Not that impossible and that's more generous compared to the other requirement from the other casinos that has got more than 30x in a wagering requirement. But this is going to take time if he's going to spend the giveaway money that they've won. And just take it as a quest so that it won't be filling their heads of what they're trying to fulfill as if it's a game that they have to finish.

Yes, I forgot to mention that both the key that generates the codes every 30s and the hexadecimal backup of the key were in the same database. 

Excellent idea bitmover. I have a two phones and a tablet that i'm using less and less, but I still use them.. they could very well be configured to serve as a second device to generate 2FA codes.

When you need to migrate your 2FA backup keys to another App (which is what I did: google auth, iCloud Passwords > Keepass and similar), you'll see how painful it is, unless you have a few accounts with 2FA configured that can be migrated in minutes, or you unlink 2FA from your accounts one by one and then configure it with a new 2FA key. Neither google auth nor icloud Passwords allow this instant migration (unless it's between devices of the same brand or app). But I don't like the idea of being stuck with these apps.

Many people don't know this, but the Keepass password manager can also set up 2FA keys and generate codes every 30s.

You likely realize that I had been largely ball-parking ideas about what might be tolerated thresholds, which also likely relates back to guys who are using the tool in an attempt for sustainable withdrawal, then they may well be wanting to attempt to make sure that they get their money to go as far as they can get it to go... especially if they happen to be down to ONLY having bitcoin and cash in terms of their total investment portfolio (or their income sources for guys who had almost completely stopped working and receiving income from work).

So yeah, right now, the spot price is in the 33% to 66% above the 200-WMA range.. which it seems to be better to withdraw 2 months (1 month current and an additional month) rather than taking reduced withdrawals if the BTC price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA or even if it gets to the 200-WMA or lower, then it seems more of a time for buying rather than selling, even though if a person is already in their sustainable withdrawal phase, they might not have any other income sources, and they  might not have had withdrawn some months in advance during the times that the BTC price was substantially higher than the 200-WMA.. .. I cannot recall whether in this cycle if we had some temporary times in the 200% to 400% higher than the 200-WMA which would have had allowed withdrawing 11 months in advance, even though we did have a lot of times that the BTC price was in the 100% to 200% above the 200-WMA, which would have had allowed withdrawing 5 months in advance. 

My overall conclusion is that most people do not have any meaningful investments, and sure they might end up buying their house, and in the west, they might have some retirement program through their employment.. yet most people do not have investments beyond those two.

Accordingly, Let's stick with the example of a certain number of guys who might come to bitcoin and they have already built up various investment assets, and so when they come to bitcoin they could be faced with either keeping those other investments (and even continuing to contribute to them) or they could slowly or even rapidly divest from those assets.

So, if the guys are coming to bitcoin with an intention of increasing their exposure to bitcoin they have a variety of options, yet in their initial stages of coming to bitcoin they might be reluctant to sell other investments and to put that value into bitcoin rather than potentially working towards getting their allocation of bitcoin up to a point that they might want to get it, whether they want to get to somewhere between 5% to 25% of their quasi-liquid allocation into bitcoin or if they might have some other target number.

Let's go back to the example of a guy in his mid-30s who comes to bitcoin and he has a $30k income, and who had been investing $100 per week for the past 10 years.  In this example the guy had already been investing right around 15% of his income.  So right now if his non-bitcoin investment portfolio is $45k, then maybe if he wants his bitcoin holdings to get to be 15% of his already existing $45k portfolio, then that would be a target of $6.75k based on current valuations.  Maybe he could just divert all of his investing into bitcoin and discontinue investing into his non-bitcoin holdings until maybe after he reaches his 15% goal. If the guy invests at $100 per week, it would take him 67.5 weeks to reach $6.75k invested into bitcoin.  He could have reasons for keeping his other investments.. Maybe they have tax deferral status or they have employer matching contributions, yet if he considers going beyond his earlier investment budget of $100 per week (or 15%) he might put unwanted stress on his cashflows.. and surely these are choices that guys may end up making if they see that they have options.  And, their choices might relate to other aspects of their lives.  This guy might have had already been considering that he might have to continue to work until he is in his 60s (another 25 years), yet he might also consider that with bitcoin investing possibilities that maybe he could cut down his timeline to keep working to merely another 15 years or so.


To me it seems that guys would be starting price based sustainable withdrawal once they reach a large enough stash of bitcoin, and if you are investing in bitcoin sporadically, I have troubles thinking how you might be able to reach that in less than 10 years.

And, it does not matter so much about whether you are able to invest $100, $10 or some other level per week, yet you can still measure to see how much of your income you are putting into bitcoin, so if you end up putting 10% into bitcoin it is going to take nearly 10 years to get to 1 years income put into bitcoin.  On the other hand if you were to figure out how to put 25% into bitcoin, then after 4 years you would have had put 1 whole year of your income into bitcoin.  Surely 10% is much more practical and doable as compared with 25%, yet some guys may well be investing way less than 10% yet expecting results as if they had been investing 25%.  So, even though bitcoin remains a great investment, there are needs for guys to be realistic in regards to how much they are putting in relative to their income (and their expected standards of living), and even if bitcoin might appreciate well, a guy who put more than his annual income over several years would end up doing way better than a guy who might have put in only a few months of his annual income into his bitcoin investment.

We have to attempt to be realistic about both the amount we are putting in and our BTC performance expectations.. which also can be addressed by doing our own calculations and making sure that our calculations are based on the realities of what we are putting in rather than fantasies.. that also include problems if we are withdrawing at various points along the way.. and we end up fucking up our building of our bitcoin stash and also fucking up the way that the investment might have tendencies to compound upon itself, especially after a couple of cycles or more.


I am starting from the premise of a guy who had already reached overaccumulation status.  So, he likely would have a cushion between how much bitcoin he holds and how much he is selling, so the reductions in the amounts are meant to account for an ability to be sustained.. but yeah, a guy who is worried about his withdrawal no longer being sustainable or that his withdrawals or overly depleting his holdings, then he might choose to withdraw at an even lower rate or to discontinue withdrawals during those kinds of times.

Part of the problem of reducing withdrawals is that there is an assumption that the guy is no longer working, so he may have already become reliant on his bitcoin as a regular income source to the extent that he does not have other income sources.

Let's take the example of the guy with a $30k income and he had been accumulating bitcoin at $100 per week for 10 years (right around 17% of his income) from January 2016 to present.  He had invested $53k over those 10 years and he had accumulated 15.3 BTC.  His target was to be able to quit his job once he would be able to sustain an income of $80k per year off of his income, and he looks at the chart, and he sees right now, 13.8102 would be enough to sustain an income of $80k per year... and so he has nearly 1.5 BTC  extra.  He could start right now with the extra BTC or he could withdraw at a reduced rate.  He could wait a few months an then the same quantity of BTC would support a higher withdrawal amount in terms of dollars.

The punchline still relates to guys having to do their own calculations to make sure that they are comfortable and that they are not withdrawing in such a way that their withdrawal rate is not sustainable... so yeah, guys should not be overly withdrawing from their stash to knock themselves out of overaccumulation status, and personally, I think that bitcoin allows for quite aggressive withdrawal rates, yet guys have to still make sure that they don't fuck it up buy overly withdrawing, so they may well feel better withdrawing at a lower rate or even discontinuing withdrawals for a period of time until they feel that their chosen withdrawal rate is sustainable.

Below is a description of the reductions of the withdrawal rate (from the sustainable withdrawal website), yet guys are responsible for their own ways of dealing with the matter of finding what  they consider to be sustainable withdrawal in terms of if they agree with my numbers or if they believe other numbers would work better for them:

>>>>>>>>>When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget.<<<<<<<<<


Yes... We are getting a bit ahead of ourselves, even though it does not hurt to look ahead, there still tends to be a need to build up the bitcoin holdings first before those kinds of sustainable withdrawal matters would start to become applicable... and it is likely better to be dealing with your actual numbers of where you are at rather than where you might be, unless you happen to be getting close to your numbers, then at least it is more realistic that you are close to getting there.

Even though I have not updated my fuck you status chart recently, it seems relevant to show that lower and lower amounts of BTC is required to support certain dollar income levels.

I personally anticipate that there are decently good probabilities that in 10 years, less than 1 BTC stash would support an $80k per year job and the ability to give 7% per year raises in the dollar level... and sure of course, also we have to consider the role of ongoing dollar debasement in our calculations, too.


Its optional how to choose withdrawal, and my tool even suggests ways to withdraw in advance based on BTC prices going higher than the 200 WMA.

>>>>>>•Advanced Withdrawal (No. Months)

This output is calculated based on if the BTC spot price is higher than the 200 WMA. Accordingly:

A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months.<<<<<<<

But, yeah it is quite possible that BTC is not going to be reaching thos high numbers anymore... so adjustments could be made to the advance withdrawal ideas.
 

It is good to have some ideas regarding where you want to go, yet you still have to take concrete actions to get there (or work towards getting there).. and yeah, some of the numbers might change along the way.. regarding how many bitcoin you need and/or how many you had accumulated and even ups and downs of your own finances and/or your abilities to stay focused on your goals.. since it still seems to me that you have inclinations to sell or to try to trade rather than staying focused on ongoing accumulation through buying.. but yeah, the more you practice, then hopefully you find ways to make your bitcoin accumulation work for you so that you are ongoingly building your stash.


It seems to me that right now to be able to sustainably withdraw $2k per month, then you would need to have at least 4.15 bitcoin, so perhaps in 10 years you would need less than 1 BTC.. Maybe even in the ballpark of less than 0.5 BTC... yet it can be difficult to project that far ahead with precision, which I think is part of the reason that guys tend to want to shoot to accumulate more than they believe that they are going to need so that they might have a bit of a cushion when it comes time to start to enter into something like sustainable withdrawal.

LoyceV summed it up well.

As far as I know, the deadline for applications was 31/01/2026, but considering that it is only the first round and it is necessary to give the first prediction by February 4th, maybe the manager will accept your late application

With investment, you need time for accumulation and get profit but time is not several weeks or months but should be in years. Targeting at profit within several weeks or months is not easy, and it's in fact very risky for your portfolio especially if you have bad financial management.

This hold camp map shows the safe holding time for your bitcoin portfolio, to avoid loss and after that you can get profit.
https://hodl.camp/

Build up your portfolio, your finance too and follow this strategy for your Investment portfolio withdrawal.
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

With the multi-device 2FA strategy, it's really important for security. iCloud does make transfers easier, but it's worth noting that it only works within the Apple ecosystem. If you ever want to switch to Android, the migration process becomes more complicated. It might be better to use like google auth, which now supports cloud sync via google account and works on both iOS and Android. More flexible in the long term.

Many complain about using the (i)cloud service as a backup, but I cannot express my gratitude enough for how much it simplified and facilitated the transfer to other devices. Most apps and accounts are migrated very easily, including the authenticator.
Now I currently have the option of three different devices 

@bitmover
I may have suggested this to you before, although I don't think I did, so here it is.

What do you think about a tool that would facilitate all prediction contests? As we can now add the current price of Bitcoin to the post, through your API, maybe you can add a new feature that will enable printing the price for the exact time. So, for example, a contest for predicting the price on March 1, +1 UTC, where your API would print the remaining counter until that moment, after that, there would always be a print that was accurate at that moment.

Check this, Halab has launched an interesting battle royale for a BTC price prediction game sponsored by Bridgoro (I'm surprised not to see you there).
For example, he scheduled a first prediction round, but due to the specificity of the contest, the exact time may be very important. Some members have already started a discussion about which time zone to use.
Automation would help a lot and make the contest more transparent. At the same time, if you know, similar prediction contests are often started, so such a tool could be useful
I hope I have at least roughly explained the idea.

I have approved your account. You can now login and get the ad codes.

Let me know if you need any help.
Thanks for the early help.

---

can you post a screenshot of the stats?

I'm thinking one is a total of all impressions and the other is impressions in a certain timeframe.

I will look into this today. 

DT Member - Februari 2026
DT1 Member periode kali ini berjumlah 113 user

Daftar lama: Code: theymos OgNasty Vod vapourminer philipma1957 babo Cyrus ibminer d5000 joker_josue Mitchell vizique albon wwzsocki Timelord2067 jeremypwr gbianchi EFS dbshck hybridsole stompix hilariousandco arulbero buckrogers Buchi-88 JayJuanGee NeuroticFish achow101 DaveF examplens nutildah minerjones irfan_pak10 yahoo62278 bitbollo zazarb pooya87 LFC_Bitcoin o_solo_miner Real-Duke klarki The Sceptical Chymist SFR10 TryNinja holydarkness Lafu polymerbit tweetious giammangiato buwaytress crwth Ale88 Kryptowerk julerz12 Vispilio hosemary krogothmanhattan JollyGood RaltcoinsB igebotz CryptopreneurBrainboss hugeblack El duderino_ KTChampions Trofo sheenshane 3meek Bitcoin_Arena GazetaBitcoin TheBeardedBaby tvplus006 mole0815 bitmover DdmrDdmr anonymousminer Lakai01 Husna QA fillippone cryptofrka abhiseshakana The Cryptovator DireWolfM14 notblox1 Little Mouse YOSHIE inspace jokers10 Awaklara geophphreigh zasad@ Rikafip Etranger NotATether Stalker22 BlackHatCoiner Lillominato89 YodasRedRocket PowerGlove God Of Thunder apogio

-----

Daftar Baru: Code: HostFat gmaxwell OgNasty Vod vapourminer mprep Foxpup philipma1957 Cyrus Welsh ibminer d5000 joker_josue Mitchell albon wwzsocki Timelord2067 jeremypwr gbianchi EFS hybridsole stompix hilariousandco arulbero buckrogers Buchi-88 willi9974 NeuroticFish achow101 examplens nutildah minerjones irfan_pak10 yahoo62278 bitbollo pooya87 LFC_Bitcoin mocacinno Real-Duke klarki LoyceV The Sceptical Chymist SFR10 TryNinja holydarkness Lafu polymerbit AakZaki giammangiato buwaytress crwth Kryptowerk Vispilio hosemary krogothmanhattan RaltcoinsB igebotz El duderino_ KTChampions Trofo icopress JeromeTash logfiles Bitcoin_Arena GazetaBitcoin tvplus006 mole0815 DdmrDdmr shahzadafzal anonymousminer Lakai01 Husna QA Bthd fillippone cryptofrka abhiseshakana The Cryptovator lovesmayfamilis DireWolfM14 notblox1 Little Mouse YOSHIE inspace jokers10 Awaklara efialtis geophphreigh zasad@ Rikafip Etranger NotATether Stalker22 bullrun2024bro Charles-Tim Lillominato89 Free Market Capitalist YodasRedRocket PowerGlove God Of Thunder apogio

Sumber: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg66361122#msg66361122

Theymos reshuffled DT1.

Removed:
     1. Administrator theymos (Trust: +30 / =0 / -0) (13959 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. Legendary babo (Trust: +7 / =1 / -0) (4517 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. Legendary vizique (Trust: +35 / =0 / -0) (648 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. Staff dbshck (Trust: +8 / =0 / -0) (625 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. Legendary JayJuanGee (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (12908 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. Legendary DaveF (Trust: +32 / =2 / -0) (6592 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. Legendary zazarb (Trust: +20 / =0 / -0) (548 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. Legendary o_solo_miner (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (526 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. Sr. Member tweetious (Trust: +27 / =0 / -0) (447 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. Legendary Ale88 (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (3346 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. Legendary julerz12 (Trust: +14 / =6 / -0) (1127 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. Legendary JollyGood (Trust: +20 / =2 / -0) (1831 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. Legendary CryptopreneurBrainboss (Trust: +18 / =0 / -0) (5132 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    14. Legendary hugeblack (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (4372 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    15. Legendary sheenshane (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (1170 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    16. Hero Member 3meek (Trust: neutral) (610 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    17. Legendary TheBeardedBaby (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (3336 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    18. Legendary bitmover (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (7263 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    19. Legendary BlackHatCoiner (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (9304 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)

Added:
     1. Staff HostFat (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (301 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. Staff gmaxwell (Trust: +13 / =0 / -1) (9361 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. Global Moderator mprep (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (1729 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. Legendary Foxpup (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (2675 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. Staff Welsh (Trust: +3 / =1 / -0) (3350 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. Legendary willi9974 (Trust: +48 / =0 / -0) (2765 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. Legendary mocacinno (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (4516 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. Legendary LoyceV (Trust: +33 / =2 / -0) (20037 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. Legendary AakZaki (Trust: +7 / =2 / -0) (1398 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. Legendary icopress (Trust: +78 / =0 / -0) (11553 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. Legendary JeromeTash (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (1347 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. Copper Member logfiles (Trust: +5 / =1 / -0) (2216 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. Copper Member shahzadafzal (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (3192 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    14. Legendary Bthd (Trust: +2 / =1 / -0) (2603 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    15. Legendary lovesmayfamilis (Trust: +30 / =2 / -0) (5369 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    16. Legendary efialtis (Trust: +25 / =0 / -0) (1551 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    17. Legendary bullrun2024bro (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (5120 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    18. Legendary Charles-Tim (Trust: +7 / =1 / -0) (6172 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    19. Legendary Free Market Capitalist (Trust: +1 / =1 / -0) (3133 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)

A big thanks to everyone who participated in this contest/raffle!

Without you and your support, Physical Crypto creators wouldn’t have this honor.

Congrats to Polymerbit on all your success! Your art serves as an inspiration to many!

Now, here are the results for the raffle! Block #934651

Winner! 23 Gazeta, Congratulations and God Bless! 🎉⚡️



Howard will take it from here. 🤍

This month 113 users were eligible.

Old:
New:

O que parte do povo brasileiro estava pensando na hora de eleger um pinguço corrupto com escândalos de corrupção nas costas... uma suíça? É o que eu falo, quem votou nesse jagunço tem culpa também, não falo pelos ignorantes que votou nele, desse pessoal eu tenho mais é pena, pois a lavagem cerebral é muito grande, principalmente em áreas remotas do país que não tem nem saneamento básico, quiça internet... mas boa parte da elite aristocrata e estudantes universitários que acham que entendem o mundo, são um bando de socialistas.

E eu não acho que o lula vai se reeleger, as rejeições estão subindo a cada pesquisa e o 01 só ganhando espaço, crescendo em cada pesquisa, eu ainda tenho esperanças, pois o Trump está pressionando o Lula para ter eleições justas (ou a magnitsky e sanções inesperadas voltam). Tem entrevistas do lula mostrando apavoro e desespero de perder as eleições.

I did not know that we were having a "who's more bullish?" contest.

Interesting.

Part of my ongoing criticism of you relates to how smart that you are trying to act in your various spins of what you are supposedly doing, yet part of your underlying likely loss comes from your failure to stack and some of your earlier sales in which you were not able to get back your stack (such as 2017) yet you want to act like you are smarter than everyone else.. and a bit of humility would likely be a good thing - but you would rather brag and compete in regards to details that we could not confirm anyhow.

So yeah I recognize that you consider yourself to still be in your BTC accumulation phase, and whether that is due to your not having enough BTC or your setting your goals too high, I am not sure. You seem to subscribe to a school of thought that contributes to a mentality that you can never have enough, which I consider that to be problematic since I think that guys can get to a stage of having enough or more than enough BTC.

You seem to be describing my goals as if I were the same as you in terms of having goals to continue to accumulate bitcoin, which I am no longer in that stage of my bitcoin investment journey, even though from time to time, I might buy some extra BTC from funds that are not already in my bitcoin funds.

I have largely been following price-based sustainable withdrawal since 2015 - which does tend to result in buying back.

Time-based sustainable withdrawal does not tend to have buying back within its parameters, and I had set up a couple of my accounts to start following that since 2022, and those accounts had been selling way below the authorized amounts, so largely between 3% to 6% per year based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA - even though my theory is that 10% withdrawal per year based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA would be tolerable. Even within the first two accounts that were authorized to be able to sell, some of them pay in BTC or even transfer to other accounts (that are not under my control) that hold the value in BTC, so there seems to be a bit of refusal to sell the BTC, even though surely some of the authorized bitcoin is being sold (converted into dollars).

In recent times, I had authorized the ability of a couple more accounts to withdraw within the time-based sustainable withdrawal systems at about a 4% per year rate (for testing purposes)- yet those additional accounts had either refused to sell any BTC or sold BTC in fairly sporadic ways that ended up falling way below their 4% per year authorized rates.

You can see various aspects of my discussion of price-based and time-based sustainable withdrawal in my sustainable withdrawal thread, and surely my ideas of sustainable withdrawal for either of the systems (price-based and/or time-based) tend to authorized BTC sales in ways that create expectations of not being able to buy back the BTC that had been sold, even though since BTC is quite so crazily volatile, quite a few buy backs end up happening, yet the buy backs (to the extent that they happen) are largely ONLY within about 5% of the sales price, so they end up serving more like maintenance and/or downside insurance rather than any meaningful attempt to grown the size of the bitcoin holdings.. so there isn't really any goal to accumulate bitcoin in any substantive and/or meaningful way with even the price-based sustainable withdrawal system. 

Part of the reason that there is not much if any mission to attempt to accumulate more bitcoin is because I had already reached a conclusion somewhere between 2015 and 2017 that I had already reached over accumulation status - and surely my definitions of overaccumulation status have changed since then, even though there ends up being ingrained abilities to sell within the overaccumulated amounts without any necessity to accumulate more bitcoin.

Frequently I like to use the idea of an $80k income in order to attempt to explain, from my perspective, how overaccumulation status works.  We don't even have to go back more than 10 years.  Let's say that 10 years ago, a guy was in his mid 30s, and he had an income of around $40k, and he told himself that he was going to accumulate bitcoin until his bitcoin could support him with a income of $80k per year (largely double his income and I am keeping the numbers flat for ease of calculation).   So let's say that the guy started to DCA into bitcoin at $150 per week (19.5% of his income - sure a pretty aggressively high rate) since January 1, 2016, and so by now, he would have had invested nearly $80k into bitcoin, and he would have had accumulated 22.9 BTC.

Also if he looks up how many BTC he needs to have right now in order to sustain an income of $80k per year (with 7% increases each year), he sees that it would be a minimum of 13.8153 BTC, so he realizes that for some reason he had ended up accumulating right around 9.1 BTC more than he needs in order to meet his threshold standard of starting to withdraw bitcoin forever and ever and ever at the dollar rate of $80k per year and with a 7% raise each year.  He is largely within overaccumulation status with those extra 9.1 BTC...and he has a lot of freedom in regards to how to utilize that extra 9.1 BTC or merely to just keep  that extra 9.1 BTC as a kind of cushion.

The guy can employ time based sustainable withdrawal and/or price based sustainable withdrawal, and as long as he is staying within overaccumulation status (which should be easy with an extra 9.1BTC) then he does not need to worry about buying back any BTC, including that he can monitor the extent to which the quantity of his BTC cushion is shrinking or getting larger in order to see if he needs to take any actions to either decrease or increase his withdrawal rate.. .whether he withdraws monthly, quarterly, annually or on some other frequency.


Of course they do.

How you invest, allocate and/or change your allocations is a package (and/or a way of life), which is part of my point. 

If you made a gamble and your gamble paid off, sure you feel good about the bets that you made and that they had ended up paying off, but it might not have had been a good practice to be gambling rather than investing - especially with something like bitcoin..

For sure, we likely try to figure out and follow good ways of accumulating BTC, goods way of maintaining our BTC stashes if we might have had gotten to a quantity of BTC that we would like to maintain.... or even a good way of entering into sustainable withdrawal, if we might conclude that we have enough BTC or more than enough BTC to sustain our withdrawal rate at a level that we would like to deploy


Go figure!!!!!!

I was just talking about you in recent times... hahahahahaha


You are always ready for more dip.

That's how you roll.

 


We are in the WO thread, and in these here parts, we use Bitstamp, which registered $75,555 about 8 hours ago, as I draft this post. js

You can sign up as a publisher and you will be paid for the real impressions your ad code creates.

Currently we are paying 1 satoshi for every 100 impressions.

Bitcoin foi feito para não ficarmos a mercê dessas regras estatais inúteis, ele é uma ferramenta anti-censura de movimentações financeiras vai software com tecnologia P2P.

Holding your bitcoin a longer time, especially in cycles will help you getting more profit but if you feel like you need money or need to take profit for feeling and enjoying your succcess from investment, you can do it. Just don't sell all bitcoin you have as it can make you regret later. You can sell some part of your bitcoin portfolio like 20% of it, not more.

You can learn from the withdrawal strategy of Jay Juan Gee too.
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

You are onto something but then again your line of reasoning here is not very strong. You can pick up any alternative emotion that you proposed instead, but if you combine it with helplessness it becomes useless. Here we are talking about pure anger, rage that is directed and objective base -- there is no helplessness. Those that add helplessness to their anger, of frustration or whatever are part of a different group.

Sweet irony, I guess folks consider divorce part of good karma too these days.  

You kind of contradicted yourself with the example. You can't talk about the widespread availability of money making opportunities and then bring in a niche market as an example, it is by definition limited and not that many people can make serious money off of it. You can see something similar with freelancing websites which were a huge money making opportunity until they got flooded with 3rd world incompetent idiots that do low quality work for low pay, and AI work. Now they are very crowded and it is much harder to build a repertoire of clients for those that try this thing. New opportunities always exist, they are a sign of changing times -- but that does not mean that the situation is good. Overall, the economic situation right now is much worse than it has been in a very long time.


Those that are not angry are either depressed or deeply addicted to the system from what I can observe. Basically what they believe to be their own sovereign decision making, is just a coping addiction to distract themselves from the situation. Nobody sane would spend precious lifetime scrolling useless feeds or playing games continuously. I have even read of cases where Gen Z take stimulative drugs to play video games, not competitively nor for money, for longer. They have fallen really far down.

Update:
DT 1
     1. 35: theymos (Trust: +30 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (55) 13943 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. 30747: Vod (Trust: +29 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (5) 2509 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. 33156: vapourminer (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 4624 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. 64507: philipma1957 (Trust: +32 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (16) 10292 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. 65636: babo (Trust: +15 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (5) 4513 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. 78147: Cyrus (Trust: +23 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (19) 2462 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. 84866: ibminer (Trust: +14 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 2512 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. 85033: d5000 (Trust:  neutral) (DT1! (2) 9160 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. 97582: joker_josue (Trust: +8 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (5) 6043 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. 113670: Mitchell (Trust: +48 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (23) 1633 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. 120837: vizique (Trust: +37 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 648 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. 123824: albon (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (9) 1776 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. 131333: wwzsocki (Trust: +14 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1519 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    14. 137185: jeremypwr (Trust: +59 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (16) 6151 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    15. 140582: gbianchi (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 2367 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    16. 140584: EFS (Trust: +10 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1978 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    17. 153634: dbshck (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 625 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    18. 158444: hybridsole (Trust: +19 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 466 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    19. 164749: stompix (Trust:  neutral) (DT1! (10) 6393 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    20. 164822: hilariousandco (Trust: +28 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (32) 1853 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    21. 170072: arulbero (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 1507 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    22. 189967: buckrogers (Trust: +31 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (8) 195 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    23. 204821: Buchi-88 (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 2290 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    24. 252510: JayJuanGee (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (16) 12897 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    25. 257071: NeuroticFish (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 6014 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    26. 290195: achow101 (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (12) 6589 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    27. 300014: DaveF (Trust: +33 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (17) 6572 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    28. 314792: examplens (Trust: +8 / =5 / -0) (DT1! (26) 3339 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    29. 317618: nutildah (Trust: +22 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (27) 9469 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    30. 346731: minerjones (Trust: +141 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (19) 3176 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    31. 350580: irfan_pak10 (Trust: +16 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (2) 702 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    32. 355846: yahoo62278 (Trust: +40 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (22) 4175 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    33. 364070: bitbollo (Trust: +18 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 3553 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    34. 369212: zazarb (Trust: +34 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 548 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    35. 379147: pooya87 (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 11206 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    36. 379487: LFC_Bitcoin (Trust: +30 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (18) 11450 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    37. 395806: o_solo_miner (Trust: +8 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 526 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    38. 405482: Real-Duke (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (1) 2490 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    39. 407174: klarki (Trust: +4 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (3) 4286 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    40. 487418: The Sceptical Chymist (Trust: +33 / =3 / -0) (DT1! (25) 6232 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    41. 521899: SFR10 (Trust: +20 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 2955 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    42. 557798: TryNinja (Trust: +14 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (9) 9161 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    43. 754818: holydarkness (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (13) 1340 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    44. 805820: Lafu (Trust: +17 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (11) 3865 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    45. 811213: polymerbit (Trust: +17 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1006 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    46. 830967: tweetious (Trust: +34 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 447 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    47. 889300: giammangiato (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 1472 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    48. 901859: buwaytress (Trust: +30 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 3600 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    49. 914465: crwth (Trust: +4 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1115 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    50. 932931: Ale88 (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 3335 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    51. 949248: Kryptowerk (Trust: +52 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 1249 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    52. 950662: julerz12 (Trust: +13 / =6 / -0) (DT1! (3) 1111 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    53. 995810: hosemary (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 6572 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    54. 1000199: krogothmanhattan (Trust: +102 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (20) 4090 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    55. 1016855: JollyGood (Trust: +21 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (15) 1829 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    56. 1045971: igebotz (Trust: +17 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (9) 2185 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    57. 1052091: CryptopreneurBrainboss (Trust: +22 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (12) 5131 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    58. 1059082: hugeblack (Trust: +8 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (9) 4365 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    59. 1067333: El duderino_ (Trust: +27 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (10) 15095 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    60. 1097370: KTChampions (Trust: +6 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 2173 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    61. 1099980: Trofo (Trust: +29 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 3160 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    62. 1179651: sheenshane (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (2) 1170 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    63. 1269497: Bitcoin_Arena (Trust: +2 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (7) 2001 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    64. 1285797: GazetaBitcoin (Trust: +14 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (17) 9094 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    65. 1291828: TheBeardedBaby (Trust: +5 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (15) 3336 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    66. 1311641: tvplus006 (Trust: +13 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (12) 2437 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    67. 1424178: mole0815 (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (10) 3224 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    68. 1554927: bitmover (Trust: +7 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (6) 7254 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    69. 1582324: DdmrDdmr (Trust: +10 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (19) 11250 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    70. 1668017: anonymousminer (Trust: +44 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (8) 1382 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    71. 1724800: Lakai01 (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (5) 3781 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    72. 1827294: Husna QA (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 3266 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    73. 1852120: fillippone (Trust: +14 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (22) 19820 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    74. 1862043: cryptofrka (Trust: +17 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 2300 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    75. 1878246: abhiseshakana (Trust: +2 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 2458 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    76. 1980983: The Cryptovator (Trust: +22 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (19) 2464 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    77. 2003859: DireWolfM14 (Trust: +20 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (21) 5295 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    78. 2015418: notblox1 (Trust: +3 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1505 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    79. 2344286: Little Mouse (Trust: +42 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (9) 3411 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    80. 2363935: YOSHIE (Trust: +10 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (16) 1887 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    81. 2477002: inspace (Trust: +5 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (1) 1116 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    82. 2497429: jokers10 (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 3852 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    83. 2519096: Awaklara (Trust: +2 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (5) 819 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    84. 2652924: geophphreigh (Trust: +33 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1108 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    85. 2654005: zasad@ (Trust: +3 / =3 / -0) (DT1! (8) 5416 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    86. 2658890: Rikafip (Trust: +14 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (22) 7638 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    87. 2709122: Etranger (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (2) 1803 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    88. 2739424: NotATether (Trust: +8 / =2 / -0) (DT1! (9) 9286 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    89. 2739454: Stalker22 (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 1539 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    90. 2775483: BlackHatCoiner (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 9296 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    91. 2796662: Lillominato89 (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (4) 1214 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    92. 3442614: YodasRedRocket (Trust: +31 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (3) 644 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    93. 3486361: PowerGlove (Trust: +4 / =0 / -0) (DT1! (7) 6750 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    94. 3540187: apogio (Trust: +6 / =1 / -0) (DT1! (3) 2369 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)

DT 2
     1. 3: satoshi (Trust: +46 / =0 / -0) (8288 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     2. 4: sirius (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (878 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     3. 203: HostFat (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (300 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     4. 2252: laanwj (Trust:  neutral) (44 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     5. 2676: casascius (Trust: +6 / =0 / -1) (191 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     6. 2759: midnightmagic (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (27 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     7. 2786: Pieter Wuille (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (198 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
     8. 3318: Luke-Jr (Trust: +2 / =0 / -0) (196 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
     9. 3420: dooglus (Trust: +12 / =0 / -0) (334 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    10. 4171: Raize (Trust:  neutral) (24 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    11. 4528: Matt Corallo (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (15 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)
    12. 6347: Maged (Trust: +1 / =0 / -0) (17 Merit earned) (Custom Trust list) (BPIP)
    13. 10354: JJG (Trust:  neutral) (10 Merit earned) (Trust list) (BPIP)

Weekly update (2026-01-23_Fri_05.18h)


theymos' raw data (format: time    amount    msg    user_from    user_to)
Sample
Full list^* (54 MB) (not limited to 120 days, 2827 Merit transactions added since my previous update).

theymos' data (human readable format, including usernames and post titles)
Sample
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:23:56 AM CET, JayJuanGee (history) sent 1 Merit to Btcdeybodi (history) for Re: Merit &amp; new rank requirements.
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:16:16 AM CET, DireWolfM14 (history) sent 1 Merit to gmaxwell (history) for Block propagation consistency restored.
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:06:41 AM CET, JayJuanGee (history) sent 1 Merit to Son Of Blockchain (SOB) (history) for Re: Bitcoin in the next decade .
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:05:06 AM CET, JayJuanGee (history) sent 1 Merit to Yorubek (history) for Re: Bitcoin in the next decade .
On Fri 23 Jan 2026 03:04:08 AM CET, JayJuanGee (history) sent 1 Merit to Dogedegen (history) for Re: Bitcoin in the next decade .
.......
.......
.......
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:28:54 PM CET, AdolfinWolf (history) sent 1 Merit to Lutpin (history) for Re: What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:54 PM CET, Dahman El_Harrachi (history) sent 1 Merit to theymos (history) for Re: Forum ranks/positions/badges (What do those shiny coins under my name mean?).
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:22 PM CET, Tyrantt (history) sent 5 Merit to AdolfinWolf (history) for What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:27:13 PM CET, Last of the V8s (history) sent 2 Merit to Rosewater Foundation (history) for Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion.
On Wed 24 Jan 2018 11:12:21 PM CET, theymos (history) sent 1 Merit to AdolfinWolf (history) for What is the function of the "Merit" score?.
Full list (573 MB)

Usernames to go with theymos' data
Sample
0: deMerit (Bitcoin Forum) (history) earned: 0 Merit.
3: satoshi (history) earned: 8288 Merit.
4: sirius (history) earned: 878 Merit.
10: Xunie (history) earned: 1 Merit.
11: madhatter (history) earned: 5 Merit.
.......
.......
.......
3743344: NKminer66 (history) earned: 1 Merit.
3743503: Mateomateomateo (history) earned: 1 Merit.
3743536: valen_koinly (history) earned: 1 Merit.
3743964: melina710 (history) earned: 3 Merit.
3743974: banktobtc (history) earned: 7 Merit.
Full list^* (10 MB)

Usernames machine readable
Sample
Full list (2 MB)

UserIDs, sent Merit and earned Merit machine readable
Sample
Full list (1 MB)

Total number of users who received 1 or more Merit: 50884
Sample
Full list (5 MB)

Total number of users who gave away 1 or more sMerit: 26519
Sample
Full list (3 MB)

Merit per day of the week
Monday 321488 (14.35%)
Tuesday 319713 (14.27%)
Wednesday 320405 (14.30%)
Thursday 342089 (15.27%)
Friday 339444 (15.15%)
Saturday 296528 (13.24%)
Sunday 299793 (13.38%)
Total: 2239460

---

^* This file will be overwritten by newer versions

Most miners have very well-connected nodes that are geographically diverse. The reason for this is that they want to get started on a new block ASAP after a previous block has been found.

Similarly, many merchants have multiple nodes that are geographically diverse.

In both cases, the node owners try to avoid it being known the entity who is behind the node so to prevent attackers from being able to segment them from the rest of the network.

So spending two conflicting transactions at nearly the same time will not necessarily result in a particular transaction being confirmed. I would speculate that all else being equal, the transaction with the higher fee will be confirmed, and the other discarded in most cases.

Also, any entity accepting 0/unconfirmed transactions is likely to monitor the network for conflicting transactions, and not accept the transaction if a double spend attempt is detected.

In fact, there are many Polymarket users who can earn much more, as I will share that he made $20K per day in prediction betting on Polymarket.

User: https://polymarket.com/@k9Q2mX4L8A7ZP3R
News on Twitter: https://x.com/Shelpid_WI3M/status/2017333191527260493
Sorry not for any promotion, just want your opinion.

Most of what I see on Twitter they can make hundreds of thousands of dollars in 1 month using the bot they created and then shared it on Twitter, being proud they have succeeded in doing so.

The question is about the bot they shared is a bit suspicious.
Do you think this is like an act of fraud where they give the promise of a good win, or is this penggina too adept at guessing bitcoin predictions up and down?

DCA is dollar cost averaging, which largely is an approach to buying that does not bother with the price, as long as there exists a presumption that the price is trending up within the timeline of the investment, so if someone is investing in bitcoin 4-10 years or longer, then there is a bit of a presumption that bitcoin is trending upwards within that timeline - even though for sure there is no real ability to guarantee.. just to presume the odds are decently good.

Many of us know also that bitcoin is a bit of an assymetric bet to the upside so that the most that we are able to lose is 100% as long as we do not leverage, while at the same time there are decent potentials of large upside movements that make up for the possibilities for down and/or flat.
 

It tends to be fairly difficult for normies to be able to predict short term price directions, and more well off folks likely are hedging both directions and there may be some insiders that know how much capital that they might drop in various exchanges simultaneously and also coordinate various news dumps to try to manipulate the price, which may or may not end up working out.

At best we can try to assign some probabilities and also attempt to be prepared for either  price direction, even extremes that might end up playing out.


Even though this thread has buying the dip in it, we are NOT talking about trading here, so sure there can be advantages to being able to execute some buys and to get more BTC for the same amount of dollars.. yet if the investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer, it may not really make a whole hell of a lot of difference, and surely some guys are just able to buy each week and they may or may not be able to time their buys for dips, to the extent that the dips will make much if any material difference if a guy might be buying $100 per week for 52 weeks in a year and 520 weeks over 10 years, so sure several of the bitcoin buys in the earlier years may well could have had resulted in more sats per dollar yet it might not really make a large difference.

There could be some guys who are ONLY investing around 80% of their weekly amounts for regular buys and then save the other 20% for dips, yet it would seem a bit questionable whether those holding back value strategies would have been good ways to do things in the last few months while bitcoin has been largely below $100k since mid November.   

In other words a lot of the buying on the dip money may well could have already been largely used up in the past 3 months.


Of course, you have been registered since November 2015, so maybe you are more interested in dips, since you already bought a lot of bitcoin over the years, yet newer guy in their first year or two, they may well would have ONLY been exposed to prices between $47k and $126k, so in that sense we might now merely be in the middle of their buying range or maybe some of them are in the negative and just keeping on buying.


Each of us is at a different stage in our bitcoin journey, so surely there are folks who are buying no matter what, and there are others watching the price - even though many times it is not good to get preoccupied with short term price moves, and sure there are abilities to see advantages in short term BTC price moves, yet at the same time, if a guy is ongoingly buying on a weekly basis, the over all price is likely going to keep trending upwards, yet guys sometimes get into the mentality that they want to gamble with their bitcoin investment and to wait for prices that might not happen, yet if we are buying every week we might consider those buys to be significant in the beginning, yet if we had already been buying $100 per week for 2 years, then each new $100 invested is only right around 1/100th of the total size of the holdings, so each new purchase does not make a big difference... and if we look at the 200-WMA, we will see that the 4-year average is currently just below $58k, so we are right around $25k above that, which is that we are about 45% above the 4-year average price... which means if a person had been investing in bitcoin at a pretty steady rate for 4 years, his average price would be right around that $58k 200-WMA price.



I am trying to suggest that you engage in practices to control your own chosen exposure level to bitcoin rather than considering bitcoin as some kind of an outside uncontrollable force.

Yeah, we already know that bitcoin's prices are all over the place, and one of the greatest guarantees in bitcoin prices remains its volatility, even though we don't know the direction of the volatility (especially in the short term, and even the long term is not guaranteed.  So, essentially we need to choose our investment level in accordance with our own situation rather than wishing for some kind of a miracle to rescue us from our poverty.

If we put into good investment practices and cashflow management practices, we likely benefit from creating such structure for ourselves, even if we might also have some budget that allows for spontaneity too.



It seems to me that you need to work with what you got, and if you think that there might be some reasonable and/or feasible ways to increase your income and/or cut your expenses, then those can be positive developments.

Of course it may well be way the fuck better if you could get a job with 5x the income that you currently make, yet life does not tend to be so easy,  especially for poor people, so you have to figure out ways to work with what you got and if you can identify some ways to increase your income or to cross train into a new field that pays better, then those would be great things to figure out.. yet surely there are also some folks who might have already got pigeonholed into certian kinds of work or they might have age and/or health issues or even family responsibility issues that limit how much they would be able to cross train into some kind of a higher paid position... which still brings us back to the hard work of figuring out how to work with what you got and potentially getting some advantages from what you got, without  having to resort to trying to rob banks or some other thing that might not be good for your character or for your long term freedom of not getting locked up.



You going to just wish yourself into higher pay?  i doubt that is a very good plan.  Sometimes there is value in doing the hard work, and sometimes you might be able to develop some skills that might be marketable in your own efforts to organize yourself and your finances in better ways.


Of course, reducing expenses is part of the formula and increasing income is another part of the formula.  You do what you can, and surely I agree that it does seem like a good idea and good practices to be striving to protect your bitcoin.. so you might have some bitocin that is hot, some medium and some that are kept in cold storage, and yeah maybe the cold storage would be the part that would be desired to grow the most.. .and so there can sometimes be some challenges in regards to managing coins.. so maybe if a person is ONLY buying $30 per week and then keeping it on an exchange, then maybe every two or three months most if not all of those coins would be moved to a private wallet.. so then maybe after 3 months the amount invested would be around $400, and the current price might be up, down or sideways, but the transaction to send to a private wallet might happen every few months, and there is some comfort in holding coins in private wallets, even though at the same time there is responsibility not to lose them, too so there can be learning about private wallets and also learning about various options to keep back ups of private keys and choices about how to do it and your system might ONLY be shared with a limited number of people who you trust.


Ok.  Fair enough.  You may have had identified my contention with just picking a timeline since there are issues regarding how much bitcoin might cost during the time of investing and also  how much money we can put in, yet surely there might be some people who specifically have timelines that are based on something related to their work, so maybe they receive some benefits in regards to working up to a certain age, and so there might be attempts to work around those kinds of timeline, yet it would not necessarily give the whole answer - unless the person just told himself that "I am going to put as much as I can up until March 15, 2029, and then figure out where to go from there." .. so surely there might be some flexibility and even some ideas in terms of projecting out base case scenarios and  worse case and best case scenarios too.

I just have a bit of a problem to just blanketedly proclaim that everyone is picking a target date, sine that seems too inflexible, and likely does not conform with how people might plan.

There are likely some guys with jobs that are steady and expected to continue to be steady and there are likely other guys who have combinations of steady and unsteady jobs and then there are also likely guys who don't have steady jobs and some of them are really low paid and maybe a few others might have high paying jobs, even though the jobs are not frequent or steady.  So guys might attempt to plan around what they have been doing and expectations of what they might do in the future, and other guys might be hoping for or expecting promotions, which may or may not end up happening.

Guys get into bitcoin from where they are at and they may well be attempting to adapt how much bitcoin that they may be able to buy based on a combination of their income and expenses situation, and surely if guys are involved in their own business or they have a partner (or partners0 in the business so there could be complications related to finances, and they also might have family obligations with uncertain expenses and possibly even a partner who contributes and shares in income and/or expenses that might bring some complications too.. whether or not the family partner ends up sharing in the bitcoin investment there could be benefits in perhaps putting together separate accounts, and joint accounts and/or even accounts for a child (or more than one child).


Well, you are making the problem worse if you are suggesting that a person might have a target for 2 BTC and if he is just getting started versus if a person was targeting 2 BTC and he already has 1 BTC.

I find it problematic to be trying to set targets in terms of number of BTC too, except to the extent that a person might have some realistic ideas in regards to how he is going to get there, since the further we project out then the harder it becomes to figure out the goals in terms of BTC absent also having some expectations regarding how much dollars might be able to put into bitcoin.

If a person has an income that is around $50k per year and he is brand new to bitcoin, yet he had already been investing for around 10 years prior to coming to bitcoin (meaning that he has an existing investment portfolio that is in the ballpark of $75k, then he might be able to reasonably project getting to 2 BTC in 8 to 10 years.  Perhaps?  He would surely either need to front load his investment or plan to have a fairly high investment rate (perhaps in the neighborhood of 25% of his income or greater.

If the guy knows that he is able to invest 25% of his income, then he knows that every 4-ish years, then he may well would be able to invest 1 year's of his income into bitcoin, so he would have to be expecting to get raises, since even this guy investing $50k every 4 years, after $12 years, he would have had merely invested $150k into bitcoin, which it does not seem very plausible to expect that the average price per BTC would be oNLY $75k over 12 years - since he would be striving to get 2 BTC... so the front loading would have to be even more intense than 25% of his income invested every year, which is seeming harder to pull off.

Having realistic plans make sense, and if a guy had been earning $50k per year over the past 10 years, he better have some path to higher income expectations in order to be realistic in a plan to accumulate 2 BTC in the next 8-10 years.


I am not sure how realistic you are either.  I do think that if a person is able to try to dedicate to investing a certain percentage of his income (such as 25% per year), then maybe he could say that whatever his income is, he wants to try to be able to live off of his bitcoin at double the amount of his then current income in 12-15 years.. so then he would be putting the equivalent of his income into bitcoin every 4 years, so after 12 years, he would have had put 3 years of his income into bitcoin..., and sure he might need to be more flexible - especially if he is a brand new investor, yet if he is coming to bitcoin with already experience investing in other things, so then going back to the guy with an income of $50k yet he had built up $75k investment portfolio - yet part of his problem is that he was likely ONLY investing around 10% since if he had been investing 25% of his income historically, then in 10 years, he would have had invested $125k after 10 years, and presumptively the investment portfolio would have had gone up during tht time too... so after 10 years he might have an investment portfolio that is $200k or more.  So if he does not already have a track record of being able to invest at such a high rate (such as 25% of his income), then it might seem that he is not being realistic in term of making his goals realistic in terms of what he had been doing in the past.


Are you assuming the same thing as Kuchuku - Obulis? 

If a guy is already buying bitcoin every week, then you are saying that the guy also somehow magically has money available for buying the dip and buying more and more on the dip, besides what he had been buying every week for buying the dip?  He is not running out of money?

I am not saying that it is not possible to save money for buying the dip, yet I am saying that there are trade offs in doing such a thing, which means the  guys were holding back such money for bitcoin and/or for other purposes .. and then decides to use such money to buy the dip.. the money for buying the dip does not just magically appear out of the sky so guys have to figure out the extent to which they are already planning to do those kinds of things or to have money those kinds of dip buying purposes that is saved for other purposes, but then such money ends up getting repurposed to buy bitcoin.

I am not going to just presume money just shows up, and surely there could even be guys who have other investments or even some things that they purposefully choose to sell in order to generate more money based on dips, yet I am not going to presume that the money is just there without guys already accounting for the money being there.


You are probably correct to assert (or imply) that richer people and institutions have motivations that are similar to poor people, yet at the same time, if they have identified an investment they also might be engaging in a certain period of focused buying, whether such buying lasts for a few months or maybe it takes a bit longer for them to establish a stake.. yet some of the institutions are not concerned about the difference between $80k and $110k, even though surely anyone appreciates a discount, yet they still might be buying at any price for a certain period of time while they are establishing their initial stake.

Welp. To some extent the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other assets can be controlled by those who have a significant amount of the current supply on their hands, whales can set orders on exchanges, the so called red and green walls, in order to manipulate the price of a Bitcoin, prompting people to sell or buy Bitcoin.

There are several videos on YouTube about it, on how whales make use of their holdings to manipulate and influence on the market so they can win money in the long term, those case of Polymarket would be just another tool on their tool set for them to capitalize their influence.

Provably it is, since its hard to get an accurate insights on crypto since no one can predict the possible price movement of those coins.

So this is huge luck on the side of player and he win all of his bets, maybe it may require some little skills since who know that bettor know how to read the charts. But for sure this is just luck and its just coincidence that he win all of his bets made.

So I doubt he have insider info on crypto bets, but if he place bet on sports maybe we can assume that he have.

And it’s not just Bitcoin either, there are altcoins involved and even sports bets. So yeah, you’re right, there’s no way this can be manipulated that easily, the guy is either really good or just one of those lucky ones.

That’s already one month of profit. If this keeps going for another month, then you can safely say the user actually knows what he’s doing, at that point Poly would basically be his playground for making easy money. 

Of course, the guys are in slightly different situations based on the first example being brand new to both bitcoin and investing and the second example being brand new to bitcoin but not brand new to investing ....

And part of my point was to attempt to get Menele001 to be more specific in his discussion rather than just rambling out some random ideas about what guys are supposedly supposed to do.


Sure, the second guy has his discretionary income (which, for the sake of ease of presentation, is the same as the first guy) and the second guy also has funds that he could potentially consider to allocate into bitcoin.
 

Well, if the second guy had been investing for 10 years and reached 1.5x his current salary, then historically he had probably averaged putting at least 10% of his income into his investments.
 

That seems pretty risky to put 100% of discretionary funds into bitcoin.  You know the two other categories are consume and save... So there are 3 ways that discretionary funds can be spent.
 

Your categories of emergency fund and reserve funds are both savings (two kinds of back up funds), so they are largely the same category.. even though I don't object to your allocation quantities.  The consumption proportion of 10% seems a bit small in terms of practicality, even though sure it might work, since each of us has to figure out what is financially and psychologically comfortable for our own situation and what we believe might come up and even including considering how much time there might be between paychecks... Of course, there might also be certain monthly bills that come due on a certain date of the month.
 

It is not guaranteed that they will win, even though they can come up with decent ways of managing their money that will help them to improve their chances of "winning.".. and yeah, maybe we frequently can proclaim that even in the process of organizing our finances, we already create situations in which we are already winning because we create situations in which we have options in regards to financial matters because ideally with the passage of time our bitcoin holdings become larger and also our back up funds likely become larger too... even though it could be that once our back up funds get to a certain level, we might focus more on building our bitcoin, as you had mentioned, gracreavix.


You talk like a shitcoiner Obulis.

Diversification is likly a tool to preserve your wealth rather than grow it.. which is part of the reason that many of us suggest to start out with bitcoin and dollars first, and then consider diversifying later.  It may be healthy to consider diversification in relation to bitcoin as a way of diversifying the cash portion of your holdings rather than the bitcoin portion... since the longer that we are in bitcoin, the larger and larger we may want our back up funds to be so that we never have to dip into our bitcoin at a time that is not of our choosing, yet when cash starts to get to 5-6 months or more, it might start to feel like some of that value could up getting put to work and still serving as back up funds, but performing better than the dollar since the dollar (and all other fiat) is known to be ongoingly being debased.



Your use of the term diversification makes it sound like you don't know what you are talking about.



Don't many of us ongoingly suggest that one of the most important things in bitcoin is get the fuck started, especially once you know that you have discretionary funds.  The example shows that the guy has discretionary funds, yet you want to be so retarded as to believe that some value comes from building back up funds?  He already has $1k in back up funds, which is 66% of his monthly expenses. In this example, his back up funds are not zero, yet his bitcoin is zero.



You sound retarded.

The guy has $1k per month in discretionary funds, so how much of that do you want him to put into his back up funds?  If he puts $500 a month into his back up funds, then it is going to take him right around 7 months for his back up funds to reach 3 months of his expenses.  You want the guy to fuck around building dollars for 7 months?  

From my perspective you seem to have a bit of a lack of understanding of what is bitcoin, and sure of course, people can do what they like.  We have a lot of poor people who are always saving up cash, and guess what happens, they never stop being poor since their building up of their cash tends to debase about as fast as they are building it up, especially once it starts to get to larger quantities that might be more than 2-3 months of their expenses.

We tend to still suggest building up back up funds to be more than 3 months of expenses, yet I think that part of the presumption is that such back up funds are being built up at the side of building up of a bitcoin investment, so in the context of bitcoin, the back up funds are serving purposes of protecting the bitcoin - even though the back up funds are likely ongoingly being debased.. which is not fair.. but since the back up funds are likely being kept in our local currency.. they are both liquid and not volatile in terms of being able to be used to pay various of our expenses that might come up in event of loss of income and/or increase in expenses.


Well.  He has $1k per month of discretionary income, so you want him to put all of it in bitcoin? What about discretionary consumption?  What about the $45k that he had already built up?  What is he going to do about that?  Do you want him to continue to build the $7,500 of his back up funds or to just maintain the $7,500 at that level?


That sounds like a pretty intense plan in terms of  not diversifying, even though I am not sure what you mean by accumulating 60% of his bitcoin portfolio.

Are you suggesting that if, for example, the guy had a bitcoin portfolio size target to be able to live off of bitcoin at $80k per year, then right now he would need 13.8277 BTC, so then if right now he were to have at least 8.3 BTC, then at that point he could start to diversify - and it would not be recommended for him to diversify before reaching that level.

By the way, it seems to me that a guy who right now has 8.3 BTC, he would not need to accumulate any more bitcoin and by mid 2028 (in my updated not posted projection table), the guy would have enough to start to withdraw at $80k per year... .so, in other words, 60% of the way there gets a guy within right around 2.5-ish years from being at his goal without even having to stack any more sats (of course there could be a bit of variance in the specifics of the projections which is sometimes part of the rationale to overshoot so that mistakes are not made and cushions are in place).

I personally think that the building up the back up funds likely serve as a better reference, yet I am also not sure when diversification might be allowed to start, including maybe if a guy had already put 1-2 years of his income (or maybe his target income) into bitcoin... then at that point he might be able to start to slow down in his BTC accumulation intensity.. which allows diversification into other investments.


You are lacking a lot of specifics in regards to this second guy.  The second guy has absolutely no bitcoin, and you can't tell him what to do?   You seem to be just suggesting in fairly vague ways that such guy can invest aggressively into bitcoin?  What does that mean with specifics?  

The reason that I gave these examples was in order to attempt to inspire guys try to grapple with specific situations or maybe to create their own specific situations that describe staring points and how to proceed with such starting points, which tends to justify that guys might need to attempt to be more specific in their descriptions about how to proceed.

Of course the second guy has more flexibility in what he can do based on his having had already built up an investment portfolio and built up his back up funds, yet he still doesn't have any BTC and he is 10 years older than the first guy, too... so he does not have as much time to build up his bitcoin holdings and/or other aspects of his investment portfolio as compared with the first guy.  Where do you think that the second guy wants to be by the time he is in his 50s or in his 60s? presuming that potentially he is able to keep his job for a bit more time while he is building the bitcoin portion of his investment portfolio.


I appreciate some aspect of your spunk, Frankolala - yet there is something off about your suggestion.  

You are suggesting 80% or 90% put into bitcoin and 10% or 20% into back up funds, yet at the same time, you are suggesting  discretionary consumption is 0% and you also seem to presume that the back up funds just automatically build themselves, even though you are ONLY suggesting to put 10% to 20% of the discretionary funds into them for 3-ish months?  That's ridiculous.

Think about it.  Currently, the guy ONLY has $1k in his back up funds, and if he wants to get his back up funds up to 3 months of his expenses, then the total is going to be $4,500 for his back up funds.  So even if we were to split the baby and consider that you might be saying to put 15% of the discretionary funds into the back up funds, then that is $150 per months, and it is going to take 23.33 months to build those back up funds an additional $3,5000 (that is $3,500/$150).

Another thing is you are completely silent on discretionary consumption. Do you expect the guy to be completely deprived of discretionary consumption?  That does not sound healthy for his psychology.  It sounds unrealistic.  To attempt to be realistic and even sustainable, for everyone, even those tight-wad curmudgeons, there needs to be some budget for discretionary consumption.


So you are suggesting that he invest 100% of his discretionary funds into bitcoin, and just keep his back up funds at $7,500 forever and ever?  What about the $45,000 that he has already built up?  Just leave that?  Continue to build it? or cash it out and reallocate it into bitcoin?

By the way, I did not say anything about the second guy having any business as both you and Merit.s seemed to have had plugged that additional dynamic into that hypothetical. I mentioned that the guy has a $30k per year income (just like the first guy) and that he had built up an investment of $45k - presumptively something like stocks or some assets that are somewhat liquid even though I did not specify beyond saying that they were prior to his getting involved in bitcoin.  

All slots are taken! The current block number is 934338, and the winner will be determined at block 934348 using Bitmover 🎉

Thank you for joining and best of luck!

Mainly because of my free time. I become busy last year on my work which is why I developed a laziness on availing bonus that has huge wagering requirements since it consumes a lot of time to complete while it usually ended up with bust before I even complete the wagering requirements.

depends on the bonus code. the ones i claimed so far gave me between $5 and $30, and i'm not even an active player.
[/quote]

Thanks, I appreciate the info.


Oh. I rarely visit the game and rounds board but that’s great since you can withdraw it immediately. It’s interesting to see that board is already profitable for users.

Oficialmente, só a Dinamarca disse que iria vender todo a divida dos EUA que detém.
https://neofeed.com.br/economia/fundo-de-pensao-da-dinamarca-vende-titulos-do-tesouro-e-liga-alerta-de-acao-da-europa-contra-os-eua/

Agora, podem até nem vender, mas se pararem de comprar, complicam um pouco a vida aos EUA.

This afaik only happens if the UTXO was already spent in a previous block, i.e. the "spending transaction" was already confirmed by a miner.

The real difficulty for nodes is to know to order double spends occurring in the same block. Let's imagine we have transaction X spending the same UTXO than transaction Y, and both are created only few milliseconds one after another. Let's say the person trying to double spend wants to damage a person or service in Australia who accepts 0-confirmation transactions, so they broadcast transaction X targeting specifically several nodes in Australia, hoping that the victim sees it first. At the same time they broadcast double spend Y to nodes close to many mining pools, e.g. in the US. So the Australian potential victim node "sees" transaction X and discards transaction Y, but most US miners do the opposite and include transaction Y instead, because they didn't see in their UTXO set that transaction X happened (as it is still unconfirmed and they received it after transaction Y).

As this is something that can happen all the time due to the latency between different networks (and more so if they're far away one from another, like in the example) I believe nodes won't ban another node for trying to broadcast an unconfirmed double spend. They simply check if the transaction is consistent with their own UTXO set, and if not, they discard it.

Of course this "attack" is very unlikely to succeed, because it is unlikely that somebody really accepts a 0 confirmation transaction, and latency issues tend to improve with network speed. But it shows that the "chain state" and thus the "UTXO set" are always a local phenomenon, and all nodes manage it independently. This means in double spend cases nodes can't really see which transaction is the "valid" one, until a miner includes and thus confirms one of both transactions.

oh its in this update- both BJ and dice are finished. we're finishing up other random stuff.

🎉 Attention friends, a new raffle has just been announced, take part in this exciting event!

• 👑 CoinRoyale 💰 Bitcoin Block Dice 💰 Prize 1 mBTC! 👑

➥ Pick a SLOT!
➥ The winner will receive a Prize 1 mBTC! 🎁
➥ After selecting a block, we will use bitmover’s tool to determine the winner!

Don't miss the opportunity to be part of this event and compete for the prize! Take part in the contest, test your luck!



Good luck to all participants!

Introducing CoinRoyale - the original Provably Fair Bitcoin Casino since 2013, and still the best place to play Provably Fair Blackjack, Baccarat, Video Poker, Dice, Roulette, Slots and Sports Betting. You can play on your mobile phone, as well as place bets using the telegram bot. Have a good game friends! 👑

• Rules/Prizes

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ The winner will receive a Prize of 0.001 BTC. 🎁
➥ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool for a fair and transparent draw!

01 -
02 -
03 -
04 -
05 -
06 -
07 -
08 -
09 -
10 -

• Example

Não é bem só por causa da Rússia.

Alguns países europeus, começaram agora a ameaçar e vender as bonds da divida publica dos EUA, por causa da ideia da Groenlândia e das questões das taxas contra a UE.
Finalmente, os países da Europa, perceberam que para "combater" as novas ideias dos EUA, não se pode ir com palavras. Tem de se ir com aquilo que lhes pode incomodar.

Dois artigos sobre o tema:
https://www.rfi.fr/br/europa/20260122-t%C3%ADtulos-da-d%C3%ADvida-americana-o-trunfo-dos-europeus-que-preocupa-donald-trump
https://www.dn.pt/opiniao/venda-se-as-obrigaes-do-tesouro-dos-eua

No final de contas, se o Trump começa a ser hostil com todos os países que até a data tem sido parceiros dos EUA, e esses país deixarem de comprar divida publica EUA e venderem a que tem, onde os EUA irão financiar-se? 

CCE.Cash на платформе BitList: https://bitlist.co/service/cce-cash

---

Кст, CCE.Cash здесь на форуме проводит регулярные бесплатные розыгрыши с призовыми в BTC:

Are you claiming the no deposit bonus sent via email or this giveaway is exclusive on Bitcoitalk game and rounds?

I still don’t claim those bonus emails since I don’t want to deal with high wagering requirements which I’m struggling to complete in the past. What game you are playing to complete the wagering requirements?

Also how much bonus reward you can get?

Antigamente era um pouco assim. Mas, no sentido físico do metal.

Mas, hoje em dia, já não é tanto assim. Quem lida com investimentos, consegue comprar/vender frações desses metais (em papel) e investir o que quiser.

O que acontece é que a Prata é um ativo com um risco maior, como Bitmover disse. Ele sobe e desce rapidamente.
Quem comprou ontem na queda, hoje já está a ganhar, vende e sai lucrando. Então, para quem gosta de maior adrenalina nos investimento, é um ativo para isso.

Já o ouro consegue ser mais estável, mesmo com quedas e subidas, tem por norma uma tendencia de subida, tornando-se um ativo com menos risco.

Sim. Foi o Temer que criou e o Mito que implantou.
Monitoram todo mundo.
Todo mundo sendo rastreado. O Lules vai taxar todo mundo. O Estado malvadão vai ferrar com todo mundo.
Esses "cumunistas" são infernais.

Poxa vida, e a gente aqui perdendo tempo com o Bitcoin

Desculpem minha ignorancia sincera, mas eu sempre vi que a prata está pro ouro  da mesma forma que o ethereum está pro bitcoin, então quando eu vejo o gráfico do ouro subindo loucamente, só consigo pensar....
Quem não tem grana pro ouro vai na prata, será que não?


Não sei qual é a facilidade de se comprar ouro (papéis) e quantidade minima hoje em dia (nunca comprei), mas a prata seria mais acessível pra quem quer investir e a companhar essa valorização de um metal nobre?
Ou então diversificação? Quem compra ouro poem também algo na prata da mesma forma que a gente faz nas criptos também?

It's been exactly 2 years (time flies) since Leo's last activity here, I don't think it's necessary to say anything about him. I even think that the title "Hero of good" should be excluded from this voting and assigned to him forever


LoyceV has an immeasurable contribution to this forum, it would be really unfair if I didn't put him in at least one category. Tryninja, with its tools, also makes it easier for us to use the forum.
hugeblack,


There are still quality names for this category, but unfortunately, only 3 suggestions are allowed. I don't have a special reason why these members, but I know that I always pay attention to their posts.


Unfortunately, I don't see a single significant event from last year on the forum. Last year's Community Awards is the only thing that happened worth paying attention to


I think I'm voting for Bitlist for 2024 as well, but I'm repeating myself because there was a serious upgrade in 2025, and the service is starting to take on a serious role.
In a bunch of very similar new services, exchanges, etc. Bridgoro, as a new p2p platform, seems very promising and offers a much-needed solution. I expect serious expansion this year


Maybe not the Discovery of the 2025 Year, but certainly an important member of the forum for years. We discussed several times via PM, really nice guy


holydarkness really put a lot of effort into mediating between users and casinos. Quite a demanding job, and it's good to have someone like that on the forum.
lovesmayfamilis, has become synonymous with scammer recognition and has been doing so for years. I guess it helps to keep the forum clean.


A true professional, he took forum marketing to another level.


Pmalek has a very generous merit in the local section, that man is present everywhere.
katanic97, the one who is really trying, as shown by his serious rank upgrade last year.
The Croatian board would not be the same without slackovic. He seriously dominates the local board, and his absence is easily noticed for the shortest period of time.


After so many years, we finally found out the well-kept secret behind this account. I like smart girls, so LauraV must be pretty enough to be a miss.

SmartGold01, Just because I know that she's a girl whose husband didn't know until recently that she occasionally visits casinos.

Maybe you want to be more specific in regards to how a guy might feel comfortable staying only in bitcoin and cash?

Let's take a snapshot of a guy with an income of $30k per year ($2,500 per week) at various points in time (I am keeping the income the same for simplicity purposes).  Expenses $1,500 per month.  He is investing around $100 per week and perhaps putting similar amounts into his various back up funds.  His goal is to be able to sustainably withdraw $80k per year from his bitcoin (2.5x his current income)

First 2 months investing (Started December 2025):  Invested into Bitcoin:  $1k    Spot value of 0.01 bitcoin $890 (200 WMA value: $577)    Back up funds:  $1.5k

First 10 months investing (Started March 2025):  Invested into Bitcoin:  $4.8k    Spot value of 0.048 bitcoin $4,600  (200 WMA value: $2,780)  Back up funds:  $3k

First 2 years investing (Started January 2024):  Invested into Bitcoin:  $11k    Spot value of 0.132 bitcoin $12k (200 WMA value: $7,622)   Back up funds:  $4.5k

First 4 years investing (Started January 2022):  Invested into Bitcoin:  $22k    Spot value of 0.54 bitcoin $48k (200 WMA value: $31,200)   Back up funds:  $7k

First 6 years investing (Started January 2020):  Invested into Bitcoin:  $33k    Spot value of 1.2 bitcoin $107k (200 WMA value: $69,290)   Back up funds:  $9k

First 8 years investing (Started January 2018):  Invested into Bitcoin:  $42k    Spot value of 2.8 bitcoin $250k  (200 WMA value: $161,672)  Back up funds:  $12k

First 10 years investing (Started January 2016):  Invested into Bitcoin:  $53k    Spot value of 15.26 bitcoin $1.36  million (200 WMA value: $881,110)   Back up funds:  $15k

I calculated the above numbers from
1) https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/dollar-cost-averaging-calculator
and
2) https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

In the above examples, going by the 200-WMA, the guy reached his overaccumulation status around 10 years (since right now the bare minimum to sustain an $80k per year income would be 13.8554), yet I would think that he might start to get anxious to start to diversify his over all investment portfolio around year 4-ish... since with the passage of time, the amount of his back up funds are getting larger and larger and larger, and anything above 3 months of  his expenses for his emergency funds is his reserve funds.  

The answers are not obvious and folks are going to differ in how they deal with matters and the extent to which they want their extra cash to be working in some diversified location rather than just sitting in cash.. and even on a personal level I have become less worried about holding a lot of cash (especially when I consider it as downside insurance) as compared with when I was in my earlier years of bitcoin accumulation.  

Another thing that might be noticed from the above examples is that it can feel like it is taking a long time to make progress in terms of getting to overaccumulation status.. yet the there is a cumulating and compounding effects that seem to tend to cause a lot of growth as the investment continues to grow (exponential?  perhaps not, but still)..

É 70mil bitcoins de compra direta

Esse volume é de compra e venda com pessoas que fazem trade, se eu compro 1 BTC e vendo com 1% de lucro já foi 2 BTC de volume. Imagina varias pessoas e bots fazendo isso o dia todo e com alavancagem ainda

Раффл от CCE.Cash: ♻️ CCE.Cash 🎁 FREE RAFFLE 🎁 $30 in BTC!



Правила/Призы


*Вы можете выбрать 2 слота, если оставляли комментарии в ANN CCE.Cash до анонса раффла (за последние 2 недели)
Для определения победителя будет использоваться инструмент http://bitcoindata.science/giveaway-manager/

Свободные места:

CCE.Cash is a Fast Automatic Exchange accepting .Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, XMR, TRX, USDT., etc. Users can quickly and anonymously complete currency exchange without registering. Its core features are: automation, simplicity, and security. A simple 2-step guide will help you quickly get familiar with the functionality.

• Rules/Prizes:

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ The winner will receive a prize of $30 in BTC 🎁
➥ You can choose 2 SLOTS if you posted comments in the ANN topic before the raffle announcement draw in the last 2 weeks.
➥ After selecting a block, we will use the Bitmover tool to determine the winner.

01 -
02 -
03 -
04 -
05 -
06 -
07 -
08 -
09 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
21 -
22 -
23 -
24 -
25 -
26 -
27 -
28 -
29 -
30 -
31 -
32 -
33 -
34 -
35 -
36 -
37 -
38 -
39 -
40 -
41 -
42 -
43 -
44 -
45 -
46 -
47 -
48 -
49 -
50 -
51 -
52 -
53 -
54 -
55 -
56 -
57 -
58 -
59 -
60 -

• Application:

A Tesla, mineradoras, exchanges, etc não porque é só parte da reserva.. mas essas outras (Strategy, Metaplanet, etc) sim porque é a estratégia deles.. mas ao contrário da Oranje, acho que nunca ficaram com mNAV abaixo de 1 até agora (e ai continuam emitindo mais ações para comprar mais BTC).

Oranje é o maior exemplo.. passaram o mês recomprando ações porque o mNAV estava abaixo de 1:

https://x.com/ORANJEBTC/status/2015756631598911568
https://x.com/ORANJEBTC/status/2013215690254115060
https://x.com/ORANJEBTC/status/2010685166415474854
https://x.com/ORANJEBTC/status/2008148863736045580

Mas pelo que vi, eles não estão vendendo Bitcoin para fazer essas recompras de ações.. vou assistir um vídeo do CEO para entender a estratégia que estão usando.

Les amis, au cas où vous l'auriez manqué, la section jeux et parties regorge de nouveaux concours. 😄

Hi! Kung sakaling napalampas mo ito, ang seksyon ng mga laro at round ay puno ng mga bagong paligsahan. 😊

Ludzie, postanowiłem podzielić się z Wami nowym konkursem od Whale! 😊

Salut tuturor! Whale tocmai a postat un nou concurs. Mult succes! 😜

Guys, In case you missed it, the games and rounds section is full of new contests. 😄

En caso de que se lo hayan perdido: en la sección de “Juegos y Rondas” hay un montón de nuevos concursos. 😜

Falls ihr ihn verpasst habt: Im Bereich „Spiele und Runden“ gibt es jede Menge neue Wettbewerbe. 😜

Olá pessoal! Caso tenham perdido, o board Games and Rounds está cheio de concursos dO wHALE.

✨ We are pleased to announce that an exciting new raffle is launching and we invite you to take part in it!

• 🐳 Whale.io 🎁 FREE RAFFLE 🎁 Prize 50$!

1️⃣ Pick a slot! You can choose 2 SLOTS if you have shared a screenshot of your bets in the ANN Thread in the last 2 weeks.
2️⃣ 2 Winners, will share a prize of $50 in Free Bets! 🎁
3️⃣ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool to determine the winners.



Become a winner with Whale 🐳

🐳 Whale.io is a cutting-edge Casino & Sportsbook platform, supporting .TON, SOL, USDT & Bitcoin.. Our distinctive feature is fast payments and no withdrawal fees, except for transaction costs, which vary depending on network load. Good luck with your predictions.  

• Rules/Prizes

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ 2 Winners, will share a prize of $50 in Free Bets! 🎁
➥ You can choose 2 SLOTS if you have shared a screenshot of your bets in the ANN Thread in the last 2 weeks. 🐳
➥ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool for a fair and transparent draw / We reserve the right to ignore any participant.

01 -
02 -
03 -
04 -
05 -
06 -
07 -
08 -
09 -
10 -
11 -
12 -
13 -
14 -
15 -
16 -
17 -
18 -
19 -
20 -
21 -
22 -
23 -
24 -
25 -
26 -
27 -
28 -
29 -
30 -
31 -
32 -
33 -
34 -
35 -
36 -
37 -
38 -
39 -
40 -
41 -
42 -
43 -
44 -
45 -
46 -
47 -
48 -
49 -
50 -

🎉 Hello, everyone! An exciting new raffle is here, and we’re happy to invite you to join!

✅ AML Bot [FREE RAFFLE] 🎯 100 free AML checks 🔍

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ The winner will receive a package including 100 free AML checks ^{[https://t.me/btc_aml_bot]} 🎁
➥ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool for a fair and transparent draw!



Good luck to all participants!

@btc_aml_bot — is a simple and convenient AML checker for Bitcoin transactions. Don't risk sending coins to exchanges or other services if you're unsure of their origin, otherwise you could lose everything. Comprehensive reports, fast, secure, and reasonably priced. Your first scan is FREE!

• Rules:

➥ Pick a SLOT! 🎯
➥ The winner will receive a package including 100 free AML checks ^{[https://t.me/btc_aml_bot]} 🎁
➥ Once a block is selected, we will use bitmover’s tool for a fair and transparent draw!

01 -
02 -
03 -
04 -
05 -
06 -
07 -
08 -
09 -
10 -

• Application:

Few years ago I started making yearly overview of the local board activity as a way to compare the progress (or regress), and time has come for 2025 overview.  All charts and table are made using data from @DdmrDdmr Merit Dashboard and BitList.

Communities marked with * (Pakistan, Bengali) don't have their own local boards yet, but I hope that's something that will change this year.

---

Post activity per local board during 2025

During the last year, 161066 posts were made across local boards that are part of this overview, which is a considerable 15% decrease compared to 2024 (192417 posts). Its no surprise that Nigerian local board ended up at the top, followed by Russian and Turkish local boards, while at the same time, Romanian, Greek and Polish are once again at the far left part of the chart.

Also, it is obvious from the chart that majority of local boards had decreased activity, while only a few like Nigerian, Pilipinas and Croatian had a decent growth.

---

Active members per local board during 2025

During 2025, 5154 members wrote at least 1 post in one of the local boards, which is negligent decrease compared to 2024's number (5188). Surprising thing though is that Russian board leads this chart and not Nigerian, and by quite some margin.

---

Local board members per amount of posts during 2025

Another chart that shows how many active members each board had during the last year, but this one is more detailed and shows the how many of each type of posters boards have, giving us the better picture of local boards.

So, for example, even though Russian board has double the amount of members that Nigerian board has, the latter has much stronger "core" group of members that wrote 100+ posts during the above mentioned period.

---

Merit shared per local board during 2025

Given the increase of merit sources across local boards, no surprise that almost all local boards had increased number of merit sent, compared to 2024. So, during the last year, 89244 merit was sent, compared to 2024's 75339 merit.

The one that obviously sticks out is Nigerian local that more than doubled the number of merit sent, and Croatian local that had ~150% increase owing it mainly to a few new very active members

---

Merit/Post ratio per local board during 2025

Given the overall decrease of the number of posts written and increase of merit sent, no surprise that average meriit per post ratio during 2025 was 0.55, noticeable increased compared to 2024's 0.42 merit per post.

---

Percentage of merited posts across local boards during 2025

As you can see, differences here are pretty huge, even among the local boards of the similar size. So, Romanian as the least active local board has the highest percentage of merietd posts, while at the same time the 3rd least active local board (Greek) has the lowest percentage of merited posts.

---

Merit senders and receivers per local board during 2025

During the last year, 1385 members sent while 1788 received merit, which is similar to 2024 numbers ( 1337 senders and 1388 receivers). I have to say that I expected much bigger numbers, considering the increase of merit sent.

---

Merit per transaction across local boards during 2025

Its surprising to see Greek board with the highest merit per tx, since they have one of the lowest merit per post ratios. then again, in 2024 they had the highest merit per tx so I guess members there prefer to send merit there in bulk.

---

The most active members per local board during 2025

And for the end of the last year's overview, top 10 active members per local board. For the 4th year in a row leader is joker_josue from Portuguese board with 1948 posts, while 2nd and 3rd spot goes to two members from Russian local, klarki (1704) and Julien_Olynpic (1552). Gj guys, keep it up!

Russian	|	German	|	Turkish	|	Italian	|	Portuguese	|	Spanish	|
_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|
1. klarki [1704]	|	1. MaxMueller [1132]	|	1. mandown [1397]	|	1. Ale88 [770]	|	1. joker_josue [1948]	|	1. famososMuertos [740]	|
2. Julien_Olynpic [1552]	|	2. Lakai01 [877]	|	2. execijutiere [991]	|	2. fillippone [698]	|	2. bitmover [1088]	|	2. Don Pedro Dinero [478]	|
3. jokers10 [1171]	|	3. cygan [745]	|	3. yenerbatmaz [788]	|	3. babo [654]	|	3. TryNinja [898]	|	3. darxiaomi [398]	|
4. zasad@ [1040]	|	4. Real-Duke [708]	|	4. Mustang Shelby [712]	|	4. giorgione [523]	|	4. sabotag3x [622]	|	4. Porfirii [383]	|
5. Alex077 [908]	|	5. MinoRaiola [692]	|	5. blomen [682]	|	5. Plutosky [455]	|	5. alegotardo [581]	|	5. Hispo [350]	|
6. Numeral [904]	|	6. Soonandwaite [660]	|	6. ajanwalker [648]	|	6. xenomorfo [410]	|	6. Forsyth Jones [473]	|	6. darbitmobilerecovery [253]	|
7. safar1980 [833]	|	7. Koal-84 [588]	|	7. Silence Scream [537]	|	7. Lillominato89 [379]	|	7. Pumared [453]	|	7. danadc [161]	|
8. xandry [755]	|	8. Unknown01 [530]	|	8. Black Mbaye [523]	|	8. gbianchi [339]	|	8. rdluffy [423]	|	8. Hagart [137]	|
9. Etranger [577]	|	9. willi9974 [501]	|	9. W Jr. [515]	|	9. conilmionome [328]	|	9. tg88 [385]	|	9. seoincorporation [127]	|
10. eisen33 [560]	|	10. mole0815 [475]	|	10. eightdots [504]	|	10. bastisisca [306]	|	10. criptoevangelista [369]	|	10. sausalitox [124]	|

Indonesian	|	French	|	Pilipinas	|	Croatian	|	Nigerian	|	Arabic	|
_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|
1. Chikito [432]	|	1. patrickus [266]	|	1. gunhell16 [457]	|	1. slackovic [442]	|	1. Charles-Tim [778]	|	1. Kavelj22 [371]	|
2. mu_enrico [365]	|	2. Becassine [211]	|	2. Peanutswar [433]	|	2. katanic97 [428]	|	2. Floxynice [451]	|	2. khaled0111 [307]	|
3. punk.zink [278]	|	3. Danydee [205]	|	3. blockman [398]	|	3. ovcijisir [352]	|	3. Jubilee58 [350]	|	3. yhiaali3 [305]	|
4. joniboini [271]	|	4. Saint-loup [142]	|	4. cryptoaddictchie [385]	|	4. Pmalek [346]	|	4. Joy- maker [342]	|	4. GxSTxV [120]	|
5. MAAManda [254]	|	5. G.Seed [105]	|	5. Mr. Magkaisa [335]	|	5. Rikafip [336]	|	5. Africolo [339]	|	5. satoshyat.team [102]	|
6. Luzin [253]	|	6. paid2 [95]	|	6. bhadz [315]	|	6. examplens [232]	|	6. Tonimez [332]	|	6. OmegaStarScream [77]	|
7. abhiseshakana [228]	|	7. yohannc [44]	|	7. tech30338 [298]	|	7. btcltcdigger [227]	|	7. Makus [326]	|	7. BADERO [76]	|
8. jcojci [209]	|	8. GrosWesh [36]	|	8. arwin100 [286]	|	8. dkbit98 [196]	|	8. Yablee0 [320]	|	8. hugeblack [71]	|
9. Husna QA [209]	|	9. Halab [33]	|	9. GreatArkansas [277]	|	9. Trofo [194]	|	9. Mate2237 [314]	|	9. Ochan_yazo_tochant [69]	|
10. maydna [195]	|	10. oscar2000 [32]	|	10. Fredomago [261]	|	10. cryptofrka [182]	|	10. Mpamaegbu [308]	|	10. albon [53]	|

Polish	|	Indian	|	Greek	|	Romanian	|	Pakistan*	|	Bengali*	|
_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|	_________________	|
1. cygan [242]	|	1. Bitcoin Smith [357]	|	1. Ultegra134 [125]	|	1. GazetaBitcoin [203]	|	1. qurbanshah02 [723]	|	1. DYING_S0UL [219]	|
2. pawel7777 [73]	|	2. JSRAW [272]	|	2. cryptosize [112]	|	2. NeuroticFish [91]	|	2. JunaidAzizi [414]	|	2. Bd officer [204]	|
3. Tytanowy Janusz [41]	|	3. pawanjain [198]	|	3. condoras [97]	|	3. TryNinja [18]	|	3. ZAINmalik75 [330]	|	3. Crypto Library [192]	|
4. wwzsocki [40]	|	4. TheUltraElite [139]	|	4. alani123 [61]	|	4. othell_rogue [5]	|	4. Cheema02 [309]	|	4. Nothingtodo [127]	|
5. TryNinja [18]	|	5. IIrik11 [108]	|	5. BlackHatCoiner [54]	|	5. MJWALK [5]	|	5. MusaPk [275]	|	5. God Of Thunder [103]	|
6. stafstor [7]	|	6. LucyFurr [66]	|	6. apogio [37]	|	6. IonCreanga [4]	|	6. GbitG [243]	|	6. Z_MBFM [97]	|
7. EXMON [6]	|	7. libert19 [60]	|	7. Makis Kotzampasis [11]	|	7. UsdtBucuresti [4]	|	7. Rustam Meraj [194]	|	7. Shishir99 [91]	|
8. ertil [5]	|	8. M47AK16 [47]	|	8. Dimitris [8]	|	8. jedaite [3]	|	8. UmerIdrees [192]	|	8. Mahiyammahi [81]	|
9. stwenhao [5]	|	9. henry1111 [42]	|	9. BitcoinsGreece [6]	|	9. mihaybus [3]	|	9. Publictalk792 [184]	|	9. Review Master [78]	|
10. aaaaa1221 [4]	|	10. henmark [40]	|	10. coctailnuts [6]	|	10. Nzbindexer [3]	|	10. ThemePen [169]	|	10. LDL [63]	|

Eu também concordo, desde que comecei a usar gerenciador de senhas, nunca mais precisei me preocupar em como criar senhas fortes, eu vou deixar a minha recomendação aqui: Keepass2 para Windows e KeepassXC para Linux.

Para android tem o KeepassDX e para iOS tem o Keepassium, OneKeepass e o Strongbox, eu uso esse último, tenho a versão PRO vitalícia dele, pague acho que R$250 pelo aplicativo nele e uso todas as funções premium dele, é um aplicativo muito bonito, já tem o glass liquid do iphone, que deixa qualquer App com uma interface lindíssima e moderna, tem versão dele pra MacOS também.

Vantagens de um gerenciador de senhas offline: salvo localmente, pode ser compartilhado na sua conta nuvem e ser acessado de qualquer dispositivo (não precisa ser o mesmo software, basta ter suporte ao aquivo .kbdx), é open source.

@joker_josue o ruim de usar essas cadernetas de senhas, basta alguma pessoa invadir a sua casa pra ela ter acesso a todas as suas senhas de mão beijada, sem nenhuma criptografia, com acesso a logins e senhas.
Há também um password books, ele diz ter folhas duráveis a prova de águas, resistentes a rasgos.

Nele há folhas dedicadas para anotar seed phrases de até 24 palavras, chaves privadas e chaves privadas criptografadas (provavelmente BIP38), aqui no brasil fica muito caro pra importar, eu não curto muito essas coisas, sou muito mais em softwares de password managers, mas se quiser checar, segue o link: https://shieldfolio.com/products/shieldfolio-stonebook