Even in this cycle, I think the volatility is not as high compared to previous cycles so in the future, we’ll probably see Bitcoin becoming less volatile than it was in the past. Well, I could be wrong cause this cycle bearmarket is not done yet and we still have probablity for Bitcoin to drop further.

But what I’m afraid of is that the volatility might keep coming because on the Higher Time Frame, Bitcoin is still in a megaphone pattern. If this pattern plays out, touching the upper trendline and lower trendlines could create very high volatility.

Cake wallet is good. They are open source and Also support other coins from different network aside from bitcoin plus on cake wallet you can kinda isolate a particular wallet so you have something like a lite coin only wallet or Solana only wallet etc.. as the case may be.

Only catch is last I checked just their swap area is closed source I think because that's when the wallet actually interacts with third party services . Aside that it's a fine wallet.

Based on my experience with tokens that migrated to a new chain, they do this on trend as part of their so-called rebranding and for their investor to believe that they are here for the long term; it's part of a marketing stunt if they lack support for their use case; migrating will not work.

You'd better take a look at why they are doing this: is it for a marketing stunt, or the need for a much better chain for the community and the project's long-term existence? Then decide.

From the coins that migrated from one blockchain to another which are TRON, EOS, and MATIC aren't doing so well in times of prices after their migration to another blockchain. But it's not enough reason to migrate your investments to another currency if the coins you invested in migrated since it's a 50-50 chance that the coins would do well or not after migration. Instead of you to migrate your investments and end up losing a lifetime opportunity that would have change your life, I will advise you to hold your investments and still invest in the currency you would have migrated your investments to, in order to increase your chances of being profitable in your crypto investments.

Not everyone has to run a full node but for those who value Bitcoin’s decentralization and verifying their own transactions, at least running a node is a good option, I ran Bitcoin Core myself.  Another big advantage is that you don’t have to rely on a third party server when you connect your wallet to your own node. Honestly this will actually give you peace of mind.

Before that I want to ask you if many people vote, so what is the value of one vote? The power of Bitcoin is that everyone can verify the rules themselves if they want.  The more independent nodes there are, the less the network will depend on a few large services or organizations. So even if your node doesn’t change the entire network, it makes you more independent in your use of Bitcoin and at the same time makes a small but real contribution to the decentralization of the network.

I have run a bitcoin full node earlier and to be honest, the main reason why anyone would run a bitcoin node is privacy and decentralization.
You don't have to depend on a 3rd party to use a block explorer to verify any transaction as you can do it yourself, thus you improve your privacy.
You contribute towards decentralization of the bitcoin network by adding your bitcoin node to the network.

The answer I would have loved to give is that, yes every Bitcoin investor should be able to run their own Bitcoin node but that's unlikely to happen because not everyone here is for the privacy that the industry offers. Some people are just here for the money gain from price appreciation and alot of them fall under this category. Still, if you have the privilege to run your own Bitcoin node then do it as it offers you a lot of privacy. I haven't ran a Bitcoin node before but that doesn't mean I won't try to do it in the future, just that I'm not that big yet in transacting with Bitcoin right now as it's accumulating I'm big on to position myself well for good wealth accumulation.

You are practically supporting the network with validation of transactions, propagation of transactions and blocks, and verifying blocks received from other nodes. If you choose to run a node, then you are enforcing the Bitcoin consensus rules on Bitcoin transactions and blocks, and you may also sometimes enforce policy rules on transactions. For example, Bitcoin Knots does not accept and relay OP_RETURN transactions with large amounts of arbitrary data under its default policy, most Knots nodes disable this option, while Bitcoin Core allows larger OP_RETURN outputs, but its default policy limits them to 100KB, unlike Knots with 83bytes limit. There are many other policy rules, but these are the reasons I have seen people run nodes to support the Bitcoin network independently.


There are benefits like your privacy. You get better privacy when you run your own Bitcoin node, and the statement "Don't trust, verify" means that if you do anything on the Bitcoin network, you are relying on other nodes. Besides, you are giving away your privacy anytime you do that. The node is going to have your IP address and your wallet address, and such data are what chain analysts use for statistics. In case you don't know, such data is expensive and is being sold to other companies that need it. In fact, people buy premium accounts to use such data.

Better guides on how to run a Bitcoin full node.
[GUIDE] The simplest Full Node guide ever.
[Guide] How to run a Bitcoin Core full node for under 50 bucks!

When you run your Bitcoin full node, you can run it with Tor, and use your node for broadcasting your Bitcoin transaction. You no longer depend on nodes of the others and with Tor, you will have better privacy.

https://learnmeabitcoin.com/beginners/guide/node/

You can run a Bitcoin prune node with Bitcoin Core too but remember that you should never download Bitcoin blockchain snapshot because you don't know what's inside the snapshot.

When you run a Bitcoin node, either full node or prune node, you must do your Initial Blockchain Download (IBD) that takes time but it is important to do by your own node.

Bitcoin Core pruned blockchain: download it here! (DON'T DO THIS!)

Running a Bitcoin node is not mandatory. People who choose to run a node intentionally want to support the Bitcoin network in the little way they can. Furthermore, running a Bitcoin node can help you understand how the blockchain operates. A node is one step to understanding the Bitcoin blockchain.

OP is not asking how to run a bitcoin node. He literally knows how to run a bitcoin node.

The essence of running a personal Bitcoin node, is because they want a privacy and they don't need interference of any body, so they needed to be independent of every transactions they carried out without a third  party, so it's not compulsory that everyone most run a Bitcoin node.

All your transactions will remain with you alone, it's same as having a privacy in all your transactions without interference of anyone...

I surely know that limited supply of bitcoin should not be a singular reason for volatility determination. Capital flow, whales attitude, market sentiment etc can also be an influential factor but limited supply is more guaranteed for lack of government manipulation. Government can manipulate the amount of their gold comes to the market through their mining and reserve which can direct volatility to their whims and caprices unlike bitcoin. Though government don't have direct control of the price of gold but they can influence or manipulate it through their reserve and their regulalatory mining policy. And so, why I said bitcoin is not a natural resources unlike gold, its mining doesn't depend on government heavy regulation, monitoring policy approval and control like natural resources like gold whose control is government.

In theory, it should. Because right now it requires a lot more money to be sold before it goes down, and it requires a lot more money to be bought before it goes up. That means the amount required ot make it be volatile is a lot more. Right now it is less volatile than before, and in the future it will be less volatile than right now. It is still more volatile than most markets, so we are not "there" yet.

Volatility will stabilise a bit more; we need some more time for that to become something that will be more stable. But at the end of the day, the path is that path, and we are going there soon enough. I think 2029 will be another bull run, and we are not going to see 300k+, for example; we may see 200k if it goes well, but that's about it. Back in the day, if I told someone the bull run would be less than x10, they would think I was mad; today we do not even expect it.

Just as how engineers can build softwares that should have taken several months in just a month using AI, the opposition parties can also break those softwares within a lesser period of  time it should have taken normally for them to break things without  the help of AI,all thanks to AI.

The whole coldcard thing is a close assumption , not an affirmation that AI detected it truly but AI is capable anyway.

No, they can run LLM locally and also find a way to connect to Internet whenever they need to without compromising their identities

That's due to the people who want to make money through the trading of gold, but I still won't consider Gold to be too volatile because Bitcoin is significantly more volatile than gold; even silver is also more volatile than Gold.
Nevertheless, we can't use the volatility of Gold, or Silver to judge BTC because they belong to different classes, and the core principles of BTC make it surpass both gold and silver.

I may be able to speculate on the level of maturity of the crypto market such as institutional adoption. These factors could indicate that Bitcoin's volatility in the future will have an impact on reducing Bitcoin's volatility.

Likewise with other factors such as the presence of current instruments such as Bitcoin ETFs and also the maturity of liquidity I speculate could have an impact on reducing Bitcoin volatility, This can trigger slow Bitcoin price movements, coupled with long-term capital stability caused by institutional adoption.

In general, when what I said above happens, even though we can see that the price of Bitcoin can jump suddenly at any time like halving speculation, the scale of the fluctuation. Volatility is no longer the same as at the beginning of Bitcoin's launch, because it can change the course of the crypto market, as such a situation can create sudden extremes in Bitcoin itself.

As the market cap of a certain asset increases, it's volatility decreases as it requires more liquidity for that asset to pump.

Gold's marketcap right now is approximately $28 trillion to $30 trillion USD with it's current price, and the main reason why we are seeing much lower volatility on Gold is because of how high the market cap it is. As for Bitcoin, the current market cap is around $1.29T which is way lower than Gold that's why we are seeing pumps and dumps. The volatility of it is way higher way back in 2017-2018 when there are some times where I'm seeing double-digit percentage upwards or downwards movement in just a single day. Today, that isn't going to happen anymore at least with Bitcoin.

Well as for your question, the only time that we will see Bitcoin being as volatile as Gold is when we see its market cap being the same as with Gold right now. Just don't forget, the higher the market cap, the lesser volatile it is and vice-versa.

Whether an asset is a natural resource or  digital asset has little to do with its volatility. What drives volatility is the size of the market, liquidity, adoption...not by whether an asset is natural or digital.

Gold is also a decentralized asset and no single government can control it.

Finally, I also disagree with the assertion that Bitcoin's volatility is entirely determined by supply and demand. Like any other asset, Bitcoin is affected by many factor, including monetary policy, capital flow, leverage in the market and investor sentiment. Supply and demand are fundamental factor, but they're not the only ones.

Everything that has advantage has an equal disadvantage. AI was intended to make work easier and simpler, but bad actors are leveraging on it to enhance their bad practices. This is not a problem with AI, but those that use it negatively. Digital products need to upgrade their security architecture because more is to come. Scammers are still building larger scale scam architectures, and let's not even think its the average scammers that pull this bigger threats.
Those who have the ability to pull off scams like ColdCard hack are well established scammers with insider information, so it's becoming obvious some big players in the crypto world have a hand in the recent hacks going on.

The vulnerability in the firmware has been detected, it doesn't need AI to do it. It's an error in the firmware integration. In the RNG generation, seeds were generated with PRNG instead of the proper hardware RNG and this allowed scammers to reconstruct the private keys offline and steal funds.

Like every other advanced tools, Ai is still a tool. It is not at fault if scammers uses it to enhance their methods. The problem lies in the scammers not the Ai because the tool in general offers a wide range of use.

The future is near, we can already see what Ai can do so expect more of it's use cases.

Yes, scammers exists before Ai became a thing or even got to advance like it is now.  Hackers will still be hackers without those tools. Ai is making work easier for them not that it is the tool leading to these hacks.

I look at it from a different angle but the conclusion is the same, as time goes by that Bitcoin becomes an attraction for anyone to buy and make an asset in his life will make bitcoin busty on the value that will be increasingly difficult to push to experience high increases, this is a form of adoption force.
But seeing the adoption and money that goes into Bitcoin is not yet like when looking at other assets that are very common among the community, so the upside potential is still quite large and although volatility will slowly decrease, my conclusion is that in the current cycles it is still quite possible to get big profits if you buy at a DIP price and a fairly steep decline after printing a new ATH, until in the end between the DIP price and the ATH price in a cycle the distance is getting closer.

You can also see the bitcoin daa with this chart.


Here it also shows that bitcoin is falling more and more volatility, and in the future it will also be like that, do not be surprised at such a situation, but what is certain from all the talk about bitcoin volatility is that Bitcoin will remain a powerful tool to fight inflation.

It is decreasing, not only regarding the absolute amplitude between ATHs and ATLs (bull market tops and bear market bottoms) but also regarding the average day-to-day volatility.

You can see more details in this thread: We're experiencing the least volatile bear market ever.

Here's an updated chart of 30-day and 60-day average daily volatility for Bitcoin:


Source: https://bitbo.io/volatility/

They used to provide also the volatility indicator for gold. Unfortunately, they ceased to do so, and I didn't find an alternative source for exactly the same indicator (there are many).

Historically however I have noticed that the volatility for the Brazilian Real (BRL, which is provided in the chart as the orange line) was similar to gold's , with values between 0.5 and 1%.

Bitcoin is the yellow line and currently at 1.26%. We can say that Bitcoin has, currently, approximately two times the day-to-day volatility in comparison to gold's historic values, because it often increases up into the 2% range.

In general, I think in the next early bull cycle I'd expect volatility values as low as gold, if no Black Swan (negative or positive) happens. At least if you draw a straight line alongside the current volatility average, it would cross the 1% line in a few years. See this older image where you still can see the gold value (yellow, although it only was updated until early 2024 (so the 0.00 value you see for 2026 isn't correct):

I think so but not because bitcoin will lose its purpose but because institutions will hodl more bitcoin than individuals and that will reduce demand and supply volume. Volatility is as a result of volume of trade and when the growth rate recorded becomes reduced, it may reduce volatility. Also, it may reduce especially in bear season because bitcoiners are now having better understanding of when best to invest in bitcoin. They wait for the time nearing halving so that their investment can speedily increase in a short time preceding the bull. So these factors may temporarily reduce volatility but not that government will control it or that the purpose of bitcoin as a decentralized digital currency has shifted.


IMO, no. Gold is natural resources and regulated by government but Bitcoin is not a natural resources and is not regulated by government. Bitcoin is not a natural resource.Bitcon is innovated by human as decentralized digital currency through computer coding, so it is independent of nature and can't be manipulated by nature. The volatility of bitcoin is strictly based on its limited supply and demand.

Gold has been around for over 6,000 years and it's still too volatile to be used for ordinary business planning.

So there's that...

The 3 things that always change the volatility of every asset, or commodity, are bigger market cap size, institutional accumulation, and mainstream adoption are things that have already happened to Bitcoin, which is why we see the change in the nature of BTC volatility through the change. I believe we already have the answer to your question if BTC volatility will keep falling in the future.

When it comes to the volatility of Bitcoin becoming stable in the future, I'm 100% sure that such is never going to be possible, but when it comes to its volatility being flexible in the future, and not falling massively in its price value, then such is very possible, because looking at th chart above about the previous Bitcoin maximum Bear market bottom after each All Time High. It's visibly possible that Bitcoin tend to be more stronger after it's previous All Time High. And just as it's previous Bear market bottom was 78%, and right now we have just experienced just 53%, I won't be surprised if we see it fall more to around 54%. Because to me, I think that's the least it could fall this period. But moreover, Bitcoin seems to have got a strong resistance at $60k.

People still consider gold market is volatile and it only has less volatility than Bitcoin market. Stock market is still volatile in a big nation with huge economy like the USA, to other nations like China, Japan, Germany and the others.

Let's see the rank for all assets by market caps.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

Bitcoin now is at the 14th position with 1.28T market cap and it has already become bigger than years ago, cycles ago. With very fundamental impacts of market cap, when it becomes bigger, it will become less volatile, harder to manipulate while an asset with bigger market cap and has maintained it a long time will be more secure and safer than other assets with smaller market caps or big market caps recently.

You can obviously see that it has decreased from how it was in the past. You stated it yourself, so isn't it normal for the volatility to keep reducing in future?
There is a reason why the volatility is reducing, so to determine if it will keep reducing in future, you have to look at the cause. The more the market cap of an asset, the less volatile it becomes. This doesn't mean people don't buy or sell that asset at a quick rate to cause volatility; it simply means that the market cap is so big that it doesn't get affected that much.
Take gold, for example; It won't do a 30% decrease, but if it does a 5% decrease, that means it has lost more than Bitcoin's current market cap.  It's not easy for investors to sell up to 2 trillion in a short time, but it's not that difficult to sell a billion or ten billion. So if the market cap is not very big, it would be more volatile.
The same way altcoins and memecoins are more volatile than Bitcoin. The more Bitcoin's market cap increases, the less volatile it will become, but it will still be volatile.

To me, it doesn’t make sense to move to another project just for migration. Either it’s your current holdings that you want to move to a migrated project, or you are currently holding the project that will be migrated. You really don’t need to move away anyway. Migration doesn’t mean the project becomes worse or better.

Migration just changes the chain; either it’s another chain or a native chain. Chain isn’t something that you can evaluate the project on; the main thing is how they are developing their projects. How they are trying to engage with the crypto industry. Creating a coin isn’t a hard task nowadays. It’s important how the team is working to push their products and projects.

It is possible that bitcoin will become less volatile as long as more people and big investors start using it but I don't really think we can say it is going to happen forever
Bitcoin is still smaller than assets like gold so big buyers or sellers can move the price very well maybe the swing will become smaller over time but I don't think bitcoin will stop being volatile anytime soon

What I think about Polygon and EOS and some other coins that I noticed is that the coin were not performing good before the migration. Example is the POL, it has been falling in price before the migration.

Ether migrated, but it increased during the time if migration.

If bitcoin migrate to another blockchain, I believe it will remain a store of value.

Are altcoins that have not migrated also good? I do not think they do. They are all showing us that they are deprecative assets.

It depends because this migration decision aims to expand the expansion of a project from network A to B that sees better opportunities. But of course not all projects are successful and get attention after migration, most investors consider migration as a failure of infrastructure governance and branded change the road map of the project in whole or in part. It used to be if I'm not mistaken BNB is an ERC-20 token and 2019 launched Binance Chain then the growth got better.

The decision to move investment only because migration has become a common thing, it just needs to be considered with the moment, whether the migration is right with the developing narrative such as ZK Proof, RWA, AI or the like.

One just needs to be extra careful and vigilant on telegram platform because scammers are very much active there. Since it supports anonymous identify,  one can hide behind the mask to do whatever they feel like and go their way. 
Since the inception of the telegram platform, there has been lot's of reported scam cases with people losing funds to scammers who lured them onto investing in projects and things they never thought of. Some of them come with gambling formats just ask you have said which I can attest that I too have had the experience in the past. But we can avoid such if we get information and be updated with happenings around the industry as that would keep us safe from their nefarious activities.

I was about to point out the countries with low inflation as well. They should be more examined and studied. I cannot comprehend how this inflation problem is a global problem as well. Almost every country has a big problem nowadays. Humanity should have been better at it and shouldn't have this much problem. Also, paper money isn’t the only problem, the problem is the mismanagement. Imagine a video game that gives you infinite coins, there’s a day when those coins are worthless. When corrupt governments print excess money to cover their errors or greed, the value of cash falls. This leads to higher prices. Competent leaders, presidents, governments and state officials can keep fiat money stable without extreme inflation.

Inflation has occurred not only in the modern era, but also since ancient times even when fiat currencies were used to replace gold or silver. So, what you said is true in the gold/silver era, inflation was lower because it remained stable due to limited supply even during wars inflation wouldn't easily occur. This is very different from fiat which is easily printed without limits making inflation easier and often higher.

In fact, the current global system has always been problematic and very difficult to replace. This is also why Bitcoin was created by Satoshi 18 years ago, even in the midst of the global financial crisis. Bitcoin purpose was to create a limited supply as an alternative to fiat money, which is easily inflated by central banks. Therefore, it can be said that the goal is to create money that is resistant to manipulation and inflation. To avoid the current inflation investing in Bitcoin is one way to combat inflation.

True. Printing money is not the problem. The problem is printing too much money faster than the economy can grow.

But I don't think high level corruption is the biggest cause of inflation. Inflation can be driven by many factors, including monetary policy, supply chain disruption, and geopolitical shock. Depending on the country, the causes will be different.

Venezuela is an example. Even before corruption made its economic situation worse, US and Western sanctions had already put enormous pressure on its economy. Or Iran and Russia, their inflation surged mostly because of sanctions and war, not really because of corruption.

You need to understand that addiction is a matter of behavior and self control, not knowledge or understanding. That's why gambling addiction is not limited to people with little knowledge. Even well educated and knowledgeable people can become addicted.

The same is true for trading. Whether you know a lot about trading or not, if you spend too much time on it, become obsessed with it and lose control over, those are sign of trading addiction. And like any other addiction, it rarely ends well.

What about the countries that have very low inflation rates? They are also using fiat currencies of their own, so it's not like wherever there are fiat currencies being used, the problem exists, but it is about how the governments actually manage everything. Printing money has never been the problem, excessive printing of it is the problem, because when the government prints more money and increase the supply, the currency starts losing strength and value, and that eventually becomes a problem for the economy, and slowly, problems such as inflation start to rise above the level no one have expected them to.

Even in countries where there is inflation and the supply of their currency has grown too much, there is a possibility for the government to control inflation but only if they do it. The biggest reason for higher inflation is corruption on the upper level, if government officials and those in control of the budgets and everything start keeping most of the funds for themselves and allocate lower amounts to everything, that is where inflation starts to rise.

I think the scammers will stop using those coins now and after a long time they will try to protect the privacy by using those funds in small parts and using them through mixers. If the mixer wants to, they can block that coins but they probably won't do that. But I believe that if the investigative agencies try to investigate it well, then at some point they can find some evidence. Scammers can go to an exchange platform at some point. But it doesn't seem like they will make such a mistake so easily.

If blockchain analysis companies research the transactions well, sometimes it is possible to find clue. After analyzing the source and transfer of those funds even after mixing, companies like Chain Analysis and TRM Labs and some others can get good results in many cases which can help in identifying those scammers. But there is no way to say that it will always be possible to do it accurately.