to 1 years income put into bitcoin.  On the other hand if you were to figure out how to put 25% into bitcoin, then after 4 years you would have had put 1 whole year of your income into bitcoin.  Surely 10% is much more practical and doable as compared with 25%, yet some guys may well be investing way less than 10% yet expecting results as if they had been investing 25%.  So, even though bitcoin remains a great investment, there are needs for guys to be realistic in regards to how much they are putting in relative to their income (and their expected standards of living), and even if bitcoin might appreciate well, a guy who put more than his annual income over several years would end up doing way better than a guy who might have put in only a few months of his annual income into his bitcoin investment.

We have to attempt to be realistic about both the amount we are putting in and our BTC performance expectations.. which also can be addressed by doing our own calculations and making sure that our calculations are based on the realities of what we are putting in rather than fantasies.. that also include problems if we are withdrawing at various points along the way.. and we end up fucking up our building of our bitcoin stash and also fucking up the way that the investment might have tendencies to compound upon itself, especially after a couple of cycles or more.


I am starting from the premise of a guy who had already reached overaccumulation status.  So, he likely would have a cushion between how much bitcoin he holds and how much he is selling, so the reductions in the amounts are meant to account for an ability to be sustained.. but yeah, a guy who is worried about his withdrawal no longer being sustainable or that his withdrawals or overly depleting his holdings, then he might choose to withdraw at an even lower rate or to discontinue withdrawals during those kinds of times.

Part of the problem of reducing withdrawals is that there is an assumption that the guy is no longer working, so he may have already become reliant on his bitcoin as a regular income source to the extent that he does not have other income sources.

Let's take the example of the guy with a $30k income and he had been accumulating bitcoin at $100 per week for 10 years (right around 17% of his income) from January 2016 to present.  He had invested $53k over those 10 years and he had accumulated 15.3 BTC.  His target was to be able to quit his job once he would be able to sustain an income of $80k per year off of his income, and he looks at the chart, and he sees right now, 13.8102 would be enough to sustain an income of $80k per year... and so he has nearly 1.5 BTC  extra.  He could start right now with the extra BTC or he could withdraw at a reduced rate.  He could wait a few months an then the same quantity of BTC would support a higher withdrawal amount in terms of dollars.

The punchline still relates to guys having to do their own calculations to make sure that they are comfortable and that they are not withdrawing in such a way that their withdrawal rate is not sustainable... so yeah, guys should not be overly withdrawing from their stash to knock themselves out of overaccumulation status, and personally, I think that bitcoin allows for quite aggressive withdrawal rates, yet guys have to still make sure that they don't fuck it up buy overly withdrawing, so they may well feel better withdrawing at a lower rate or even discontinuing withdrawals for a period of time until they feel that their chosen withdrawal rate is sustainable.

Below is a description of the reductions of the withdrawal rate (from the sustainable withdrawal website), yet guys are responsible for their own ways of dealing with the matter of finding what  they consider to be sustainable withdrawal in terms of if they agree with my numbers or if they believe other numbers would work better for them:

>>>>>>>>>When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget.<<<<<<<<<


Yes... We are getting a bit ahead of ourselves, even though it does not hurt to look ahead, there still tends to be a need to build up the bitcoin holdings first before those kinds of sustainable withdrawal matters would start to become applicable... and it is likely better to be dealing with your actual numbers of where you are at rather than where you might be, unless you happen to be getting close to your numbers, then at least it is more realistic that you are close to getting there.

Even though I have not updated my fuck you status chart recently, it seems relevant to show that lower and lower amounts of BTC is required to support certain dollar income levels.

I personally anticipate that there are decently good probabilities that in 10 years, less than 1 BTC stash would support an $80k per year job and the ability to give 7% per year raises in the dollar level... and sure of course, also we have to consider the role of ongoing dollar debasement in our calculations, too.


Its optional how to choose withdrawal, and my tool even suggests ways to withdraw in advance based on BTC prices going higher than the 200 WMA.

>>>>>>•Advanced Withdrawal (No. Months)

This output is calculated based on if the BTC spot price is higher than the 200 WMA. Accordingly:

A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months.<<<<<<<

But, yeah it is quite possible that BTC is not going to be reaching thos high numbers anymore... so adjustments could be made to the advance withdrawal ideas.
 

It is good to have some ideas regarding where you want to go, yet you still have to take concrete actions to get there (or work towards getting there).. and yeah, some of the numbers might change along the way.. regarding how many bitcoin you need and/or how many you had accumulated and even ups and downs of your own finances and/or your abilities to stay focused on your goals.. since it still seems to me that you have inclinations to sell or to try to trade rather than staying focused on ongoing accumulation through buying.. but yeah, the more you practice, then hopefully you find ways to make your bitcoin accumulation work for you so that you are ongoingly building your stash.


It seems to me that right now to be able to sustainably withdraw $2k per month, then you would need to have at least 4.15 bitcoin, so perhaps in 10 years you would need less than 1 BTC.. Maybe even in the ballpark of less than 0.5 BTC... yet it can be difficult to project that far ahead with precision, which I think is part of the reason that guys tend to want to shoot to accumulate more than they believe that they are going to need so that they might have a bit of a cushion when it comes time to start to enter into something like sustainable withdrawal.

LoyceV summed it up well.

As far as I know, the deadline for applications was 31/01/2026, but considering that it is only the first round and it is necessary to give the first prediction by February 4th, maybe the manager will accept your late application

With investment, you need time for accumulation and get profit but time is not several weeks or months but should be in years. Targeting at profit within several weeks or months is not easy, and it's in fact very risky for your portfolio especially if you have bad financial management.

This hold camp map shows the safe holding time for your bitcoin portfolio, to avoid loss and after that you can get profit.
https://hodl.camp/

Build up your portfolio, your finance too and follow this strategy for your Investment portfolio withdrawal.
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

With the multi-device 2FA strategy, it's really important for security. iCloud does make transfers easier, but it's worth noting that it only works within the Apple ecosystem. If you ever want to switch to Android, the migration process becomes more complicated. It might be better to use like google auth, which now supports cloud sync via google account and works on both iOS and Android. More flexible in the long term.

Many complain about using the (i)cloud service as a backup, but I cannot express my gratitude enough for how much it simplified and facilitated the transfer to other devices. Most apps and accounts are migrated very easily, including the authenticator.
Now I currently have the option of three different devices 

@bitmover
I may have suggested this to you before, although I don't think I did, so here it is.

What do you think about a tool that would facilitate all prediction contests? As we can now add the current price of Bitcoin to the post, through your API, maybe you can add a new feature that will enable printing the price for the exact time. So, for example, a contest for predicting the price on March 1, +1 UTC, where your API would print the remaining counter until that moment, after that, there would always be a print that was accurate at that moment.

Check this, Halab has launched an interesting battle royale for a BTC price prediction game sponsored by Bridgoro (I'm surprised not to see you there).
For example, he scheduled a first prediction round, but due to the specificity of the contest, the exact time may be very important. Some members have already started a discussion about which time zone to use.
Automation would help a lot and make the contest more transparent. At the same time, if you know, similar prediction contests are often started, so such a tool could be useful
I hope I have at least roughly explained the idea.

I have approved your account. You can now login and get the ad codes.

Let me know if you need any help.
Thanks for the early help.

---

can you post a screenshot of the stats?

I'm thinking one is a total of all impressions and the other is impressions in a certain timeframe.

I will look into this today. 

DT Member - Februari 2026
DT1 Member periode kali ini berjumlah 113 user

Daftar lama: Code: theymos OgNasty Vod vapourminer philipma1957 babo Cyrus ibminer d5000 joker_josue Mitchell vizique albon wwzsocki Timelord2067 jeremypwr gbianchi EFS dbshck hybridsole stompix hilariousandco arulbero buckrogers Buchi-88 JayJuanGee NeuroticFish achow101 DaveF examplens nutildah minerjones irfan_pak10 yahoo62278 bitbollo zazarb pooya87 LFC_Bitcoin o_solo_miner Real-Duke klarki The Sceptical Chymist SFR10 TryNinja holydarkness Lafu polymerbit tweetious giammangiato buwaytress crwth Ale88 Kryptowerk julerz12 Vispilio hosemary krogothmanhattan JollyGood RaltcoinsB igebotz CryptopreneurBrainboss hugeblack El duderino_ KTChampions Trofo sheenshane 3meek Bitcoin_Arena GazetaBitcoin TheBeardedBaby tvplus006 mole0815 bitmover DdmrDdmr anonymousminer Lakai01 Husna QA fillippone cryptofrka abhiseshakana The Cryptovator DireWolfM14 notblox1 Little Mouse YOSHIE inspace jokers10 Awaklara geophphreigh zasad@ Rikafip Etranger NotATether Stalker22 BlackHatCoiner Lillominato89 YodasRedRocket PowerGlove God Of Thunder apogio

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Daftar Baru: Code: HostFat gmaxwell OgNasty Vod vapourminer mprep Foxpup philipma1957 Cyrus Welsh ibminer d5000 joker_josue Mitchell albon wwzsocki Timelord2067 jeremypwr gbianchi EFS hybridsole stompix hilariousandco arulbero buckrogers Buchi-88 willi9974 NeuroticFish achow101 examplens nutildah minerjones irfan_pak10 yahoo62278 bitbollo pooya87 LFC_Bitcoin mocacinno Real-Duke klarki LoyceV The Sceptical Chymist SFR10 TryNinja holydarkness Lafu polymerbit AakZaki giammangiato buwaytress crwth Kryptowerk Vispilio hosemary krogothmanhattan RaltcoinsB igebotz El duderino_ KTChampions Trofo icopress JeromeTash logfiles Bitcoin_Arena GazetaBitcoin tvplus006 mole0815 DdmrDdmr shahzadafzal anonymousminer Lakai01 Husna QA Bthd fillippone cryptofrka abhiseshakana The Cryptovator lovesmayfamilis DireWolfM14 notblox1 Little Mouse YOSHIE inspace jokers10 Awaklara efialtis geophphreigh zasad@ Rikafip Etranger NotATether Stalker22 bullrun2024bro Charles-Tim Lillominato89 Free Market Capitalist YodasRedRocket PowerGlove God Of Thunder apogio

Sumber: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg66361122#msg66361122

Theymos reshuffled DT1.

Removed:
     1. Administrator theymos (Trust: +30 / =0 / -0) (13959 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. Legendary babo (Trust: +7 / =1 / -0) (4517 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. Legendary vizique (Trust: +35 / =0 / -0) (648 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. Staff dbshck (Trust: +8 / =0 / -0) (625 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. Legendary JayJuanGee (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (12908 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. Legendary DaveF (Trust: +32 / =2 / -0) (6592 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. Legendary zazarb (Trust: +20 / =0 / -0) (548 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. Legendary o_solo_miner (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (526 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. Sr. Member tweetious (Trust: +27 / =0 / -0) (447 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. Legendary Ale88 (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (3346 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. Legendary julerz12 (Trust: +14 / =6 / -0) (1127 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. Legendary JollyGood (Trust: +20 / =2 / -0) (1831 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. Legendary CryptopreneurBrainboss (Trust: +18 / =0 / -0) (5132 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    14. Legendary hugeblack (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (4372 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    15. Legendary sheenshane (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (1170 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    16. Hero Member 3meek (Trust: neutral) (610 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    17. Legendary TheBeardedBaby (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (3336 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    18. Legendary bitmover (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (7263 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    19. Legendary BlackHatCoiner (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (9304 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)

Added:
     1. Staff HostFat (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (301 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. Staff gmaxwell (Trust: +13 / =0 / -1) (9361 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. Global Moderator mprep (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (1729 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. Legendary Foxpup (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (2675 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. Staff Welsh (Trust: +3 / =1 / -0) (3350 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. Legendary willi9974 (Trust: +48 / =0 / -0) (2765 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. Legendary mocacinno (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (4516 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. Legendary LoyceV (Trust: +33 / =2 / -0) (20037 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. Legendary AakZaki (Trust: +7 / =2 / -0) (1398 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. Legendary icopress (Trust: +78 / =0 / -0) (11553 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. Legendary JeromeTash (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (1347 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. Copper Member logfiles (Trust: +5 / =1 / -0) (2216 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. Copper Member shahzadafzal (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (3192 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    14. Legendary Bthd (Trust: +2 / =1 / -0) (2603 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    15. Legendary lovesmayfamilis (Trust: +30 / =2 / -0) (5369 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    16. Legendary efialtis (Trust: +25 / =0 / -0) (1551 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    17. Legendary bullrun2024bro (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (5120 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    18. Legendary Charles-Tim (Trust: +7 / =1 / -0) (6172 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    19. Legendary Free Market Capitalist (Trust: +1 / =1 / -0) (3133 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)

A big thanks to everyone who participated in this contest/raffle!

Without you and your support, Physical Crypto creators wouldn’t have this honor.

Congrats to Polymerbit on all your success! Your art serves as an inspiration to many!

Now, here are the results for the raffle! Block #934651

Winner! 23 Gazeta, Congratulations and God Bless! 🎉⚡️



Howard will take it from here. 🤍

This month 113 users were eligible.

Old:
New:

O que parte do povo brasileiro estava pensando na hora de eleger um pinguço corrupto com escândalos de corrupção nas costas... uma suíça? É o que eu falo, quem votou nesse jagunço tem culpa também, não falo pelos ignorantes que votou nele, desse pessoal eu tenho mais é pena, pois a lavagem cerebral é muito grande, principalmente em áreas remotas do país que não tem nem saneamento básico, quiça internet... mas boa parte da elite aristocrata e estudantes universitários que acham que entendem o mundo, são um bando de socialistas.

E eu não acho que o lula vai se reeleger, as rejeições estão subindo a cada pesquisa e o 01 só ganhando espaço, crescendo em cada pesquisa, eu ainda tenho esperanças, pois o Trump está pressionando o Lula para ter eleições justas (ou a magnitsky e sanções inesperadas voltam). Tem entrevistas do lula mostrando apavoro e desespero de perder as eleições.

I did not know that we were having a "who's more bullish?" contest.

Interesting.

Part of my ongoing criticism of you relates to how smart that you are trying to act in your various spins of what you are supposedly doing, yet part of your underlying likely loss comes from your failure to stack and some of your earlier sales in which you were not able to get back your stack (such as 2017) yet you want to act like you are smarter than everyone else.. and a bit of humility would likely be a good thing - but you would rather brag and compete in regards to details that we could not confirm anyhow.

So yeah I recognize that you consider yourself to still be in your BTC accumulation phase, and whether that is due to your not having enough BTC or your setting your goals too high, I am not sure. You seem to subscribe to a school of thought that contributes to a mentality that you can never have enough, which I consider that to be problematic since I think that guys can get to a stage of having enough or more than enough BTC.

You seem to be describing my goals as if I were the same as you in terms of having goals to continue to accumulate bitcoin, which I am no longer in that stage of my bitcoin investment journey, even though from time to time, I might buy some extra BTC from funds that are not already in my bitcoin funds.

I have largely been following price-based sustainable withdrawal since 2015 - which does tend to result in buying back.

Time-based sustainable withdrawal does not tend to have buying back within its parameters, and I had set up a couple of my accounts to start following that since 2022, and those accounts had been selling way below the authorized amounts, so largely between 3% to 6% per year based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA - even though my theory is that 10% withdrawal per year based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA would be tolerable. Even within the first two accounts that were authorized to be able to sell, some of them pay in BTC or even transfer to other accounts (that are not under my control) that hold the value in BTC, so there seems to be a bit of refusal to sell the BTC, even though surely some of the authorized bitcoin is being sold (converted into dollars).

In recent times, I had authorized the ability of a couple more accounts to withdraw within the time-based sustainable withdrawal systems at about a 4% per year rate (for testing purposes)- yet those additional accounts had either refused to sell any BTC or sold BTC in fairly sporadic ways that ended up falling way below their 4% per year authorized rates.

You can see various aspects of my discussion of price-based and time-based sustainable withdrawal in my sustainable withdrawal thread, and surely my ideas of sustainable withdrawal for either of the systems (price-based and/or time-based) tend to authorized BTC sales in ways that create expectations of not being able to buy back the BTC that had been sold, even though since BTC is quite so crazily volatile, quite a few buy backs end up happening, yet the buy backs (to the extent that they happen) are largely ONLY within about 5% of the sales price, so they end up serving more like maintenance and/or downside insurance rather than any meaningful attempt to grown the size of the bitcoin holdings.. so there isn't really any goal to accumulate bitcoin in any substantive and/or meaningful way with even the price-based sustainable withdrawal system. 

Part of the reason that there is not much if any mission to attempt to accumulate more bitcoin is because I had already reached a conclusion somewhere between 2015 and 2017 that I had already reached over accumulation status - and surely my definitions of overaccumulation status have changed since then, even though there ends up being ingrained abilities to sell within the overaccumulated amounts without any necessity to accumulate more bitcoin.

Frequently I like to use the idea of an $80k income in order to attempt to explain, from my perspective, how overaccumulation status works.  We don't even have to go back more than 10 years.  Let's say that 10 years ago, a guy was in his mid 30s, and he had an income of around $40k, and he told himself that he was going to accumulate bitcoin until his bitcoin could support him with a income of $80k per year (largely double his income and I am keeping the numbers flat for ease of calculation).   So let's say that the guy started to DCA into bitcoin at $150 per week (19.5% of his income - sure a pretty aggressively high rate) since January 1, 2016, and so by now, he would have had invested nearly $80k into bitcoin, and he would have had accumulated 22.9 BTC.

Also if he looks up how many BTC he needs to have right now in order to sustain an income of $80k per year (with 7% increases each year), he sees that it would be a minimum of 13.8153 BTC, so he realizes that for some reason he had ended up accumulating right around 9.1 BTC more than he needs in order to meet his threshold standard of starting to withdraw bitcoin forever and ever and ever at the dollar rate of $80k per year and with a 7% raise each year.  He is largely within overaccumulation status with those extra 9.1 BTC...and he has a lot of freedom in regards to how to utilize that extra 9.1 BTC or merely to just keep  that extra 9.1 BTC as a kind of cushion.

The guy can employ time based sustainable withdrawal and/or price based sustainable withdrawal, and as long as he is staying within overaccumulation status (which should be easy with an extra 9.1BTC) then he does not need to worry about buying back any BTC, including that he can monitor the extent to which the quantity of his BTC cushion is shrinking or getting larger in order to see if he needs to take any actions to either decrease or increase his withdrawal rate.. .whether he withdraws monthly, quarterly, annually or on some other frequency.


Of course they do.

How you invest, allocate and/or change your allocations is a package (and/or a way of life), which is part of my point. 

If you made a gamble and your gamble paid off, sure you feel good about the bets that you made and that they had ended up paying off, but it might not have had been a good practice to be gambling rather than investing - especially with something like bitcoin..

For sure, we likely try to figure out and follow good ways of accumulating BTC, goods way of maintaining our BTC stashes if we might have had gotten to a quantity of BTC that we would like to maintain.... or even a good way of entering into sustainable withdrawal, if we might conclude that we have enough BTC or more than enough BTC to sustain our withdrawal rate at a level that we would like to deploy


Go figure!!!!!!

I was just talking about you in recent times... hahahahahaha


You are always ready for more dip.

That's how you roll.

 


We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

You can sign up as a publisher and you will be paid for the real impressions your ad code creates.

Currently we are paying 1 satoshi for every 100 impressions.

Bitcoin foi feito para não ficarmos a mercê dessas regras estatais inúteis, ele é uma ferramenta anti-censura de movimentações financeiras vai software com tecnologia P2P.

Holding your bitcoin a longer time, especially in cycles will help you getting more profit but if you feel like you need money or need to take profit for feeling and enjoying your succcess from investment, you can do it. Just don't sell all bitcoin you have as it can make you regret later. You can sell some part of your bitcoin portfolio like 20% of it, not more.

You can learn from the withdrawal strategy of Jay Juan Gee too.
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

You are onto something but then again your line of reasoning here is not very strong. You can pick up any alternative emotion that you proposed instead, but if you combine it with helplessness it becomes useless. Here we are talking about pure anger, rage that is directed and objective base -- there is no helplessness. Those that add helplessness to their anger, of frustration or whatever are part of a different group.

Sweet irony, I guess folks consider divorce part of good karma too these days.  

You kind of contradicted yourself with the example. You can't talk about the widespread availability of money making opportunities and then bring in a niche market as an example, it is by definition limited and not that many people can make serious money off of it. You can see something similar with freelancing websites which were a huge money making opportunity until they got flooded with 3rd world incompetent idiots that do low quality work for low pay, and AI work. Now they are very crowded and it is much harder to build a repertoire of clients for those that try this thing. New opportunities always exist, they are a sign of changing times -- but that does not mean that the situation is good. Overall, the economic situation right now is much worse than it has been in a very long time.


Those that are not angry are either depressed or deeply addicted to the system from what I can observe. Basically what they believe to be their own sovereign decision making, is just a coping addiction to distract themselves from the situation. Nobody sane would spend precious lifetime scrolling useless feeds or playing games continuously. I have even read of cases where Gen Z take stimulative drugs to play video games, not competitively nor for money, for longer. They have fallen really far down.

Update:
DT 1
     1. 35: theymos (Trust: +30 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (55) 13943 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. 30747: Vod (Trust: +29 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (5) 2509 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. 33156: vapourminer (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 4624 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. 64507: philipma1957 (Trust: +32 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (16) 10292 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. 65636: babo (Trust: +15 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (5) 4513 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. 78147: Cyrus (Trust: +23 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (19) 2462 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. 84866: ibminer (Trust: +14 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 2512 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. 85033: d5000 (Trust:  neutral) (DT1! (2) 9160 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. 97582: joker_josue (Trust: +8 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (5) 6043 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. 113670: Mitchell (Trust: +48 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (23) 1633 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. 120837: vizique (Trust: +37 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 648 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. 123824: albon (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (9) 1776 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. 131333: wwzsocki (Trust: +14 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1519 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    14. 137185: jeremypwr (Trust: +59 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (16) 6151 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    15. 140582: gbianchi (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 2367 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    16. 140584: EFS (Trust: +10 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1978 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    17. 153634: dbshck (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 625 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    18. 158444: hybridsole (Trust: +19 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 466 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    19. 164749: stompix (Trust:  neutral) (DT1! (10) 6393 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    20. 164822: hilariousandco (Trust: +28 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (32) 1853 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    21. 170072: arulbero (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 1507 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    22. 189967: buckrogers (Trust: +31 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (8) 195 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    23. 204821: Buchi-88 (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 2290 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    24. 252510: JayJuanGee (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (16) 12897 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    25. 257071: NeuroticFish (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 6014 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    26. 290195: achow101 (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (12) 6589 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    27. 300014: DaveF (Trust: +33 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (17) 6572 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    28. 314792: examplens (Trust: +8 / =5 / -0) (DT1! (26) 3339 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    29. 317618: nutildah (Trust: +22 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (27) 9469 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    30. 346731: minerjones (Trust: +141 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (19) 3176 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    31. 350580: irfan_pak10 (Trust: +16 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (2) 702 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    32. 355846: yahoo62278 (Trust: +40 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (22) 4175 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    33. 364070: bitbollo (Trust: +18 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 3553 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    34. 369212: zazarb (Trust: +34 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 548 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    35. 379147: pooya87 (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 11206 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    36. 379487: LFC_Bitcoin (Trust: +30 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (18) 11450 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    37. 395806: o_solo_miner (Trust: +8 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 526 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    38. 405482: Real-Duke (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (1) 2490 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    39. 407174: klarki (Trust: +4 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (3) 4286 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    40. 487418: The Sceptical Chymist (Trust: +33 / =3 / -0) (DT1! (25) 6232 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    41. 521899: SFR10 (Trust: +20 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 2955 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    42. 557798: TryNinja (Trust: +14 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (9) 9161 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    43. 754818: holydarkness (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (13) 1340 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    44. 805820: Lafu (Trust: +17 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (11) 3865 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    45. 811213: polymerbit (Trust: +17 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1006 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    46. 830967: tweetious (Trust: +34 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 447 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    47. 889300: giammangiato (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 1472 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    48. 901859: buwaytress (Trust: +30 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 3600 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    49. 914465: crwth (Trust: +4 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1115 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    50. 932931: Ale88 (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 3335 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    51. 949248: Kryptowerk (Trust: +52 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 1249 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    52. 950662: julerz12 (Trust: +13 / =6 / -0) (DT1! (3) 1111 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    53. 995810: hosemary (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 6572 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    54. 1000199: krogothmanhattan (Trust: +102 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (20) 4090 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    55. 1016855: JollyGood (Trust: +21 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (15) 1829 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    56. 1045971: igebotz (Trust: +17 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (9) 2185 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    57. 1052091: CryptopreneurBrainboss (Trust: +22 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (12) 5131 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    58. 1059082: hugeblack (Trust: +8 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (9) 4365 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    59. 1067333: El duderino_ (Trust: +27 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (10) 15095 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    60. 1097370: KTChampions (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 2173 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    61. 1099980: Trofo (Trust: +29 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 3160 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    62. 1179651: sheenshane (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (2) 1170 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    63. 1269497: Bitcoin_Arena (Trust: +2 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (7) 2001 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    64. 1285797: GazetaBitcoin (Trust: +14 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (17) 9094 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    65. 1291828: TheBeardedBaby (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (15) 3336 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    66. 1311641: tvplus006 (Trust: +13 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (12) 2437 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    67. 1424178: mole0815 (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 3224 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    68. 1554927: bitmover (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 7254 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    69. 1582324: DdmrDdmr (Trust: +10 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (19) 11250 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    70. 1668017: anonymousminer (Trust: +44 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (8) 1382 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    71. 1724800: Lakai01 (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 3781 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    72. 1827294: Husna QA (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 3266 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    73. 1852120: fillippone (Trust: +14 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (22) 19820 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    74. 1862043: cryptofrka (Trust: +17 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 2300 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    75. 1878246: abhiseshakana (Trust: +2 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 2458 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    76. 1980983: The Cryptovator (Trust: +22 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (19) 2464 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    77. 2003859: DireWolfM14 (Trust: +20 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (21) 5295 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    78. 2015418: notblox1 (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1505 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    79. 2344286: Little Mouse (Trust: +42 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (9) 3411 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    80. 2363935: YOSHIE (Trust: +10 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (16) 1887 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    81. 2477002: inspace (Trust: +5 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1116 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    82. 2497429: jokers10 (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 3852 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    83. 2519096: Awaklara (Trust: +2 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (5) 819 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    84. 2652924: geophphreigh (Trust: +33 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1108 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    85. 2654005: zasad@ (Trust: +3 / =3 / -0) (DT1! (8) 5416 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    86. 2658890: Rikafip (Trust: +14 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (22) 7638 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    87. 2709122: Etranger (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (2) 1803 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    88. 2739424: NotATether (Trust: +8 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (9) 9286 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    89. 2739454: Stalker22 (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1539 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    90. 2775483: BlackHatCoiner (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 9296 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    91. 2796662: Lillominato89 (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 1214 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    92. 3442614: YodasRedRocket (Trust: +31 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 644 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    93. 3486361: PowerGlove (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 6750 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    94. 3540187: apogio (Trust: +6 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (3) 2369 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)

DT 2
     1. 3: satoshi (Trust: +46 / =0 / -0) (8288 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. 4: sirius (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (878 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. 203: HostFat (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (300 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. 2252: laanwj (Trust:  neutral) (44 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. 2676: casascius (Trust: +6 / =0 / -1) (191 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. 2759: midnightmagic (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (27 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. 2786: Pieter Wuille (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (198 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. 3318: Luke-Jr (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (196 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. 3420: dooglus (Trust: +12 / =0 / -0) (334 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. 4171: Raize (Trust:  neutral) (24 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. 4528: Matt Corallo (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (15 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. 6347: Maged (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (17 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. 10354: JJG (Trust:  neutral) (10 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)

Weekly update (2026-01-23_Fri_05.18h)


theymos' raw data (format: time    amount    msg    user_from    user_to)
Sample
Full list^* (54 MB) (not limited to 120 days, 2827 Merit transactions added since my previous update).

theymos' data (human readable format, including usernames and post titles)
Sample
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:23:56 AM CET, JayJuanGee (history) sent 1 Merit to Btcdeybodi (history) for Re: Merit &amp; new rank requirements.
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:16:16 AM CET, DireWolfM14 (history) sent 1 Merit to gmaxwell (history) for Block propagation consistency restored.
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:06:41 AM CET, JayJuanGee (history) sent 1 Merit to Son Of Blockchain (SOB) (history) for Re: Bitcoin in the next decade .
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:05:06 AM CET, JayJuanGee (history) sent 1 Merit to Yorubek (history) for Re: Bitcoin in the next decade .
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:04:08 AM CET, JayJuanGee (history) sent 1 Merit to Dogedegen (history) for Re: Bitcoin in the next decade .
.......
.......
.......
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:28:54 PM CET, AdolfinWolf (history) sent 1 Merit to Lutpin (history) for Re: What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:54 PM CET, Dahman El_Harrachi (history) sent 1 Merit to theymos (history) for Re: Forum ranks/positions/badges (What do those shiny coins under my name mean?).
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:22 PM CET, Tyrantt (history) sent 5 Merit to AdolfinWolf (history) for What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:13 PM CET, Last of the V8s (history) sent 2 Merit to Rosewater Foundation (history) for Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:12:21 PM CET, theymos (history) sent 1 Merit to AdolfinWolf (history) for What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
Full list (573 MB)

Usernames to go with theymos' data
Sample
0: deMerit (Bitcoin Forum) (history) earned: 0 Merit.
3: satoshi (history) earned: 8288 Merit.
4: sirius (history) earned: 878 Merit.
10: Xunie (history) earned: 1 Merit.
11: madhatter (history) earned: 5 Merit.
.......
.......
.......
3743344: NKminer66 (history) earned: 1 Merit.
3743503: Mateomateomateo (history) earned: 1 Merit.
3743536: valen_koinly (history) earned: 1 Merit.
3743964: melina710 (history) earned: 3 Merit.
3743974: banktobtc (history) earned: 7 Merit.
Full list^* (10 MB)

Usernames machine readable
Sample
Full list (2 MB)

UserIDs, sent Merit and earned Merit machine readable
Sample
Full list (1 MB)

Total number of users who received 1 or more Merit: 50884
Sample
Full list (5 MB)

Total number of users who gave away 1 or more sMerit: 26519
Sample
Full list (3 MB)

Merit per day of the week
Monday 321488 (14.35%)
Tuesday 319713 (14.27%)
Wednesday 320405 (14.30%)
Thursday 342089 (15.27%)
Friday 339444 (15.15%)
Saturday 296528 (13.24%)
Sunday 299793 (13.38%)
Total: 2239460

---

^* This file will be overwritten by newer versions

Most miners have very well-connected nodes that are geographically diverse. The reason for this is that they want to get started on a new block ASAP after a previous block has been found.

Similarly, many merchants have multiple nodes that are geographically diverse.

In both cases, the node owners try to avoid it being known the entity who is behind the node so to prevent attackers from being able to segment them from the rest of the network.

So spending two conflicting transactions at nearly the same time will not necessarily result in a particular transaction being confirmed. I would speculate that all else being equal, the transaction with the higher fee will be confirmed, and the other discarded in most cases.

Also, any entity accepting 0/unconfirmed transactions is likely to monitor the network for conflicting transactions, and not accept the transaction if a double spend attempt is detected.

In fact, there are many Polymarket users who can earn much more, as I will share that he made $20K per day in prediction betting on Polymarket.

User: https://polymarket.com/@k9Q2mX4L8A7ZP3R
News on Twitter: https://x.com/Shelpid_WI3M/status/2017333191527260493
Sorry not for any promotion, just want your opinion.

Most of what I see on Twitter they can make hundreds of thousands of dollars in 1 month using the bot they created and then shared it on Twitter, being proud they have succeeded in doing so.

The question is about the bot they shared is a bit suspicious.
Do you think this is like an act of fraud where they give the promise of a good win, or is this penggina too adept at guessing bitcoin predictions up and down?

DCA is dollar cost averaging, which largely is an approach to buying that does not bother with the price, as long as there exists a presumption that the price is trending up within the timeline of the investment, so if someone is investing in bitcoin 4-10 years or longer, then there is a bit of a presumption that bitcoin is trending upwards within that timeline - even though for sure there is no real ability to guarantee.. just to presume the odds are decently good.

Many of us know also that bitcoin is a bit of an assymetric bet to the upside so that the most that we are able to lose is 100% as long as we do not leverage, while at the same time there are decent potentials of large upside movements that make up for the possibilities for down and/or flat.
 

It tends to be fairly difficult for normies to be able to predict short term price directions, and more well off folks likely are hedging both directions and there may be some insiders that know how much capital that they might drop in various exchanges simultaneously and also coordinate various news dumps to try to manipulate the price, which may or may not end up working out.

At best we can try to assign some probabilities and also attempt to be prepared for either  price direction, even extremes that might end up playing out.


Even though this thread has buying the dip in it, we are NOT talking about trading here, so sure there can be advantages to being able to execute some buys and to get more BTC for the same amount of dollars.. yet if the investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer, it may not really make a whole hell of a lot of difference, and surely some guys are just able to buy each week and they may or may not be able to time their buys for dips, to the extent that the dips will make much if any material difference if a guy might be buying $100 per week for 52 weeks in a year and 520 weeks over 10 years, so sure several of the bitcoin buys in the earlier years may well could have had resulted in more sats per dollar yet it might not really make a large difference.

There could be some guys who are ONLY investing around 80% of their weekly amounts for regular buys and then save the other 20% for dips, yet it would seem a bit questionable whether those holding back value strategies would have been good ways to do things in the last few months while bitcoin has been largely below $100k since mid November.   

In other words a lot of the buying on the dip money may well could have already been largely used up in the past 3 months.


Of course, you have been registered since November 2015, so maybe you are more interested in dips, since you already bought a lot of bitcoin over the years, yet newer guy in their first year or two, they may well would have ONLY been exposed to prices between $47k and $126k, so in that sense we might now merely be in the middle of their buying range or maybe some of them are in the negative and just keeping on buying.


Each of us is at a different stage in our bitcoin journey, so surely there are folks who are buying no matter what, and there are others watching the price - even though many times it is not good to get preoccupied with short term price moves, and sure there are abilities to see advantages in short term BTC price moves, yet at the same time, if a guy is ongoingly buying on a weekly basis, the over all price is likely going to keep trending upwards, yet guys sometimes get into the mentality that they want to gamble with their bitcoin investment and to wait for prices that might not happen, yet if we are buying every week we might consider those buys to be significant in the beginning, yet if we had already been buying $100 per week for 2 years, then each new $100 invested is only right around 1/100th of the total size of the holdings, so each new purchase does not make a big difference... and if we look at the 200-WMA, we will see that the 4-year average is currently just below $58k, so we are right around $25k above that, which is that we are about 45% above the 4-year average price... which means if a person had been investing in bitcoin at a pretty steady rate for 4 years, his average price would be right around that $58k 200-WMA price.



I am trying to suggest that you engage in practices to control your own chosen exposure level to bitcoin rather than considering bitcoin as some kind of an outside uncontrollable force.

Yeah, we already know that bitcoin's prices are all over the place, and one of the greatest guarantees in bitcoin prices remains its volatility, even though we don't know the direction of the volatility (especially in the short term, and even the long term is not guaranteed.  So, essentially we need to choose our investment level in accordance with our own situation rather than wishing for some kind of a miracle to rescue us from our poverty.

If we put into good investment practices and cashflow management practices, we likely benefit from creating such structure for ourselves, even if we might also have some budget that allows for spontaneity too.



It seems to me that you need to work with what you got, and if you think that there might be some reasonable and/or feasible ways to increase your income and/or cut your expenses, then those can be positive developments.

Of course it may well be way the fuck better if you could get a job with 5x the income that you currently make, yet life does not tend to be so easy,  especially for poor people, so you have to figure out ways to work with what you got and if you can identify some ways to increase your income or to cross train into a new field that pays better, then those would be great things to figure out.. yet surely there are also some folks who might have already got pigeonholed into certian kinds of work or they might have age and/or health issues or even family responsibility issues that limit how much they would be able to cross train into some kind of a higher paid position... which still brings us back to the hard work of figuring out how to work with what you got and potentially getting some advantages from what you got, without  having to resort to trying to rob banks or some other thing that might not be good for your character or for your long term freedom of not getting locked up.



You going to just wish yourself into higher pay?  i doubt that is a very good plan.  Sometimes there is value in doing the hard work, and sometimes you might be able to develop some skills that might be marketable in your own efforts to organize yourself and your finances in better ways.


Of course, reducing expenses is part of the formula and increasing income is another part of the formula.  You do what you can, and surely I agree that it does seem like a good idea and good practices to be striving to protect your bitcoin.. so you might have some bitocin that is hot, some medium and some that are kept in cold storage, and yeah maybe the cold storage would be the part that would be desired to grow the most.. .and so there can sometimes be some challenges in regards to managing coins.. so maybe if a person is ONLY buying $30 per week and then keeping it on an exchange, then maybe every two or three months most if not all of those coins would be moved to a private wallet.. so then maybe after 3 months the amount invested would be around $400, and the current price might be up, down or sideways, but the transaction to send to a private wallet might happen every few months, and there is some comfort in holding coins in private wallets, even though at the same time there is responsibility not to lose them, too so there can be learning about private wallets and also learning about various options to keep back ups of private keys and choices about how to do it and your system might ONLY be shared with a limited number of people who you trust.


Ok.  Fair enough.  You may have had identified my contention with just picking a timeline since there are issues regarding how much bitcoin might cost during the time of investing and also  how much money we can put in, yet surely there might be some people who specifically have timelines that are based on something related to their work, so maybe they receive some benefits in regards to working up to a certain age, and so there might be attempts to work around those kinds of timeline, yet it would not necessarily give the whole answer - unless the person just told himself that "I am going to put as much as I can up until March 15, 2029, and then figure out where to go from there." .. so surely there might be some flexibility and even some ideas in terms of projecting out base case scenarios and  worse case and best case scenarios too.

I just have a bit of a problem to just blanketedly proclaim that everyone is picking a target date, sine that seems too inflexible, and likely does not conform with how people might plan.

There are likely some guys with jobs that are steady and expected to continue to be steady and there are likely other guys who have combinations of steady and unsteady jobs and then there are also likely guys who don't have steady jobs and some of them are really low paid and maybe a few others might have high paying jobs, even though the jobs are not frequent or steady.  So guys might attempt to plan around what they have been doing and expectations of what they might do in the future, and other guys might be hoping for or expecting promotions, which may or may not end up happening.

Guys get into bitcoin from where they are at and they may well be attempting to adapt how much bitcoin that they may be able to buy based on a combination of their income and expenses situation, and surely if guys are involved in their own business or they have a partner (or partners0 in the business so there could be complications related to finances, and they also might have family obligations with uncertain expenses and possibly even a partner who contributes and shares in income and/or expenses that might bring some complications too.. whether or not the family partner ends up sharing in the bitcoin investment there could be benefits in perhaps putting together separate accounts, and joint accounts and/or even accounts for a child (or more than one child).


Well, you are making the problem worse if you are suggesting that a person might have a target for 2 BTC and if he is just getting started versus if a person was targeting 2 BTC and he already has 1 BTC.

I find it problematic to be trying to set targets in terms of number of BTC too, except to the extent that a person might have some realistic ideas in regards to how he is going to get there, since the further we project out then the harder it becomes to figure out the goals in terms of BTC absent also having some expectations regarding how much dollars might be able to put into bitcoin.

If a person has an income that is around $50k per year and he is brand new to bitcoin, yet he had already been investing for around 10 years prior to coming to bitcoin (meaning that he has an existing investment portfolio that is in the ballpark of $75k, then he might be able to reasonably project getting to 2 BTC in 8 to 10 years.  Perhaps?  He would surely either need to front load his investment or plan to have a fairly high investment rate (perhaps in the neighborhood of 25% of his income or greater.

If the guy knows that he is able to invest 25% of his income, then he knows that every 4-ish years, then he may well would be able to invest 1 year's of his income into bitcoin, so he would have to be expecting to get raises, since even this guy investing $50k every 4 years, after $12 years, he would have had merely invested $150k into bitcoin, which it does not seem very plausible to expect that the average price per BTC would be oNLY $75k over 12 years - since he would be striving to get 2 BTC... so the front loading would have to be even more intense than 25% of his income invested every year, which is seeming harder to pull off.

Having realistic plans make sense, and if a guy had been earning $50k per year over the past 10 years, he better have some path to higher income expectations in order to be realistic in a plan to accumulate 2 BTC in the next 8-10 years.


I am not sure how realistic you are either.  I do think that if a person is able to try to dedicate to investing a certain percentage of his income (such as 25% per year), then maybe he could say that whatever his income is, he wants to try to be able to live off of his bitcoin at double the amount of his then current income in 12-15 years.. so then he would be putting the equivalent of his income into bitcoin every 4 years, so after 12 years, he would have had put 3 years of his income into bitcoin..., and sure he might need to be more flexible - especially if he is a brand new investor, yet if he is coming to bitcoin with already experience investing in other things, so then going back to the guy with an income of $50k yet he had built up $75k investment portfolio - yet part of his problem is that he was likely ONLY investing around 10% since if he had been investing 25% of his income historically, then in 10 years, he would have had invested $125k after 10 years, and presumptively the investment portfolio would have had gone up during tht time too... so after 10 years he might have an investment portfolio that is $200k or more.  So if he does not already have a track record of being able to invest at such a high rate (such as 25% of his income), then it might seem that he is not being realistic in term of making his goals realistic in terms of what he had been doing in the past.


Are you assuming the same thing as Kuchuku - Obulis? 

If a guy is already buying bitcoin every week, then you are saying that the guy also somehow magically has money available for buying the dip and buying more and more on the dip, besides what he had been buying every week for buying the dip?  He is not running out of money?

I am not saying that it is not possible to save money for buying the dip, yet I am saying that there are trade offs in doing such a thing, which means the  guys were holding back such money for bitcoin and/or for other purposes .. and then decides to use such money to buy the dip.. the money for buying the dip does not just magically appear out of the sky so guys have to figure out the extent to which they are already planning to do those kinds of things or to have money those kinds of dip buying purposes that is saved for other purposes, but then such money ends up getting repurposed to buy bitcoin.

I am not going to just presume money just shows up, and surely there could even be guys who have other investments or even some things that they purposefully choose to sell in order to generate more money based on dips, yet I am not going to presume that the money is just there without guys already accounting for the money being there.


You are probably correct to assert (or imply) that richer people and institutions have motivations that are similar to poor people, yet at the same time, if they have identified an investment they also might be engaging in a certain period of focused buying, whether such buying lasts for a few months or maybe it takes a bit longer for them to establish a stake.. yet some of the institutions are not concerned about the difference between $80k and $110k, even though surely anyone appreciates a discount, yet they still might be buying at any price for a certain period of time while they are establishing their initial stake.

Welp. To some extent the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other assets can be controlled by those who have a significant amount of the current supply on their hands, whales can set orders on exchanges, the so called red and green walls, in order to manipulate the price of a Bitcoin, prompting people to sell or buy Bitcoin.

There are several videos on YouTube about it, on how whales make use of their holdings to manipulate and influence on the market so they can win money in the long term, those case of Polymarket would be just another tool on their tool set for them to capitalize their influence.

Provably it is, since its hard to get an accurate insights on crypto since no one can predict the possible price movement of those coins.

So this is huge luck on the side of player and he win all of his bets, maybe it may require some little skills since who know that bettor know how to read the charts. But for sure this is just luck and its just coincidence that he win all of his bets made.

So I doubt he have insider info on crypto bets, but if he place bet on sports maybe we can assume that he have.

And it’s not just Bitcoin either, there are altcoins involved and even sports bets. So yeah, you’re right, there’s no way this can be manipulated that easily, the guy is either really good or just one of those lucky ones.

That’s already one month of profit. If this keeps going for another month, then you can safely say the user actually knows what he’s doing, at that point Poly would basically be his playground for making easy money. 

Of course, the guys are in slightly different situations based on the first example being brand new to both bitcoin and investing and the second example being brand new to bitcoin but not brand new to investing ....

And part of my point was to attempt to get Menele001 to be more specific in his discussion rather than just rambling out some random ideas about what guys are supposedly supposed to do.


Sure, the second guy has his discretionary income (which, for the sake of ease of presentation, is the same as the first guy) and the second guy also has funds that he could potentially consider to allocate into bitcoin.
 

Well, if the second guy had been investing for 10 years and reached 1.5x his current salary, then historically he had probably averaged putting at least 10% of his income into his investments.
 

That seems pretty risky to put 100% of discretionary funds into bitcoin.  You know the two other categories are consume and save... So there are 3 ways that discretionary funds can be spent.
 

Your categories of emergency fund and reserve funds are both savings (two kinds of back up funds), so they are largely the same category.. even though I don't object to your allocation quantities.  The consumption proportion of 10% seems a bit small in terms of practicality, even though sure it might work, since each of us has to figure out what is financially and psychologically comfortable for our own situation and what we believe might come up and even including considering how much time there might be between paychecks... Of course, there might also be certain monthly bills that come due on a certain date of the month.
 

It is not guaranteed that they will win, even though they can come up with decent ways of managing their money that will help them to improve their chances of "winning.".. and yeah, maybe we frequently can proclaim that even in the process of organizing our finances, we already create situations in which we are already winning because we create situations in which we have options in regards to financial matters because ideally with the passage of time our bitcoin holdings become larger and also our back up funds likely become larger too... even though it could be that once our back up funds get to a certain level, we might focus more on building our bitcoin, as you had mentioned, gracreavix.


You talk like a shitcoiner Obulis.

Diversification is likly a tool to preserve your wealth rather than grow it.. which is part of the reason that many of us suggest to start out with bitcoin and dollars first, and then consider diversifying later.  It may be healthy to consider diversification in relation to bitcoin as a way of diversifying the cash portion of your holdings rather than the bitcoin portion... since the longer that we are in bitcoin, the larger and larger we may want our back up funds to be so that we never have to dip into our bitcoin at a time that is not of our choosing, yet when cash starts to get to 5-6 months or more, it might start to feel like some of that value could up getting put to work and still serving as back up funds, but performing better than the dollar since the dollar (and all other fiat) is known to be ongoingly being debased.



Your use of the term diversification makes it sound like you don't know what you are talking about.



Don't many of us ongoingly suggest that one of the most important things in bitcoin is get the fuck started, especially once you know that you have discretionary funds.  The example shows that the guy has discretionary funds, yet you want to be so retarded as to believe that some value comes from building back up funds?  He already has $1k in back up funds, which is 66% of his monthly expenses. In this example, his back up funds are not zero, yet his bitcoin is zero.



You sound retarded.

The guy has $1k per month in discretionary funds, so how much of that do you want him to put into his back up funds?  If he puts $500 a month into his back up funds, then it is going to take him right around 7 months for his back up funds to reach 3 months of his expenses.  You want the guy to fuck around building dollars for 7 months?  

From my perspective you seem to have a bit of a lack of understanding of what is bitcoin, and sure of course, people can do what they like.  We have a lot of poor people who are always saving up cash, and guess what happens, they never stop being poor since their building up of their cash tends to debase about as fast as they are building it up, especially once it starts to get to larger quantities that might be more than 2-3 months of their expenses.

We tend to still suggest building up back up funds to be more than 3 months of expenses, yet I think that part of the presumption is that such back up funds are being built up at the side of building up of a bitcoin investment, so in the context of bitcoin, the back up funds are serving purposes of protecting the bitcoin - even though the back up funds are likely ongoingly being debased.. which is not fair.. but since the back up funds are likely being kept in our local currency.. they are both liquid and not volatile in terms of being able to be used to pay various of our expenses that might come up in event of loss of income and/or increase in expenses.


Well.  He has $1k per month of discretionary income, so you want him to put all of it in bitcoin? What about discretionary consumption?  What about the $45k that he had already built up?  What is he going to do about that?  Do you want him to continue to build the $7,500 of his back up funds or to just maintain the $7,500 at that level?


That sounds like a pretty intense plan in terms of  not diversifying, even though I am not sure what you mean by accumulating 60% of his bitcoin portfolio.

Are you suggesting that if, for example, the guy had a bitcoin portfolio size target to be able to live off of bitcoin at $80k per year, then right now he would need 13.8277 BTC, so then if right now he were to have at least 8.3 BTC, then at that point he could start to diversify - and it would not be recommended for him to diversify before reaching that level.

By the way, it seems to me that a guy who right now has 8.3 BTC, he would not need to accumulate any more bitcoin and by mid 2028 (in my updated not posted projection table), the guy would have enough to start to withdraw at $80k per year... .so, in other words, 60% of the way there gets a guy within right around 2.5-ish years from being at his goal without even having to stack any more sats (of course there could be a bit of variance in the specifics of the projections which is sometimes part of the rationale to overshoot so that mistakes are not made and cushions are in place).

I personally think that the building up the back up funds likely serve as a better reference, yet I am also not sure when diversification might be allowed to start, including maybe if a guy had already put 1-2 years of his income (or maybe his target income) into bitcoin... then at that point he might be able to start to slow down in his BTC accumulation intensity.. which allows diversification into other investments.


You are lacking a lot of specifics in regards to this second guy.  The second guy has absolutely no bitcoin, and you can't tell him what to do?   You seem to be just suggesting in fairly vague ways that such guy can invest aggressively into bitcoin?  What does that mean with specifics?  

The reason that I gave these examples was in order to attempt to inspire guys try to grapple with specific situations or maybe to create their own specific situations that describe staring points and how to proceed with such starting points, which tends to justify that guys might need to attempt to be more specific in their descriptions about how to proceed.

Of course the second guy has more flexibility in what he can do based on his having had already built up an investment portfolio and built up his back up funds, yet he still doesn't have any BTC and he is 10 years older than the first guy, too... so he does not have as much time to build up his bitcoin holdings and/or other aspects of his investment portfolio as compared with the first guy.  Where do you think that the second guy wants to be by the time he is in his 50s or in his 60s? presuming that potentially he is able to keep his job for a bit more time while he is building the bitcoin portion of his investment portfolio.


I appreciate some aspect of your spunk, Frankolala - yet there is something off about your suggestion.  

You are suggesting 80% or 90% put into bitcoin and 10% or 20% into back up funds, yet at the same time, you are suggesting  discretionary consumption is 0% and you also seem to presume that the back up funds just automatically build themselves, even though you are ONLY suggesting to put 10% to 20% of the discretionary funds into them for 3-ish months?  That's ridiculous.

Think about it.  Currently, the guy ONLY has $1k in his back up funds, and if he wants to get his back up funds up to 3 months of his expenses, then the total is going to be $4,500 for his back up funds.  So even if we were to split the baby and consider that you might be saying to put 15% of the discretionary funds into the back up funds, then that is $150 per months, and it is going to take 23.33 months to build those back up funds an additional $3,5000 (that is $3,500/$150).

Another thing is you are completely silent on discretionary consumption. Do you expect the guy to be completely deprived of discretionary consumption?  That does not sound healthy for his psychology.  It sounds unrealistic.  To attempt to be realistic and even sustainable, for everyone, even those tight-wad curmudgeons, there needs to be some budget for discretionary consumption.


So you are suggesting that he invest 100% of his discretionary funds into bitcoin, and just keep his back up funds at $7,500 forever and ever?  What about the $45,000 that he has already built up?  Just leave that?  Continue to build it? or cash it out and reallocate it into bitcoin?

By the way, I did not say anything about the second guy having any business as both you and Merit.s seemed to have had plugged that additional dynamic into that hypothetical. I mentioned that the guy has a $30k per year income (just like the first guy) and that he had built up an investment of $45k - presumptively something like stocks or some assets that are somewhat liquid even though I did not specify beyond saying that they were prior to his getting involved in bitcoin.  

All slots are taken! The current block number is 934338, and the winner will be determined at block 934348 using Bitmover 🎉

Thank you for joining and best of luck!

Mainly because of my free time. I become busy last year on my work which is why I developed a laziness on availing bonus that has huge wagering requirements since it consumes a lot of time to complete while it usually ended up with bust before I even complete the wagering requirements.

depends on the bonus code. the ones i claimed so far gave me between $5 and $30, and i'm not even an active player.
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Thanks, I appreciate the info.


Oh. I rarely visit the game and rounds board but that’s great since you can withdraw it immediately. It’s interesting to see that board is already profitable for users.

Oficialmente, só a Dinamarca disse que iria vender todo a divida dos EUA que detém.
https://neofeed.com.br/economia/fundo-de-pensao-da-dinamarca-vende-titulos-do-tesouro-e-liga-alerta-de-acao-da-europa-contra-os-eua/

Agora, podem até nem vender, mas se pararem de comprar, complicam um pouco a vida aos EUA.