I am with you somewhat. It looks to me, like over the last 15 years, the cycles have gone from being mind-bendingly polar to a little bit softer each time.

And I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't go down to $25-30k this time.

In fact, I would be a little shocked if we did.  I think there's a better chance we start seeing smaller waves both in their amplitude and in their duration.

Which is the Hopium that I'm snorting right now to help me feel calm in a little pullback...

Then you have the fundamental stuff which for Bitcoin is really its own health as a network and then the environment of the global macroeconomic world.

In those two, we are seeing a whole lot more chaos, honestly.

The narratives this season are pretty crazy.  

You've got the whole Tempest in a teapot / existential crisis in bitcoin.  
You have big leaders all over the earth marching the entire planet into war.  
We are seemingly at the top of a technological renaissance.
The US dollar is dancing naked on a high wire over the Grand Canyon.
Do we have paper bitcoin?
Our institutions actually buying up more than is being produced each day.
We have a finite number of whales who are turning over great hordes.
Some of the narratives out there suggest that maybe the big banks, blackrock etc, are just trying to shake our coins out of us.


I am glad that for the most part somehow I am able to just watch all this from a lounge chair.  Maybe drinking a white Russian.

And as of this moment, Bitcoin is six figures US dollars.

Lol.

stack more and hodl it while you wait.

Membership cost is 1 BTC. We are an exclusive establishment with ancient history, this is not for everyone. 

With quantitative easing and more interest rates cut in 2026 I just don't see how we can be in a bear market unless there is very bad things happening in the world. More tariffs, more wars or some other catastrophe. Let's wait and see