There are prediction market that had come the forum before, futuur campaign managed by Hhampuz long time ago was a prediction market that once became popular, but not extremely over popular like polymarket and Kalshi. The market only uses Bitcoin and ohms token for prediction.

The ohms token is the native token on the platform, they can be rewarded but it's not a real money, Futuur explains that the ohms token is given to new registrant as a demo token for predicting and testing the various markets on their platform.

But why would they do that? There is probably some historic precedent here, if people who are running new casinos or looking to expand start asking around in networks or doing research they will find that this is the best place to establish their presence and reputation. It has to do with the precedent of others doing this for a long time and consistently. Prediction markets became very big and relevant as a new innovation without having to come to a forum like this at all. They were very connected to the crypto industries since the founding, and because of that they have no need to have a presence on this forum. I don't think they will benefit at all, and even less so the big names that almost everyone knows by now like Polymarket.

Yeah I don't see licenses being related with this.

I think what they focus with is on the other ways of marketing through social media. I have seen some ads on the other platforms for the two, kalshi and polymarket.

But it's going to give them more boost if they'll also advertise in the forum where they know that this is the target niche and everyone has cryptocurrency to bet on their prediction market.

And even not a signature campaign but by just being active in the forum and having a representative and thread, show they care for this community but we don't know.

You can't compare the relative comparison between crypto casinos to that of prediction markets currently in the gambling industry, because just as we have thousands of crypto casinos, when it comes to prediction markets, they are only few at the moment and apart from Polymarket and Kalshi that is popularly known due to their short success in this type of gambling, I doubt if the rest upcoming prediction markets already know the potential exposure this forum has to offer to every type of online gambling that has to do with the use of Bitcoin and crypto as it's primary currency. Moreover, the prediction market as an industry is just 4years old, which got its massive attention during the 2023 US presidential election, and hopefully with time we are likely to start seeing them launch campaign here.

Yes, perhaps currently on this forum there are no representatives of prediction market sites operating here such as Polymarket, Kalshi and others.

But for now the communication in this forum only discusses the transition of crypto casino platforms to prediction markets and also discussions about identifying the main trends of prediction markets, as well as about Platform Integration such as Trust Wallet, sports betting sites and so on. integrate into prediction markets.

Who knows, maybe in the future we will see on Bitcointalk a gradual migration of official prediction market platforms and their representatives, most likely there is no prediction market yet on Bitcointalk because prediction markets are not as numerous as online casinos.

Ive seen this User had the same username of a prominent forum member here but without a teleported tagged but its not active anymore. Also checked the post history and the last posts was used in some giveaways.

The user stats also shown been active on Nigeria Local section, but Im pretty know that the user with that username here came from our local Philippines. So clearly a different user from the one here. Though the altcoinstalk account isnt active anymore. If @Darker45 decided to teleport his account on the alt forum. What will happened on the nigerian account? Will it be deleted?

Everyone's fighting for their personal interests regardless of whether it means well for the society, people like Jack Dorsey are why there's a saying that "if you can't beat them, join them". That's the only reason why a Bitcoin maximalist would apply for a banking charter to establish a bank that would custody Bitcoin, it's goes against self custody and decentralisation.

Bitcoin has become so valuable and adopted for different purposes, mostly as a store of value currently so people shouldn't expect that it should only be seen as a peer-to-peer currency as formally known. It's still serving that purpose and more, depending on believers use case for it.

Also, prediction markets are manipulated.

I trust a casino more because the regulation on gambling is tried and tested. With prediction markets there is still confusion on how to regulate it and people are using loopholes all the time to the disadvantage of everyone else.

because the sector is very profitable and you don't have to face too many expenses to make him come.
obviously with all this competition the casinos have to invent bonuses and fun games otherwise there is a risk that users will go to the new one that offers more bonuses to acquire users

Like they are running a sig campaign and other type of promotion here? But if you mean posting their thread to introduce their Prediction market site, there's actually few tried to post their platform here.

Can't provide a link, since I don't know if they are safe to use or maybe just another scam.

But you could try to go in gambling section then search Prediction market keyword, then there are similar sites will pop up as result.

I think licensing is far from the only reason, a prediction market needs enough participants who are willing to take opposite sides of the same market. If there aren’t enough users, you get wide spreads, bad prices, and practically empty markets. As a result, new users aren’t interested in trading there, and without new users, there’s no liquidity. It becomes a vicious circle.
There’s also the problem of creating and settling the markets themselves. Someone has to properly define the conditions of an event, choose reliable sources for the outcome, and resolve disputed situations.

 I expect a different scenario instead: existing large crypto casinos and sportsbooks will gradually start adding prediction markets to their platforms. They already have users, capital, marketing, and payment infrastructure, so it will be much easier for them to solve the main problem of a new prediction market - the lack of initial liquidity.

With prediction markets, you need volume!

In casinos it's simple, one hundred guys with $10 dollars come and play slots, the slot provider takes care of the rest, they put a bet on Bayern, the odds provider takes care of the money and payouts, with prediction markets, they come and see the market has 5$ on it so if you bet $10 you break it and everyone goes away, with a casino and a traditional sportsbook the number of players on the site has nothing to do with the potential payout.

There have been plenty of cheap clones around, they've all died because of the same thing: people open the market board and see there is little activity they close it down and go to the big ones.

Licenses have nothing to do with it.

I like to talk about Terms and conditions applied to anything free on a casino. Even before the introduction of these bonuses, they know someone might just want to take advantage of it by creating different accounts and claiming the bonuses, then the placing a withdrawal for the "free money" to be paid directly into their wallets. If this is how it works, every single casino that offers a bonus option should have gone bankrupt by now.
So it's clear that bonuses are simply for promotional purposes only, not to make the gambler more profitable.

Those certification coming from HACCP and ISO is supposed to give guarantee that the product have nice quality then guaranteed safe. But unfortunately in practice this became just an checkbox, rather than implement its real purpose.

I think it same risk might be applied to the Halal certification and if they became so bureaucratic, people might just do a shortcut and they might just chase to get a paper. Rather than following its real principle.

People need to know that credibility sometimes cannot be measured by certificate or the stickers they put there, but rather this is all about if they meet those standards and can make sure that everything is safe to use consume by people.

Similar but not identical, in marketing term, yes commoditatization used to attract more modern consumer segment like eco friendly or organic trends, the differences lays on whether there is an authorized institution to regulate and issue it. Halal has  standardization certification which is a cross border technical regulation subject to legal audit and i think the process to get this label very strict equivalent to ISO or HACCP quality certification. I see it as global supply chain system controller treat it as a must physical quality standard.


Let me reminder that halal business has different track with sharia economy. Non interest business funding choice doesn't have correlation and direct operational impact on physical product quality which produced. Multinational corporation on non moslem country such as thailand and  Brazil produce halal certified product and they fund their factory with conventional commercial loan. Talk about halal business just focused on product instrument specification and qualification including its quality assurance starting from its raw material, how it processed must not have cross contamination with non halal material and how to maintain and ensuring hygiene protocols.


For solution we should be grateful to everyone who discovers digital technology today, with institutionalization of digital tracking standards and technologies, we can combat any bad practice from dishonest merchant / seller. I think when anything has its global ecosystem, system's engineer automatically implementing standardization protocols. The presence of official institutions and supply chain automation actually effective to eliminate room for human manipulation.

Hmmm, this is worth noting. If a Bitcoin maximalist can actually accept institutionalization, and even follow that trend, then I'm sure he's not the only one. A banking charter will be regulated, and centralized. Although, using Bitcoin for this won't create the inflation problem fiat does, but this represents what Nakamoto was fighting against.

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Yeah, I'm gonna kidnap him to a cattle wrench with my cowboy hat and boot, with his tailored suit, tie his hands behind his back, get him down on his knees with a shotgun to his head and say, "stop buying Bitcoin bro. Next time you do, it will be a bullet on your head" . Just kidding, I guess there's actually nothing we can do about Saylor buying or selling. All I really wanted was to know what we here in the forum really do think about the whole fiasco, nothing more—thanks for sharing your thoughts though.

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Thank you all for sharing your thoughts, I've read most of your comments, and I've seen that most of us here do lean towards being neutral and positive about the whole thing—only few are against, and I wish we had all cast a vote so as to have an easy reference.

Anyways, let's address some points—especially those criticizing the OP.

When I said centralization, I meant how people onboard the network, not the network itself being centralized. No doubt, I don't think individuals or institutions can actually change the codes—that's for the devs— but, they can change how adopters decide to onboard the space: which is, in a centralized manner—building a centralized system on a decentralized protocol.

Adoption has indeed increased, not just because of institutions buying in bulk, if you check the data, the number of active wallets have been increasing periodically—this post I made gave a little reference to this claim. When the spot ETF was approved, more trust was generated, more adoption and users were recorded. And this Centralization strips users of privacy in terms of KYC and registration during onboarding.

These institutions establish cooperation with government, which in turn creates regulations, which in turn create a sense of legitimacy and legalization, which in turn fosters acceptance.

BTW, my OP was never about Bitcoin is dead all thanks to institutions, neither was it that institutions controls a large chunk of money, so it has changed the decentralized nature of Bitcoin. It was about what we think about this and why do we think that. Thank you.

I hope these explanations clarifies my OP.

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Now, there are a lot of interesting perspectives here, most of us believe the pros outweighs the cons, and some believe otherwise, while some say it really doesn't matter, afterall, we can't do a damn thing about it.

If we say it's ok and normal for government to intervene in Bitcoin, doesn't this defeat the whole purpose of Nakamoto? (I know, this is the second time in this post I'm asking this) Satoshi created this technology to combat the government's and institutions like bank's control over our finances. Isn't this new development undermining that fact?

But then again, on the flip side, Bitcoin is no longer just a peer-to-peer payment system, it has evolved into something that can't be ignored—especially by the government, so, it is just a natural thing to have this type of intervention. As a poster said, it's a double-edge sword, we just have to compromise for the "greater good".

And we all are forgetting a very crucial point here. The Bitcoin system is made up of 4 unique sectors:
- The nodes
- The miners
- The devs
- And most importantly, the end users.

If the majority or higher percentage of user—which is the most crucial part of the network—undermines the essence of Bitcoin, don't you think they can influence the system as a whole?

P.S I know the other 3 are users too—because I know some of us will pick on that—but we all know what I mean by the "end users", right? They are the majority group in the protocol who are not actively participating in the direct running of the system, but rather invest and use the product daily.

I can relate how exciting is that executing/placing an order part, especially if the amount we set is mostly in favour of us. That is because there is a good chance that it may not be filled yet. So it is either we adjust them again the next day or keep going with that set values. That is how you play this game. In my case, it is a non-mainstream coin that I got from an airdrop last time is the coin that I used here. So I just set the bar low for it, just to liquidate it easily. I do also monitor the coin's value and other stuff to ensure that I don't miss any important updates with it. So I can say that it does affect my mental health a little (in a not so-good way) but good thing that I am graduate with it already .

We just have to wait till that day because it could turn the other way round just as it keeps changing like this, yes we hope our favorite wins the game but that can only happen if the winning is for him else the best wins, and seriously the cool part of the game is just this period that everyone one is on suspense guessing who is likely to win from their odds, funny how the odds might still change further more leaving everyone questioning how that was possible and changes again to the final win. Magsayo most have really be very good in his previous fights because lots of persons are already cheering for him, let see how it goes.

That is not how you interpret the odds, .. 1.70 means he is the slight favorite.


If he finds a good opening and the timing is right, I think he should go for the finish and win by KO. The result here could determine what kind of fight he gets next.
If he wins in an impressive way, then who knows, he might get another shot at a championship fight.

Oh ok that is cool if Magsayo will be the underdog and it's good that I have waited. Still a couple of days before the upcoming fight, Saturday could be the best time to see what will be the final odds at least 24 hours before the fight.

And since there are a lot of Filipinos here rooting for Magsayo, then I do hope that he will win this fight. And if the fight is just for 10 rounds, maybe he will have a rush to finish the fight and not giving the judges a chance as we might see a different result.

This is a significant shift in the ML odds, don't know the reason exactly for this shift but most probably some whales have already put their money on Andres Cortes upon seeing the press conference yesterday. Just like what i have said before, Cortes is a very live opponent for Mark Magsayo, he is undefeated and most likely his style of boxing would frustrate Magsayo and i wouldn't be surprised if this will go the distance and if that happens, Magsayo will be in trouble in the judges' scorecards but still i will put some money on him.

At our local betting sites, this is what the odds are:

Magsayo - 1.94
Cortes - 1.72.

So yeah there is a swing odds for Cortes and I'm surprised by that kind of movement. I haven't pull the trigger yet for myself. Still plenty of days for us Pinoy, not to overthink but how much we are going to put money on Magsayo as we will support him no matter what the odds are, or at least pick a better odds for us.

I wanted to post the same. OP is telling obvious things, that bad is better than 2*bad. I dont know what else should be discussed. If a person fail to get basic education, then nothing good can be expected from that person. I mean who could fail at learning to read, write and count? It is not necessary a person must do all that fast, but at least be able to do that. If a person does not want to get educated, that it is even worse.

Bitcoin is divine 

For nodes, yes they cannot be centralized because anyone can run a node in the basement.

But mining, I would cut in on that. Though it still follows Bitcoin principles, but a large mining pool has advantage over smaller ones.

Just what I think though I'm open for corrections, but considering the higher hash rates which the generates, it allows them control a large share of network computing power.

It still has a long way to go. Bitcoin is yet to achieve a large portion of it's purpose, one thing still holding it back is adoption plus regulation from many countries.

Bitcoin was meant to give freedom and not control. So those government still trying to control how their people use it are an obstacle to Bitcoins main stream.

The creator?

I doubt Satoshi would turn up even if something bad were to happen to the network.