Bitcoin is king undebatably.

The four year cycle is now looking like a factor that does not determine the price of bitcoin in the future, it runs a game of it's own and is independent of any manipulation. No one can accurately specify when we would see a bull run, Bitcoin has left so many people guessing and could likely take us by surprise. Those factors that influences the price of bitcoin is not 100% guaranteed, so what really causes Bitcoin's price hike?

The distinction in between house edge and RTP is very important, but also as a gambler we should understand that RTP does not mean during their session they will personally get that percentage back. This is base on expected return over a large number of bets.
In the short term game with 98% RTP can still see a player loss heavily of win big. That why when deciding how much of risk, looking only at RTP is not enough, the player own betting behavior and variance can have a much bigger effect on actual result of a session.

I don't see the US having an easy chance of doing that, so it's not about the "small change" the US government wants to squeeze out of the exchanges. In fact, the narratives and propaganda they create themselves in this area cost billions of dollars each year. Let's say they just make random accusations against financial services, I see their motive in activating a wider surveillance zone "for free" in order to limit the financial activities of Middle Eastern militant groups.

If we will assume same bet infinite times then it’s a guaranteed profit in the long run assuming house edge is negative. The larger the sample bet means the result is closer on obtaining that house edge.

You brought up a very good factor which this guaranteed profit might not work even on a negative house edge. Those negative house edge is useless on short term games especially if the player bankroll can’t absorb the losing streak.

It will be a spam fest bet on this casino with same small bet if ever there’s a casino that will offer negative house edge. 

Did you understand what you posted? It is like you are saying what is not right because 50/50 probability does not mean 50/50 profitability.

The house edge is what that is causing those long unfavorable situations while gambling, just go with small amount of money that can let you go for more bets, it is possible also that the casino might lose.

Not sure if you can win in the long run despite no house edge.

50/50 probability does not mean 50/50 profitability.

You still need to consider luck here, what if you are unlucky and goes on a massive losing streak despite having a 50/50 chance? So this is in conjuction with what @ Darker45 has said.

Many cryptocurrency projects talk about technology, innovation, revolutionary features but Bitcoin is the best so far but Bitcoin actually inherited developments of cryptography in previous decades as well as projects during Bitcoin prehistory era.

Bitcoin is an accounting revolution.
Bitcoin shook the world.

Bitcoin not only talk about the project vision but it has been very successful so far.
The bullish case for Bitcoin.

Price prediction is a very hard task because markets and prices are unpredictable, and generalizing our lives are unpredictable too so I only have fundamental knowledge about Bitcoin, strong belief in it, and I will continue to do my bitcoin accumulation then holding my coin a long time.

Same here, I just saw some videos are read the commentaries. And it was said, that Bravo plays dirty, point deducted from him for low ball and then throwing Cruz in the canvass. I guess that's one strategy he thinks that he can win against Cruz here.

Nevertheless, as majority might have expected from Pitbull, he knockouts Bravo in the 6th round. It was a big left hand as obviously, Bravo is not going up from that huge punch from Isaac Cruz. Not sure if Ryan is interested on him, but the better option for Cruz is to wait the winner of the new WBC champion Dalton Smith vs former champion Albert Puello.

It's over. I haven't seen the full fight, but while exploring some Facebook posts, I saw some clips where Pitbull knocked out Bravo after landing a perfectly timed shot on the chin. So it really looked like an easy fight for Pitbull. Now the speculated fight with Ryan Garcia could happen in December or January. Congrats to those who bet on Pitbull winning by KO, the odds were around -230 before the fight.

You can watch it on DAZN, though I think there is a subscription fee.

You can also try searching on Facebook because some people stream the fight for free, but those streams sometimes get cut off once they are detected or reported. As for the time, based on the schedule it should already be starting now, although it may still be the undercard fights before the main event.

In fact the supply of [obsolete] goods increased at the same time that advanced goods increased. Do you think demand dwindles, or moves elsewhere? Money that stops chasing one good goes chasing another, which makes it a relative price move, not a change in the price level. If demand falls everywhere at once, that's the effective supply of money chasing goods shrinking, which is the second door.

Production cost going down is the same side of the equation as supply increasing, because for the same amount of resources we can produce more goods.

The two categories presented are for simplicity's sake. An exhaustive list of more scenarios is welcome.

For me, it's already happening, especially since Robinhood started to use on-chain, like they started to have their own layer 2 networks, which for me, it is a good start to introduce blockchain to institutions. It means if Robinhood can do it, for sure others will follow.
Regulation need to catch up first, that's why I also feel this will take years, not something next bull run hype. CZ talk is interesting, but for me still early.

I bet it won't happen unless CLARITY Act is passing and outside that, it's going to be offshore tokenized stocks. Speaking about facts, majority of tokenized stocks are simply synthetic price exposure and recently the CEO of AMC and CEO of Robinhood has been having a clash about the moral ethics and legality of offshore tokenized stocks. Even the SEC's innovation exemption is prohibiting IPO offering and only secondary market for already registered stock.

I'm not sure why they aren't advertising their services here on this forum but I've seen their advertisements on Coinmarketcap, and I think they might not know much about this forum that's why they aren't here or there might be another reason.

Casinos mostly target specific audience and that's why they advertise their services here but prediction markets might target different audience that might be the reason why they aren't on Bitcointalk.

Who knows in future we might see prediction market promotions on this forum but as of now they aren't here but still there's chance if new prediction markets get created then they might consider marketing their services on the forum.

There has been a series of promotional campaigns portraying custodian services as the best option. Some of these claims push the narrative that since these centralized firms are insured, customers have nothing to worry about, even if there are hacks or other security breaches. The cases of MtGox, Binance, and others are used as examples.

Hardware wallets might have their weaknesses, but their benefits are more. Those who have never lost money in exchanges because of government policies or flimsy excuses will not know the benefits of self-custody.

The advancement in AI technology will increase the rate of attacks on different Bitcoin hardware wallets. Following up on reviews on different reputable platforms would help us choose good hardware wallets.

I also noticed this a long time ago; Polymarket existed now for 6 years, if I remember well. Some casinos that are promoting their platform here, not much, but certainly some of them started this prediction market, but they didn't promote it big, and some have already stopped it and taken it off, just like Stake.

Reading your replies here, I have seen different opinions and answers, but none of them were certain or convincing to me. Regulations with the casino's license are complicated as well; there are some rules to follow if they want to start a market.

I really like how you view this.
This is my sentiments with it too.
Institutionalization is here and we just got accept it.
However I think the two can coexist and if an individual likes to keep their bitcoin with an institution they can, and if they want self-custody, they can.
Both will coexist and I love that.

My common sense reason for this is that
1. Some casinos now have the prediction market feature as part of the business.
2. Stand alone prediction market companies are still growing therefore, the competition is not so much that they would need to do adverts here.
3. May the prediction markets already predict this forum to be strictly gambling - casion, sportsbetting focus than on prediction and as such they may not be received with so much enthusiasm.

Many companies in diverse industries are not familiar with the Bitcointalk forum. Even if they are familiar with it, they have not seen an ideal reason to promote their platform on the forum.

In the meantime, Kalshi and Polymarket have already gained the attention needed. I do not see how running a promotional campaign on the forum will help the platform grow.

Not having a prediction market that does market promotion on this forum has nothing to do with license or jurisdiction restrictions.
As of the moment of posting this, I believe the major issue is that this forum marketing is something the prediction market is not familiar with. In other words, it is something that's currently not relevant to them, but that may change in the future, especially now that the 2 leading prediction markets are working on making the moves to inject crypto into the US prediction markets.

Even in the bitcoin community, there would be some folk left who were managing their assets wisely before bitcoin was a thing. I liked the explanation from d500, he clearly explained how I should approach . If you love something, taking benefit from bitcoin does not mean you are going to give a biased answer for bitcoin.

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yes the only tax I would need to pay is 10%  on the interest I am getting.

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22% for a short-term lockup might be a promotional offer. But 18% interest is a lot, according to my country. Since your inflation is too high, you would know the actual difference.

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Yet I still need to pay from bank when I am buying my grocceries. Bitcoin is a good alternative option but it did not get that much popularity that you can pay your daily neccessary with the Bitcoin itself.

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Let's assume I have invested my money in Bitcoin, and it goes from 100k to 200k. When I cash out, am I getting any extra money for inflation? cause in your opinion, Bitcoin is a guard for the inflation, and Bitcoin doesn't experience the effects of inflation. My bitcoin amount is sitting on 1 BTC, it is not increasing to 1.1, so basically the same theory can apply here, it is a misconception of yours.

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It is much riskier than bitcoin , If I would have consider this much risk with my portfollio than I would not have considered a safer investment through bank over bitcoin.

That's quite funny.

I tried looking at the same page, it feels weird that some of them are in France while the rest are in English though. Not to mention the listing feels a bit odd if I'm understanding it correctly. I can't verify if Binance is really serving North Korean, for example. Most news are about how they help other governments blocks accounts that was suspected being owned by NK hackers. CMIIW.

Building up a long term investment portfolio is important for wealth building but there are super important tasks of building up a strong and safe finance background, as well as plan for gradual profit withdrawals over time.

The gradual profit withdrawals over time can be used for enjoying life or enhancing emergency fund which can avoid risk of selling part of your bitcoin if your available emergency fund is not enough.

[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy.

I have never thought that an interest in a bank could be that high. All the time, I thought that Bitcoin is always the winner on this regard. But with that high interest some bank can offer, I am pretty sure that there is also a catch with that.

I can believe more in Bitcoin that it will only rise at the long run despite of its active volatility. Bitcoin's nature is also decentralized, which means we can withdraw anytime we need the money. Bitcoin is basically like a bank already, therefore there is no need for an actual bank anymore. And If I am going to diversify my funds, I will only do it on other investment instruments, so that they don't share the same risks. High interest rate alone cannot convince me to choose traditional banking, I mean, if in future, there could be a possibility of decentralized bank which deals with fiats, then I may consider and definitely not with the current traditional banking.

No problem men, I just noticed it there when I am lurking on some sections and so happened to aware that I know your username and checked this thread here. Actually I agreed with you and some here that situations like our username being used is out of control and we cant prevent them from doing that. Its just pose bad looks when someone who uses your username/alike being used for bad stuff on other forum. I assumed this kind of cases happened too on other forums besides these two.

I will prefer all to be in bitcoin and later enjoy the all time high and more money. Investments are here than savings to me.

It will be the normal tax which everyone are paying called income tax. But the problem is the inflation, that is what I do not like about savings, inflation will eat the profit.

Bitcoin market is unpredictable so it can have either long squeeze or short squeeze which causes sudden demand for on chain transactions like moving coins to exchanges for potential fud news or selling. The sudden on chain pending transactions will cause more load on Bitcoin mempools, and give Bitcoin miners more choices to pick best transactions in terms of transaction fee which is one part of their mining income.

To avoid any unpredictable situations with Bitcoin market, mempools and probability of your transaction (be stucked in mempools for 14 days before possibly dropping by nodes), using Replace By Fee RBF is very important. Having RBF for your transaction also avoid inconvenience of using Child Pay For Parents CPFP.

I dont know the exact reason behind this but I am assuming that these prediction markets offer local events and there is a huge chance that the outcomes of these local markets can be easily manipulated. Hence these prediction markets often avoid Bitcointalk, as Bitcointalk has experienced gamblers who have the knowledge and ability to expose unfair prediction markets.

Many new prediction market sites are being launched but instead of promoting themselves on the Bitcointalk forum, they are focusing on other promotional platforms. I have personally seen many Instagram reels about them. Though, I dont know whether they are actually avoiding the forum for this reason or not.

You know that the predictions market and Kalshi use a different model of business that's very distinct from casino platform and seeing that there are more casinos here, seeing that regulators are still trying to make the predictions market and Kalshi be guided by same casino platform regulations of which the predictions market and Kalshi see themselves as different, could all be reasons why they prefer to be or not be on a forum mostly dominated by casino platforms with more users.

Even if they are here and build a good exposure for themselves as they try to do on social media platforms, it might still be a difficult business that won't keep gamblers hooked in or stimulated and excited always as casino business is.
 

This can easily draw the attention of the masses with such a global level marketing strategy. Crypto forum communities can still be considered the most appropriate target since their activists are the ones with liquid capital and having the first hand experience with the predictive trading system.

Official ambassadors that are in charge of constantly monitoring the discussion are indicative of open mindedness in the long term. This can be done through organic loyalty by being committed and being committed through a two way communication, leaving people with a feeling that they are appreciated, way beyond the ability of visual promotions to leave behind the impressions on the minds of a wide audience.

There are prediction market that had come the forum before, futuur campaign managed by Hhampuz long time ago was a prediction market that once became popular, but not extremely over popular like polymarket and Kalshi. The market only uses Bitcoin and ohms token for prediction.

The ohms token is the native token on the platform, they can be rewarded but it's not a real money, Futuur explains that the ohms token is given to new registrant as a demo token for predicting and testing the various markets on their platform.

But why would they do that? There is probably some historic precedent here, if people who are running new casinos or looking to expand start asking around in networks or doing research they will find that this is the best place to establish their presence and reputation. It has to do with the precedent of others doing this for a long time and consistently. Prediction markets became very big and relevant as a new innovation without having to come to a forum like this at all. They were very connected to the crypto industries since the founding, and because of that they have no need to have a presence on this forum. I don't think they will benefit at all, and even less so the big names that almost everyone knows by now like Polymarket.

Yeah I don't see licenses being related with this.

I think what they focus with is on the other ways of marketing through social media. I have seen some ads on the other platforms for the two, kalshi and polymarket.

But it's going to give them more boost if they'll also advertise in the forum where they know that this is the target niche and everyone has cryptocurrency to bet on their prediction market.

And even not a signature campaign but by just being active in the forum and having a representative and thread, show they care for this community but we don't know.

You can't compare the relative comparison between crypto casinos to that of prediction markets currently in the gambling industry, because just as we have thousands of crypto casinos, when it comes to prediction markets, they are only few at the moment and apart from Polymarket and Kalshi that is popularly known due to their short success in this type of gambling, I doubt if the rest upcoming prediction markets already know the potential exposure this forum has to offer to every type of online gambling that has to do with the use of Bitcoin and crypto as it's primary currency. Moreover, the prediction market as an industry is just 4years old, which got its massive attention during the 2023 US presidential election, and hopefully with time we are likely to start seeing them launch campaign here.

Yes, perhaps currently on this forum there are no representatives of prediction market sites operating here such as Polymarket, Kalshi and others.

But for now the communication in this forum only discusses the transition of crypto casino platforms to prediction markets and also discussions about identifying the main trends of prediction markets, as well as about Platform Integration such as Trust Wallet, sports betting sites and so on. integrate into prediction markets.

Who knows, maybe in the future we will see on Bitcointalk a gradual migration of official prediction market platforms and their representatives, most likely there is no prediction market yet on Bitcointalk because prediction markets are not as numerous as online casinos.

Ive seen this User had the same username of a prominent forum member here but without a teleported tagged but its not active anymore. Also checked the post history and the last posts was used in some giveaways.

The user stats also shown been active on Nigeria Local section, but Im pretty know that the user with that username here came from our local Philippines. So clearly a different user from the one here. Though the altcoinstalk account isnt active anymore. If @Darker45 decided to teleport his account on the alt forum. What will happened on the nigerian account? Will it be deleted?

Everyone's fighting for their personal interests regardless of whether it means well for the society, people like Jack Dorsey are why there's a saying that "if you can't beat them, join them". That's the only reason why a Bitcoin maximalist would apply for a banking charter to establish a bank that would custody Bitcoin, it's goes against self custody and decentralisation.

Bitcoin has become so valuable and adopted for different purposes, mostly as a store of value currently so people shouldn't expect that it should only be seen as a peer-to-peer currency as formally known. It's still serving that purpose and more, depending on believers use case for it.

Also, prediction markets are manipulated.

I trust a casino more because the regulation on gambling is tried and tested. With prediction markets there is still confusion on how to regulate it and people are using loopholes all the time to the disadvantage of everyone else.

because the sector is very profitable and you don't have to face too many expenses to make him come.
obviously with all this competition the casinos have to invent bonuses and fun games otherwise there is a risk that users will go to the new one that offers more bonuses to acquire users

Like they are running a sig campaign and other type of promotion here? But if you mean posting their thread to introduce their Prediction market site, there's actually few tried to post their platform here.

Can't provide a link, since I don't know if they are safe to use or maybe just another scam.

But you could try to go in gambling section then search Prediction market keyword, then there are similar sites will pop up as result.

I think licensing is far from the only reason, a prediction market needs enough participants who are willing to take opposite sides of the same market. If there aren’t enough users, you get wide spreads, bad prices, and practically empty markets. As a result, new users aren’t interested in trading there, and without new users, there’s no liquidity. It becomes a vicious circle.
There’s also the problem of creating and settling the markets themselves. Someone has to properly define the conditions of an event, choose reliable sources for the outcome, and resolve disputed situations.

 I expect a different scenario instead: existing large crypto casinos and sportsbooks will gradually start adding prediction markets to their platforms. They already have users, capital, marketing, and payment infrastructure, so it will be much easier for them to solve the main problem of a new prediction market - the lack of initial liquidity.

With prediction markets, you need volume!

In casinos it's simple, one hundred guys with $10 dollars come and play slots, the slot provider takes care of the rest, they put a bet on Bayern, the odds provider takes care of the money and payouts, with prediction markets, they come and see the market has 5$ on it so if you bet $10 you break it and everyone goes away, with a casino and a traditional sportsbook the number of players on the site has nothing to do with the potential payout.

There have been plenty of cheap clones around, they've all died because of the same thing: people open the market board and see there is little activity they close it down and go to the big ones.

Licenses have nothing to do with it.